Herd behavior and the quality of opinions

This paper analyzes a decentralized decision model by adding some inertia in the social leaning process. Before making a decision, an agent can observe the group opinion in a society. Social learning can result in a variety of equilibrium behavioral patterns. For insufficient ranges of quality (precision) of opinions, the chosen stationary state is unique and globally accessible, in which all agents adopt the superior action. Sufficient quality of opinions gives rise to multiple stationary states. One of them will be characterized by inefficient herding. The confidence in the majority opinion then has serious welfare consequences.     

论我国外贸代理制度的完善

从20世纪80年代起施行的我国外贸代理制度,在制度设计和实践操作上都存在着较大缺陷。本文以WTO对我国外贸代理制度的要求为指针,认为应采取转变对外贸代理制度的认识、整合外贸代理立法、改革我国外贸经营权制度等措施,完善我国的外贸代理制度,使其与国际商事规则接轨。     

市场调查:图书选题计划制定的关键

加强市场调查对提高图书选题策划的预测准确性作用极大。市场导向和市场反馈,将直接有助于出版机构了解市场的饱和点、空白点、热点、增长点和萎缩点,正确判断图书市场的现状和未来走势,进而在制订选题计划时更为合理地进行因势利导和科学决策。     

COMPARISONS AND SELECTION OF TWO-PARAMETER EXPONENTIAL POPULATIONS

For two-parameter exponential populations with the same scale parameter (known or unknown) comparisons are made between the location parameters. This is done by constructing confidence intervals, which can then be used for selection procedures. Comparisons are made with a control, and with the (unknown) “best” or “worst” population. Emphasis is laid on finding approximations to the confidence so that calculations are simple and tables are not necessary. (Since we consider unequal sample sizes, tables for exact values would need to be extensive.)     

风险投资家的双重逆向选择风险规避机制

风险投资过程中,由于信息的不对称,投资者与风险投资家之间、风险投资家与风险企业家之间存在着双重逆向选择风险。在融资阶段的信号传递机制中,作为代理人的风险投资家,选择融资计划书信号,向作为委托人的投资者传递其能力信号,投资者据此修正自己的先验概率,然后根据后验概率,与风险投资家签定合同规避风险;在投资阶段的信息甄别机制中,作为中间委托人的风险投资家先提供合同,这时唯一可能是分离均衡,即不同类型的风险企业家选择不同的合同规避风险。     

论《红楼梦》“十二金钗“的入选与序次

排座论次是中国古典小说的一种重要文化现象。“十二金钗”的入选 ,基于封建末世大家族的各种悲剧类型 ,但又着重强调了“十二金钗”的门第和出身 ,“十二金钗”的序列先后又体现了曹雪芹的爱憎情感和道德评价。通过对《红楼梦》“十二金钗”的入选和序次的考察 ,有助于我们加深对曹雪芹思想及创作心态的理解     

江泽民关于选拔和培养优秀中青年干部的辩证思想

江泽民同志于 2 0 0 0年 6月在全国党校工作会议上的讲话 ,充满了实事求是的精神和深刻的辩证思维风格 ,体现了鲜明的时代特色。他对新时期干部德才基本要求所作出的新的规定 ,是对马克思主义人才理论的极大丰富。他提出的“重发现同时重培养”的原则、“使用、培养同一论”以及“德才具体说”、“辩证的台阶、资历观”等 ,是对传统的人才理论的突破和对马克思主义人才学说的丰富和发展     

从战略高度切实加强对领导干部的主动监督

本文主要观点是:建立选拔任用干部的监督机制是我国目前亟需解决的重要问题,它关系到是否能将有中国特色的社会主义事业不断推向前关键不是出了问题以后的解决方法,而是要加强对干部的主动监督,防止干部腐败变质.千秋大业在于用人,在选拔干部时应遵循已制定的科学规范,并从几方面加强监督,在工作中不断完善监督机制,同时要强调对干部的教育培训,并将其作为实施监督的基础性工作.     

SHOULD WE ESTIMATE THE PROBABILITY OF CORRECT SELECTION?

Various authors, given k location parameters, have considered lower confidence bounds on (standardized) dserences between the largest and each of the other k - 1 parameters. They have then used these bounds to put lower confidence bounds on the probability of correct selection (PCS) in the same experiment (as was used for finding the lower bounds on differences). It is pointed out that this is an inappropriate inference procedure. Moreover, if the PCS refers to some later experiment it is shown that if a non-trivial confidence bound is possible then it is already possible to conclude, with greater confidence, that correct selection has occurred in the first experiment. The short answer to the question in the title is therefore ‘No’, but this should be qualified in the case of a Bayesian analysis.     

An alternative to model selection in ordinary regression

The weaknesses of established model selection procedures based on hypothesis testing and similar criteria are discussed and an alternative based on synthetic (composite) estimation is proposed. It is developed for the problem of prediction in ordinary regression and its properties are explored by simulations for the simple regression. Extensions to a general setting are described and an example with multiple regression is analysed. Arguments are presented against using a selected model for any inferences.