Family Policy and Complex Contemporary Families: A Decade in Review and Implications for the Next Decade of Research and Policy Practice

Prior Journal of Marriage and Family decade-in-review articles have grappled with the definition and role of family policy for research and policy practice while emphasizing its value to both. In this article, we begin with a broad conceptualization of family policy that encompasses actions intended to achieve explicitly stated goals for families (explicit policies) and those that affect families without an explicitly stated goal for doing so (implicit policies), which we believe provides a solid framework for guiding and understanding both research and practice in the field. Second, we review major U.S. policy initiatives in the past decade and their documented and potential effects on families. Third, we describe several key aspects by which contemporary families have become more diverse and complex. Fourth, we discuss the implications of ongoing family complexity for public policies. We conclude with a discussion about future research and policy development in the context of contemporary family complexity.     

计算知识论视域下的科学发现逻辑研究

在科学发现逻辑受制于描述性的传统研究路径，经历衰落和缓慢复苏的大背景之下，计算知识论为科学发现逻辑提供了一个全新的规范性研究框架。该框架不仅为科学发现逻辑做了系统性辩护，而且围绕发现问题的可解性做了许多规范性讨论。虽然其有关具体规范性的研究距离现实的科学发现仍然较远，但这一路径对未来发现逻辑研究走向的启发意义毋庸置疑。     

Abstractions on steroids: A critical realist approach to computer simulations

Computer simulations are increasingly used within various fields of the social sciences, including analytical sociology and computational social science. However, the method has yet to fully find its place within critical realism, generally regarded as reductionist and methodological individualist and thus inadequate to the task of grasping the full and enigmatic complexity of social life. This article contributes to the discussion by suggesting an alternative approach to computer simulations in the social realm. Instead of representing reality, simulations are seen as a way of boosting abstraction by enabling us to isolate and study the effects of emergent mechanisms. The need for such tools is growing more urgent in an age characterized by rapid change and global networks of causal interrelation. Hence there is a need not only for new tools to deal with causal complexity within critical realism, but also for a critical realist perspective to fill the meta‐theoretical vacuum on which the simulation approach is largely based. The approach developed here provides a challenge to the predominant ways in which simulations are utilized today, with increasingly sophisticated models aiming towards realistic representation on the basis of empirical data.     

城市废弃物资源化共生网络脆弱性影响机制——基于SCP与CAS融合的分析视角

在内外因素的交互干扰下,城市废弃物资源化共生网络表现得格外脆弱,探寻其脆弱性的理论内涵、影响因素及其作用机制是开展脆弱性治理的前提。借鉴复杂系统脆弱性理论,从能力和绩效两个角度解析其理论内涵,指出系统脆弱性在能力上可以用敏感性、适应性和恢复力予以刻画,在绩效上表现为增值性不强、共享性不足和生态性不佳。通过梳理国内外研究文献,从共生单元、网络结构、共生机制、网络氛围和环境不确定性5个维度提炼出脆弱性影响因素;以网络动态能力为结合点,将SCP（Structure Conduct Performance）和CAS（Complexity Adaptive System）两种理论有机融合,构建一个以共生单元素质、网络结构特征、共生机制属性、政策有效性为外因变量,以网络动态能力为中介变量,以网络脆弱性为结果变量,以网络氛围和环境不确定性为调节变量的理论框架。未来可利用大样本调查方法对该理论框架进行实证检验,探讨城市废弃物资源化共生网络脆弱性的形成机理。     

语句感知难度的层次分析佐证

汉语中存在许多名词修饰名词的偏正结构,如“父亲的父亲的父亲”等,这种结构潜在多种切分可能。通过语句感知难度的计算方法,可以发现这种结构的层次具有“左向切分”的普遍性。同时,语句感知难度的计算对一些传统的语句切分提出了质疑。     

Is There a Curse of Dimensionality for Contraction Fixed Points in the Worst Case?

