中小企业信用担保中逆向选择问题的数理分析

人们往往认为加强对企业的调查能够减少中小企业信用担保中的逆向选择.事实果真如此吗?通过建模分析的方式可以得出如下结论:只有当企业提供的抵押品的价值大于项目期望收入与担保费之差时,担保机构加强对企业的调查能减少逆向选择;当企业不提供抵押品或者提供的抵押品的价值小于项目期望收入与担保费之差时,加强对企业的调查反而会加剧逆向选择.     

A stopping rule for structure-preserving variable selection

A stopping rule is provided for the backward elimination process suggested by Krzanowski (1987a) for selecting variables to preserve data structure. The stopping rule is based on perturbation theory for Procrustes statistics, and a small simulation study verifies its suitability. Some illustrative examples are also provided and discussed.     

Union Formation and Depression: Selection and Relationship Effects

Many studies have established that married people fare better than their never‐married counterparts in terms of psychological well‐being. It is still unclear, however, whether this advantage is due primarily to beneficial effects of marriage or to the selection of psychologically healthier individuals into marriage. This study employs data on young adults from both waves of the National Survey of Families and Households to test hypotheses based on both selection (N= 878) and relationship (N= 722) effects. Further, we differentiate union formation into cohabitation and marriage with and without prior cohabitation. Results indicate no evidence of selection of less depressed persons into either marriage or cohabitation, but a negative effect of entry into marriage on depression, particularly when marriage was not preceded by cohabitation.     

信息不对称与我国商业银行经营管理

信息不对称是导致金融运行效率低下的重要原因。通过对产权制度、组织结构和经营管理体制的分析，发现我国商业银行经营管理中存在着严重的信息不对称。为此，商业银行应从再造信息载体、理顺信息通道、建立信息控制系统和完善信息表现形式四个方面来解决信息不对称现象。     

Local Linear Additive Quantile Regression

Abstract.  We consider non-parametric additive quantile regression estimation by kernel-weighted local linear fitting. The estimator is based on localizing the characterization of quantile regression as the minimizer of the appropriate 'check function'. A backfitting algorithm and a heuristic rule for selecting the smoothing parameter are explored. We also study the estimation of average-derivative quantile regression under the additive model. The techniques are illustrated by a simulated example and a real data set.     

A generalized predictive criterion for model selection

Given a random sample from some unknown model belonging to a finite class of parametric models, assume that the estimate of the density of a future observation is of interest San Martini & Spezzaferri (1984) proposed for this problem a predictive criterion based on the logarithmic utility function. The present authors investigate a generalization of this criterion that uses as a loss function an element of the class of α‐divergences discussed by Ali & Silvey (1966) and Csiszár (1967). They also discuss briefly the case in which the class of models considered is not exhaustive.     

作业成本法下的成本动因选择研究

Homburg教授提出了作业成本法下成本动因的最优化选择模型，但是并没有对该模型要依赖的成本动因集合进行相关性分析。不能保证所选择成本动因的相关性和独立性。本文在Homburg教授的模型基础上，运用偏相关性分析和假设检验，保证了所选择成本动因的相关性和独立性，从而避免了Homburg教授的模型可能得出的不合理结果。     

文化模式对产业选择的影响和作用

产业选择实质上是一个地区社会对生存与发展方式的选择,一个地区的文化模式必然会对其产业选择产生影响和作用。因此,贫困地区的产业选择要考虑与当地社会文化模式相契合——即两者在价值系统、技术系统以及组织系统上具有同构性。只有得到当地社会文化的认同和选择,产业才能得以发展和形成优势。     

A Lack-of-Fit Test for Heteroscedastic Regression Models via Cosine-Series Smoothers

In this paper, a test is derived to assess the validity of heteroscedastic nonlinear regression models by a non‐parametric cosine regression method. For order selection, the paper proposes a data‐driven method that uses the parametric null model optimal order. This method yields a test that is asymptotically normally distributed under the null hypothesis and is consistent against any fixed alternative. Simulation studies that test the lack of fit of a generalized linear model are conducted to compare the performance of the proposed test with that of an existing non‐parametric kernel test. A dataset of esterase levels is used to demonstrate the proposed method in practice.     

Asymptotics and Criticality for a Correlated Bernoulli Process

A generalized binomial distribution that was proposed by Drezner & Farnum in 1993 comes from a correlated Bernoulli process with interesting asymptotic properties which differ strikingly in the neighbourhood of a critical point. The basic asymptotics and a short‐range/long‐range dependence dichotomy are presented in this note.