我国法治视野下刑罚目的的理性选择

刑罚目的是整个刑罚理论的基石,在刑罚目的理论中报应论与预防论的争论由来已久。由于我国法治的特殊背景和特殊预防自身理论的缺陷,注重特殊预防论在我国已没有存在的根基,相反却偏离了法治的方向。在基于刑罚目的二元论和综合衡量后,报应论前提下的一般预防是我们当前法治视野下的最佳选择。     

Factor Multivariate Stochastic Volatility via Wishart Processes

This paper proposes a high dimensional factor multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) model in which factor covariance matrices are driven by Wishart random processes. The framework allows for unrestricted specification of intertemporal sensitivities, which can capture the persistence in volatilities, kurtosis in returns, and correlation breakdowns and contagion effects in volatilities. The factor structure allows addressing high dimensional setups used in portfolio analysis and risk management, as well as modeling conditional means and conditional variances within the model framework. Owing to the complexity of the model, we perform inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation from the posterior distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the efficiency of the estimation algorithm. We illustrate our model on a data set that includes 88 individual equity returns and the two Fama-French size and value factors. With this application, we demonstrate the ability of the model to address high dimensional applications suitable for asset allocation, risk management, and asset pricing.     

论行政处罚的“一事不再罚”原则

"一事不再罚"原则的规定是为了防止处罚机关滥用职权对相对人同一违法行为以同一事实理由处以多次行政处罚."一事"指符合一个行政违法构成要件的行为;"不再罚"指除非法律有特别规定,行政主体只能给予一次处罚.复杂的事数形态和法条竞合领域也应贯彻"一事不再罚"原则.     

单位普通累犯制度立法价值评判

刑法应当增设单位普通累犯制度。其构成要件之前后罪都应是故意犯罪 ,时间条件是后罪发生在单位直接负责的主管人员或其他直接责任人员因单位犯罪被判处有期徒刑以上刑罚的判决生效以后五年内 ,且前后罪中直接主管人员和其他直接责任人员均被判处有期徒刑以上刑罚。     

Reduced Rank Discrimination

In this paper the problem of classifying an individual with p characteristics into one of k multivariate normal distributions with common unknown covariance matrix is considered when the matrix of ( k +1) means has a linear structural relationship, that is, it lies in an r -dimensional plane, where r 相似文献   

狱内行刑社会化的价值及其实现

行刑社会化的含义虽十分广泛,但狱内行刑社会化因较集中体现了自由刑与社会化的冲突而具有代表性.纯粹理性意义上的自由刑的本质应当仅仅限于将犯罪人限制在特定的活动空间里,但在实际执行时却必然产生种种负价值.行刑社会化作为执行自由刑宽和化的措施必然有利于消减这些负价值.累进处遇居于行刑社会化中心地位.我国狱内行刑社会化的横向分类重点在对监内罪犯的再次分类,建议以自然标准、犯罪标准和人格标准逐渐推进.纵向分级建议取消特严管理甚至一般严管并加大宽管的力度,其特宽管理可以考虑建立开放式监狱和半自由刑制度.操作上主要包括设立省级和狱内分类中心、将监狱分隔为普通管区、宽管区和特宽管区三部分以及实现罪犯的区际流动.     

伽马分布的形状参数的一种估计

本文利用服从伽马分布的随机变量 X 与其逆 X~(-1)的协方差只与形状参数有关这一性质,给出伽马分布形状参数的所谓自逆协方差估计,进而构造了相应的无偏估计,并证明了这类估计的大样本性质:强相合性以及渐近正态性。     

MULTIVARLYTE ANALYSIS OF CLUSTERED SURVEY DATA: TESTING EQUALITY OF COVARLANCE MATRICES

The problem of testing the hypothesis of equality of covariance matrices in the presence of two-stage sampling is considered. Asymptotic test procedures based on linearization, grouping and jackknifing with or without transformation are proposed. The finite sample properties of these procedures are investigated in sampling experiments both from simulated known distributions and from a natural population.     

Empirical assessment of present value relations

This paper summarizes the literature on estimation and testing of present value relations. Twenty-four test statistics are illustrated and compared in a simulation experiment utilizing six different data generation models. The test statistics are calculated for actual Standard and Poor's 500 annual stock price and dividend data, and the results are interpreted in light of the Monte Carlo experiments.     

“The Motherhood Wage Gap for Women in the United States: The Importance of College and Fertility Delay”

One of the stylized facts from the past 30 years has been the declining rate of first births before age 30 for all women and the increase rate of first births after age 30 among women with four-year college degrees (Steven P. Martin, Demography, 37(4), 523–533, 2000). What are some of the factors behind womens decision to postpone their childbearing? We hypothesize that the wage difference often observed between like-educated mothers and non-mothers (Jane Waldfogel, Journal of Labor Economics, 16, 505–545, 1998a; Journal of Economic Perspectives 12(1) 137–156, 1998b) may be affected by the postponement of childbearing until after careers are fully established. Hence, we focus on college-educated women because they are typically more career-oriented than their non-college educated counterparts and also the group most often observed postponing maternity. We use individual-level data on women from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79) in order to control for individual-level unobserved heterogeneity as well as human capital characteristics, such as actual work experience, in our empirical analysis. We estimate wage equations, first producing base-line results to compare to the existing literature. Then, we expand the basic wage equation model to address fundamental econometric issues and the education/fertility issue at hand. Our empirical findings are two-fold. First, we find that college-educated mothers do not experience a motherhood wage penalty at all. In fact, they enjoy a wage boost when compared to college-educated childless women. Second, fertility delay enhances this wage boost even further. Our results provide an explanation for the observed postponement of maternity for educated women. We argue that the wage boost experienced by college-educated mothers may be the result of their search for family–friendly work environments, which, in turn, yields job matches with more female-friendly firms offering greater opportunities for advancement.JEL Codes: J13 and J3