西部少数民族人口政策的稳定、调整与法制化

西部少数民族人口的发展状况,直接关系到西部地区经济、社会的全面协调和可持续发展。本文就其人口政策的稳定、调整与法制化的战略途径,进行一定的可行性探讨。     

关于中等师范学校布局调整的思考与实践

中国的改革开放带来的中国社会的高速发展以及知识经济呼之欲出的全球大背景,导致了中等师范学校必须转型的历史命运.中等师范学校如何转型?如何面对新的历史条件下的新情况?中等师范学校只有不等、不靠,积极主动地去思考与探索中师布局的调整,才能走出困境,获得新生.     

关于武汉市构建城市和谐民族关系调控机制的调研报告

随着改革开放的深入和社会主义市场经济的发展 ,城市化进程逐步加快 ,民族散居化日趋明显 ,城市民族问题日益突出 ,城市民族关系面临着新形势和新问题。本文以武汉市为个案 ,对当前城市民族关系的特点、影响城市民族关系的主要因素进行了调查和分析 ,结合武汉市民族工作实践提出了要构建城市和谐民族关系调控机制的观点 ,并从加强调控主体、完善调控手段、确立调控效果评估体系等方面对调控机制进行了研究探讨。     

Temporal prediction of future state occupation in a multistate model from high-dimensional baseline covariates via pseudo-value regression

In many complex diseases such as cancer, a patient undergoes various disease stages before reaching a terminal state (say disease free or death). This fits a multistate model framework where a prognosis may be equivalent to predicting the state occupation at a future time t. With the advent of high-throughput genomic and proteomic assays, a clinician may intent to use such high-dimensional covariates in making better prediction of state occupation. In this article, we offer a practical solution to this problem by combining a useful technique, called pseudo-value (PV) regression, with a latent factor or a penalized regression method such as the partial least squares (PLS) or the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), or their variants. We explore the predictive performances of these combinations in various high-dimensional settings via extensive simulation studies. Overall, this strategy works fairly well provided the models are tuned properly. Overall, the PLS turns out to be slightly better than LASSO in most settings investigated by us, for the purpose of temporal prediction of future state occupation. We illustrate the utility of these PV-based high-dimensional regression methods using a lung cancer data set where we use the patients’ baseline gene expression values.     

Adjustment for nonresponse with variables from different sources: Bias correction and precision loss,with application to the Swiss European Social Survey 2012

ABSTRACT

Adjustment for nonresponse should reduce the nonresponse bias without decreasing the precision of the estimates. Adjustment for nonresponses are commonly based on socio-demographic variables, although these variables may be poorly correlated with response propensities and with variables of interest. Such variables nevertheless have the advantage of being available for all sample units, whether or not they are participating in the survey. Alternatively, adjustment for nonresponse can be obtained from a follow-up survey aimed at sample units which did not participate in the survey and from which the variables are designed to be correlated with response propensities. However, information collected through these follow-up surveys is not available for people in the sample who participated neither in the survey nor in its nonresponse follow-up. These two sets of variables when used in a nonresponse model for the Swiss European Social Survey 2012 differ only slightly with regard to their effect on bias correction and on the precision of estimates. The variables from the follow-up are performing slightly better. In both cases, the adjustment for nonresponse performs poorly.     

Social Skills in Children Adopted From Socially-Emotionally Depriving Institutions

This study assessed social skills in post-institutionalized (PI) children with respect to age at adoption, age at assessment, and gender. Parent ratings of social skills (Social Skills Rating System) and behavior problems (Child Behavior Checklist) were obtained for 214 children and 127 adolescents who were adopted from socially-emotionally depriving Russian institutions. Results showed that children adopted before 18 months of age have better social skills than those adopted after this age; those assessed in childhood demonstrate better social skills than those assessed in adolescence. PI females, especially later-adopted adolescents, have particularly poor social skills. Children with poor social skills tend to have higher rates of behavior problems.     

坚持稳中求进 确保经济平稳增长——2012上半年上海经济形势分析

2012年以来,世界经济复苏减缓,市场需求明显不足,全球产能过剩压力加剧,经济运行风险进一步加大,未来发展前景难以确定。我国经济下行压力也明显加大,未来经济增长面临产能过剩、财政收入下滑、就业压力增大、国际游资冲击等负面影响。上海结构调整取得新的进展,预计全年经济增幅合理上升,但在经济运行中需要特别关注就业形势、小微企业、房地产市场、消费市场、区县经济增长等方面因素。应继续按照"稳增长"与"调结构"相互促进的要求,制定和出台促进经济稳定增长的地方性政策措施,重点是做好中央和上海已有各项政策的落实工作。     

公务员心理健康与自我调适

近年来,我国社会转型加速,公务员面临的矛盾问题凸显,工作量和工作难度都空前加大,使其普遍感受到较大的心理压力,他们的心理比普通人更容易产生不稳定因素。从心理健康角度出发,研究国家公务员心理健康问题,探讨心理调适的方法,对于提升公务员的素质,提高执政能力具有非常重要的现实意义。     

Assessing direct and indirect seasonal decomposition in state space

The problem of whether seasonal decomposition should be used prior to or after aggregation of time series is quite old. We tackle the problem by using a state-space representation and the variance/covariance structure of a simplified one-component model. The variances of the estimated components in a two-series system are compared for direct and indirect approaches and also to a multivariate method. The covariance structure between the two time series is important for the relative efficiency. Indirect estimation is always best when the series are independent, but when the series or the measurement errors are negatively correlated, direct estimation may be much better in the above sense. Some covariance structures indicate that direct estimation should be used while others indicate that an indirect approach is more efficient. Signal-to-noise ratios and relative variances are used for inference.     

高职院校专业和课程体系研究与改革探索——以广州城市职业学院为例

新组建的高职院校广州城市职业学院，基于“大平台、强专业、多方向、模块化”的人才培养思路进行了专业和课程体系改革。经过三年多的研究与实践，专业和课程体系得到了优化，教学质量得到了较大提高，为学校建设“迎评创示范”建设做出了贡献。