Maximum likelihood analysis of the mixed model: the balanced case

The primary purpose of this paper is to develop, analytically, the inverse of the covariance matrix for the mixed analysis-of-variance model with balanced data. The use of this matrix in the identification of minimal sufficient statistics and in developing the likelihood equations is illustrated.     

Sojourning With the Homogeneous Poisson Process

In this pedagogical article, distributional properties, some surprising, pertaining to the homogeneous Poisson process (HPP), when observed over a possibly random window, are presented. Properties of the gap-time that covered the termination time and the correlations among gap-times of the observed events are obtained. Inference procedures, such as estimation and model validation, based on event occurrence data over the observation window, are also presented. We envision that through the results in this article, a better appreciation of the subtleties involved in the modeling and analysis of recurrent events data will ensue, since the HPP is arguably one of the simplest among recurrent event models. In addition, the use of the theorem of total probability, Bayes’ theorem, the iterated rules of expectation, variance and covariance, and the renewal equation could be illustrative when teaching distribution theory, mathematical statistics, and stochastic processes at both the undergraduate and graduate levels. This article is targeted toward both instructors and students.     

Robust estimation of a high-dimensional integrated covariance matrix

In this article, we consider a robust method of estimating a realized covariance matrix calculated as the sum of cross products of intraday high-frequency returns. According to recent articles in financial econometrics, the realized covariance matrix is essentially contaminated with market microstructure noise. Although techniques for removing noise from the matrix have been studied since the early 2000s, they have primarily investigated a low-dimensional covariance matrix with statistically significant sample sizes. We focus on noise-robust covariance estimation under converse circumstances, that is, a high-dimensional covariance matrix possibly with a small sample size. For the estimation, we utilize a statistical hypothesis test based on the characteristic that the largest eigenvalue of the covariance matrix asymptotically follows a Tracy–Widom distribution. The null hypothesis assumes that log returns are not pure noises. If a sample eigenvalue is larger than the relevant critical value, then we fail to reject the null hypothesis. The simulation results show that the estimator studied here performs better than others as measured by mean squared error. The empirical analysis shows that our proposed estimator can be adopted to forecast future covariance matrices using real data.     

Expected and unexpected values of individual Mahalanobis distances

This paper derives first-order sampling moments of individual Mahalanobis distances (MDs) in cases when the dimension p of the variable is proportional to the sample size n. Asymptotic expected values when n, p → ∞ are derived under the assumption p/n → c,?0 ? c < 1. It is shown that some types of standard estimators remain unbiased in this case, while others are asymptotically biased, a property that appears to be unnoticed in the literature. Second-order moments are also supplied to give some additional insight to the matter.     

投资组合协方差矩阵的性质与最优组合的选择

投资组合协方差矩阵的正定性向来被研究人员所默认,从而对于非正定的情形研究不多。本文对协方差矩阵的性质进行了研究,证明了协方差矩阵正定的充分条件,同时深入地分析了非正定条件下的最优组合的选择问题。并指出 :当协方差矩阵非正定时,要么存在套利机会,要么存在有效子集 (即有多余的证券存在 )。     

Further Properties of Frequentist Confidence Intervals in Regression that Utilize Uncertain Prior Information

Consider a linear regression model with n‐dimensional response vector, regression parameter and independent and identically distributed errors. Suppose that the parameter of interest is where a is a specified vector. Define the parameter where c and t are specified. Also suppose that we have uncertain prior information that . Part of our evaluation of a frequentist confidence interval for is the ratio (expected length of this confidence interval)/(expected length of standard confidence interval), which we call the scaled expected length of this interval. We say that a confidence interval for utilizes this uncertain prior information if: (i) the scaled expected length of this interval is substantially less than 1 when ; (ii) the maximum value of the scaled expected length is not too much larger than 1; and (iii) this confidence interval reverts to the standard confidence interval when the data happen to strongly contradict the prior information. Kabaila and Giri (2009) present a new method for finding such a confidence interval. Let denote the least squares estimator of . Also let and . Using computations and new theoretical results, we show that the performance of this confidence interval improves as increases and decreases.     

Small-sample properties of covariance-adjusted survivorship data tests for treatment effect

Monte Carlo methods are used to examine the small-sample properties of 11 test statistics that can be used for comparing several treatments with respect to their mortality experiences while adjusting for covariables. The test statistics are investigated from three distinct models: the parametric, semiparametric and rank analysis of covariance (Quade, 1967) models. Four tests (likelihood ratio, Wald, conditional and unconditional score tests) from each of the first two models and three tests (based on rank scores) from the last model are discussed. The empirical size and power of the tests are investigated under a proportional hazards model in three situations: (1) the baseline hazard is correctly assumed to be Exponential, (2) the baseline hazard is incorrectly assumed to be Exponential, and (3) a treatment-covariate interaction is omitted from the analysis.     

Classification Rules under Autoregressive and General Circulant Covariance

We develop classification rules for data that have an autoregressive circulant covariance structure under the assumption of multivariate normality. We also develop classification rules assuming a general circulant covariance structure. The new classification rules are efficient in reducing the misclassification error rates when the number of observations is not large enough to estimate the unknown variance–covariance matrix. The proposed classification rules are demonstrated by simulation study for their validity and illustrated by a real data analysis for their use. Analyses of both simulated data and real data show the effectiveness of our new classification rules.     

On the estimation of the spectral density for continuous spatial processes

In this work, we study the asymptotic properties of smoothed nonparametric kernel spectral density estimators for the spatial spectral density. We consider the case of continuous stationary spatial processes under a shrinking asymptotic framework. Expressions for the bias and the covariance structure are obtained and the implications for the edge effect bias of the choice of the kernel, bandwidth and spacing parameter in the design are also discussed, both for tapered and untapered estimates. Results are illustrated with a simulation study.     

A special purpose linear programming algorithm for obtaining least absolute value estimators in a linear model with dummy variables

Dummy (0, 1) variables are frequently used in statistical modeling to represent the effect of certain extraneous factors. This paper presents a special purpose linear programming algorithm for obtaining least-absolute-value estimators in a linear model with dummy variables. The algorithm employs a compact basis inverse procedure and incorporates the advanced basis exchange techniques available in specialized algorithms for the general linear least-absolute-value problem. Computational results with a computer code version of the algorithm are given.