粮食产量时间序列的单分形检验及R/S预测

为探讨中国粮食产量的变化规律及趋势预测问题,采用配分函数方法,判定了1949年以来粮食总产量时间序列的单分形特征,并利用分析方法确定一个代表粮食产量变化趋势的时间序列的幂,从而得到预测粮食产量变化趋势的分形方法。根据历史资料,用此方法对中国粮食产量的变化趋势进行了短期预测,得到了变化方向上的一个估计结果。     

Stochastic Modelling of Times to Temperature for Furnaces Supplying Titanium Blooms to a Rolling Mill at TIMET

In conjunction with TIMET at Waunarlwydd (Swansea, UK) a model has been developed that will optimise the scheduling of various blooms to their eight furnaces so as to minimise the time taken to roll these blooms into the finished mill products. This production scheduling model requires reliable data on times taken for the various furnaces that heat the slabs and blooms to reach the temperatures required for rolling. These times to temperature are stochastic in nature and this paper identifies the distributional form for these times using the generalised F distribution as a modelling framework. The times to temperature were found to be similarly distributed over all furnaces. The identified distributional forms were incorporated into the scheduling model to optimise a particular campaign that was run at TIMET Swansea. Amongst other conclusion it was found that, compared to the actual campaign, the model produced a schedule that reduced the makespan by some 35%.     

新的哲学理念与假说

在人类探索真理的过程中,经常要提出科学假说。科学假说有两个来源:一个是人们的社会实践活动,另一个是提出假说者的心灵世界。科学工作者在对神秘现象的探测中,为了有一个设定的求解目标,往往就先提出科学假说。科学假说包含了人的创造性思维,它的产生是实践中的人的心理能力进一步发挥的结果。当科学工作者的创造性思维进入阴性物质世界进行探索时,本质上是在非平衡系统中寻找一种新的有序结构。无论是科学假说还是已经被实践证明了的科学理论,都是它所处的时代的函数。     

刑法身份诸问题研究

身份问题的研究在中外刑法中都受到一定重视。现代各国刑法普遍将身份作为设定刑事责任的存在或影响刑事责任程度的因素,以从犯罪主体的角度调整危害行为与刑事责任的关系,准确有效地打击犯罪。我国刑法理论虽重视身份的研究,但其研究的领域和层次相对泛化,对其分类、功能、身份获得途径以及研究意义中的诸多问题缺乏深入的价值探寻和分析。因此,在现有研究成果的基础上,提出新问题,进行新追问,构建新的研究体系是我们的初衷。     

论国际互联网对旅行社业的冲击

进入 2 1世纪以后 ,旅游越来越被普通老百姓所接受 ,旅行社作为旅游业的三大支柱之一 ,前景光明。但随着国际互联网的出现和广泛使用 ,给传统旅行社带来了巨大威胁。本文在详细论述互联网给旅行社带来冲击的基础上 ,指出在互联网影响下旅行社存在发展的机遇 ,提出旅行社生存发展的具体对策。     

文以载入功能在《古船》中的体现

《古船》的人学蕴涵在其思想意义的诸多方面占据着核心地位。其中的人物形象不但是作品形式构成的主角,更重要的,还是作品意义构成的主角,是作者极力思考的核心内容。作品文以载人的功能是不容置疑的。这主要体现在作品的情节、结构和人物自身上。《古船》的人学蕴含是其区别于同期作品的一个鲜明特征。     

Goodness‐of‐fit methods for matched case‐control studies

The authors propose graphical and numerical methods for checking the adequacy of the logistic regression model for matched case‐control data. Their approach is based on the cumulative sum of residuals over the covariate or linear predictor. Under the assumed model, the cumulative residual process converges weakly to a centered Gaussian limit whose distribution can be approximated via computer simulation. The observed cumulative residual pattern can then be compared both visually and analytically to a certain number of simulated realizations of the approximate limiting process under the null hypothesis. The proposed techniques allow one to check the functional form of each covariate, the logistic link function as well as the overall model adequacy. The authors assess the performance of the proposed methods through simulation studies and illustrate them using data from a cardiovascular study.     

Loss functions for estimation of extrema with an application to disease mapping

It is often of interest to find the maximum or near maxima among a set of vector‐valued parameters in a statistical model; in the case of disease mapping, for example, these correspond to relative‐risk “hotspots” where public‐health intervention may be needed. The general problem is one of estimating nonlinear functions of the ensemble of relative risks, but biased estimates result if posterior means are simply substituted into these nonlinear functions. The authors obtain better estimates of extrema from a new, weighted ranks squared error loss function. The derivation of these Bayes estimators assumes a hidden‐Markov random‐field model for relative risks, and their behaviour is illustrated with real and simulated data.     

The Colour of The Sky的中文翻译分析

科技文章的翻译须以严密性、准确性和客观性为宗旨。随着语言学科的发展,人们有更客现、更全面的方法来分析和评论译文。本文通过对译文《天空的色彩》语域特征和语域标志的分析,认为其做到了科技文章文体和行文方式的对等,意义相符和功能相似。     

论绿色消费方式的形成

绿色消费是可持续发展的消费方式,它的形成对人类可持续发展具有重要意义。论文主张从建立可持续发展的消费价值观,建立合理的财富分配秩序,调整经济结构和生产方式,并依靠科技进步和发挥政府的主导作用来促进绿色消费的形成。