This paper analyzes the complexity of the contraction fixed point problem: compute an ε‐approximation to the fixed point V*Γ(V*) of a contraction mapping Γ that maps a Banach space B_d of continuous functions of d variables into itself. We focus on quasi linear contractions where Γ is a nonlinear functional of a finite number of conditional expectation operators. This class includes contractive Fredholm integral equations that arise in asset pricing applications and the contractive Bellman equation from dynamic programming. In the absence of further restrictions on the domain of Γ, the quasi linear fixed point problem is subject to the curse of dimensionality, i.e., in the worst case the minimal number of function evaluations and arithmetic operations required to compute an ε‐approximation to a fixed point V*∈B_d increases exponentially in d. We show that the curse of dimensionality disappears if the domain of Γ has additional special structure. We identify a particular type of special structure for which the problem is strongly tractable even in the worst case, i.e., the number of function evaluations and arithmetic operations needed to compute an ε‐approximation of V* is bounded by Cε^−p where C and p are constants independent of d. We present examples of economic problems that have this type of special structure including a class of rational expectations asset pricing problems for which the optimal exponent p1 is nearly achieved.     

Working with and for the citizens

This article argues that a better management of increasingly complex socio-ecological systems would require to adopt evidence-based policy-making and improve the science–policy interface by means of participatory action research involving scientists, citizens and policy-makers. The connectivity between the production of scientific evidence by experts and the delivery of policies by policy-makers is currently unsatisfactory. There is the need to find more effective knowledge mechanisms between researchers and policy-makers. A new way of connecting scientists and policy-makers is to invite a “third player” to the game, i.e. the citizens and stakeholders who are interested in or affected by policy decisions, to perform pilot experiments of participatory research. Participatory research combines different forms of knowledge. “Objective” knowledge produced by scientific disciplines is needed to describe, explain or understand a phenomenon, but participatory research brings in the contribution of citizens' everyday knowledge, e.g. their intimate familiarity with their environment and social context. The approach is illustrated with the aid of examples provided by a number of EU-funded participatory research projects coordinated by ISIS: RAISE (www.raise-eu.org), MOVE TOGETHER (www.move-together.net) and AWARE (www.aware-eu.net).     

公平偏好如何影响开放式创新:一个基于计算经济学的研究

本文利用基于Agent的计算经济学方法和EWA学习模型,研究了不同公平偏好特征下创新主体对不同创新模式选择的问题。通过为Agent赋予四种不同的公平偏好类型:狭义的自利性偏好、竞争性偏好、差异厌恶性偏好和社会福利偏好,观察其在外向型开放式创新、内向型开放式创新、双向型开放式创新和封闭式创新四种创新策略之间的选择行为。研究结果表明:当创新主体具有狭义的自利性偏好时,封闭式创新和内向型开放式创新被选择的比例相当,并且多于外向型开放式创新和双向型开放式创新被选择的比例。当创新主体具有竞争性偏好时,封闭式创新被选择的比例又明显多于内向型开放式创新性。当创新主体具有差异厌恶性偏好时,外向型开放式创新被选择的比例也会明显减少,同时选择双向型开放式创新的主体基本消失。当创新主体具有社会福利偏好时,双向型开放式创新被选择的比例又会显著增加。     

Some notes on robust sure independence screening

Sure independence screening (SIS) proposed by Fan and Lv [4 J. Fan and R. Li, Variable selection via nonconcave penalized likelihood and its oracle properties, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 96 (2001), pp. 1348–1360. doi: 10.1198/016214501753382273[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]] uses marginal correlations to select important variables, and has proven to be an efficient method for ultrahigh-dimensional linear models. This paper provides two robust versions of SIS against outliers. The two methods, respectively, replace the sample correlation in SIS with two robust measures, and screen variables by ranking them. Like SIS, the proposed methods are simple and fast. In addition, they are highly robust against a substantial fraction of outliers in the data. These features make them applicable to large datasets which may contain outliers. Simulation results are presented to show their effectiveness.     

在线到移动环境下消费接受行为的演化研究:基于计算实验方法

构建实证数据驱动下的多智能体计算实验平台,用于研究从在线到移动环境下消费转移行为的动态演化机理。实验结果表明,所收集的实验数据与经典扩散方程拟合程度高,说明计算模型能反映真实系统的演化过程。广告在产品/服务的市场投放初期效果明显,随着广告强度的增加,消费接受效果并非明显。当市场中出现高消费休眠时,即便采用高唤醒策略,其移动服务消费接受水平也低。当休眠率远大于唤醒率时,市场成熟期后,移动产品/服务接受量下降,而在线产品/服务接受量回升。当唤醒率远大于休眠率时,移动产品/服务接受量水平可达到最大,并维持稳定。该计算模型和实验结果能为管理者提供电子商务行为决策方面的支持。