FDI与出口贸易品技术含量关系的实证分析

以FDI与我国出口贸易品技术含量的关系作为切入点,选择通信设备、计算机制造业、医药制造业作为高新技术产业的代表,通用设备制造业、专用设备制造业作为传统制造业的代表。根据这4个行业1997—2011年利用外资与出口贸易品技术含量的数据,基于面板数据模型对高新技术产业和传统制造业FDI与出口贸易品技术含量之间的长期均衡关系及相关性进行实证分析。结果表明:高新技术产业利用外资与出口贸易品技术含量存在着长期均衡稳定关系,出口贸易品技术含量随着高新技术产业利用外资的增加而提高,并有明显的促进作用,而传统制造业利用外资对出口贸易品技术含量的影响有限。     

Local estimation for varying-coefficient models with longitudinal data

Varying-coefficient models are very useful for longitudinal data analysis. In this paper, we focus on varying-coefficient models for longitudinal data. We develop a new estimation procedure using Cholesky decomposition and profile least squares techniques. Asymptotic normality for the proposed estimators of varying-coefficient functions has been established. Monte Carlo simulation studies show excellent finite-sample performance. We illustrate our methods with a real data example.     

A Diversity Index for Model Space Selection in the Estimation of Benchmark and Infectious Doses via Model Averaging

In chemical and microbial risk assessments, risk assessors fit dose‐response models to high‐dose data and extrapolate downward to risk levels in the range of 1–10%. Although multiple dose‐response models may be able to fit the data adequately in the experimental range, the estimated effective dose (ED) corresponding to an extremely small risk can be substantially different from model to model. In this respect, model averaging (MA) provides more robustness than a single dose‐response model in the point and interval estimation of an ED. In MA, accounting for both data uncertainty and model uncertainty is crucial, but addressing model uncertainty is not achieved simply by increasing the number of models in a model space. A plausible set of models for MA can be characterized by goodness of fit and diversity surrounding the truth. We propose a diversity index (DI) to balance between these two characteristics in model space selection. It addresses a collective property of a model space rather than individual performance of each model. Tuning parameters in the DI control the size of the model space for MA.     

An improved two-stage procedure to compare hazard curves

Qiu and Sheng has proposed a powerful and robust two-stage procedure to compare two hazard rate functions. In this paper we improve their method by using the Fisher test to combine the asymptotically independent p-values obtained from the two stages of their procedure. In addition, we extend the procedure to situations with multiple hazard rate functions. Our comprehensive simulation study shows that the proposed method has a good performance in terms of controlling the type I error rate and of detecting power. Three real data applications are considered for illustrating the use of the new method.     

An approach to measure distance between compositional diet estimates containing essential zeros

For many applications involving compositional data, it is necessary to establish a valid measure of distance, yet when essential zeros are present traditional distance measures are problematic. In quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA), compositional diet estimates are produced that often contain many zeros. In order to test for a difference in diet between two populations of predators using the QFASA diet estimates, a legitimate measure of distance for use in the test statistic is necessary. Since ecologists using QFASA must first select the potential species of prey in the predator's diet, the chosen measure of distance should be such that the distance between samples does not decrease as the number of species considered increases, a property known in general as subcompositional coherence. In this paper we compare three measures of distance for compositional data capable of handling zeros, but not satisfying some of the well-accepted principles of compositional data analysis. For compositional diet estimates, the most relevant of these is the property of subcompositionally coherence and we show that this property may be approximately satisfied. Based on the results of a simulation study and an application to real-life QFASA diet estimates of grey seals, we recommend the chi-square measure of distance.     

Book Review

DNA Microarrays and Gene Expression: From Experiments to Data Analysis and Modeling, by Pierre Baldi and G. Wesley Hatfield, 2002, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 213?+?xvi pp., [ISBN: 0-521-80022-6]     

Bivariate symbolic regression models for interval-valued variables

Interval-valued variables have become very common in data analysis. Up until now, symbolic regression mostly approaches this type of data from an optimization point of view, considering neither the probabilistic aspects of the models nor the nonlinear relationships between the interval response and the interval predictors. In this article, we formulate interval-valued variables as bivariate random vectors and introduce the bivariate symbolic regression model based on the generalized linear models theory which provides much-needed exibility in practice. Important inferential aspects are investigated. Applications to synthetic and real data illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach.     

Bootstrap methods for bias correction and confidence interval estimation for nonlinear quantile regression of longitudinal data

This paper examines the use of bootstrapping for bias correction and calculation of confidence intervals (CIs) for a weighted nonlinear quantile regression estimator adjusted to the case of longitudinal data. Different weights and types of CIs are used and compared by computer simulation using a logistic growth function and error terms following an AR(1) model. The results indicate that bias correction reduces the bias of a point estimator but fails for CI calculations. A bootstrap percentile method and a normal approximation method perform well for two weights when used without bias correction. Taking both coverage and lengths of CIs into consideration, a non-bias-corrected percentile method with an unweighted estimator performs best.     

Testing for parameter constancy in the time series direction in panel data models

We propose tests for parameter constancy in the time series direction in panel data models. We construct a locally best invariant test based on Tanaka [Time series analysis: nonstationary and noninvertible distribution theory. New York: Wiley; 1996] and an asymptotically point optimal test based on Elliott and Müller [Efficient tests for general persistent time variation in regression coefficients. Rev Econ Stud. 2006;73:907–940]. We derive the limiting distributions of the test statistics as T→∞ while N is fixed, and calculate the critical values by applying numerical integration and response surface regression. Simulation results show that the proposed tests perform well if we apply them appropriately.     

Opportunities and challenges of big data for the social sciences: The case of genomic data

In this paper, we draw attention to one unique and valuable source of big data, genomic data, by demonstrating the opportunities they provide to social scientists. We discuss different types of large-scale genomic data and recent advances in statistical methods and computational infrastructure used to address challenges in managing and analyzing such data. We highlight how these data and methods can be used to benefit social science research.