A modified LGB method for detecting significant effects based on a half-normal probability plot

In analyzing data from unreplicated factorial designs, the half-normal probability plot is commonly used to screen for the ‘vital few’ effects. Recently, many formal methods have been proposed to overcome the subjectivity of this plot. Lawson (1998) (hereafter denoted as LGB) suggested a hybrid method based on the half-normal probability plot, which is a blend of Lenth (1989) and Loh (1992) method. The method consists of fitting a simple least squares line to the inliers, which are determined by the Lenth method. The effects exceeding the prediction limits based on the fitted line are candidates for the vital few effects. To improve the accuracy of partitioning the effects into inliers and outliers, we propose a modified LGB method (hereafter denoted as the Mod_LGB method), in which more outliers can be classified by using both the Carling’s modification of the box plot (Carling, 2000) and Lenth method. If no outlier exists or there is a wide range in the inliers as determined by the Lenth method, more outliers can be found by the Carling method. A simulation study is conducted in unreplicated $2^4$ designs with the number of active effects ranging from 1 to 6 to compare the efficiency of the Lenth method, original LGB methods, and the proposed modified version of the LGB method.     

Coverage Properties of Confidence Intervals for Generalized Additive Model Components

Abstract. We study the coverage properties of Bayesian confidence intervals for the smooth component functions of generalized additive models (GAMs) represented using any penalized regression spline approach. The intervals are the usual generalization of the intervals first proposed by Wahba and Silverman in 1983 and 1985, respectively, to the GAM component context. We present simulation evidence showing these intervals have close to nominal ‘across‐the‐function’ frequentist coverage probabilities, except when the truth is close to a straight line/plane function. We extend the argument introduced by Nychka in 1988 for univariate smoothing splines to explain these results. The theoretical argument suggests that close to nominal coverage probabilities can be achieved, provided that heavy oversmoothing is avoided, so that the bias is not too large a proportion of the sampling variability. The theoretical results allow us to derive alternative intervals from a purely frequentist point of view, and to explain the impact that the neglect of smoothing parameter variability has on confidence interval performance. They also suggest switching the target of inference for component‐wise intervals away from smooth components in the space of the GAM identifiability constraints.     

Influence diagnostics and outlier tests for semiparametric mixed models

Summary. Semiparametric mixed models are useful in biometric and econometric applications, especially for longitudinal data. Maximum penalized likelihood estimators (MPLEs) have been shown to work well by Zhang and co-workers for both linear coefficients and nonparametric functions. This paper considers the role of influence diagnostics in the MPLE by extending the case deletion and subject deletion analysis of linear models to accommodate the inclusion of a nonparametric component. We focus on influence measures for the fixed effects and provide formulae that are analogous to those for simpler models and readily computable with the MPLE algorithm. We also establish an equivalence between the case or subject deletion model and a mean shift outlier model from which we derive tests for outliers. The influence diagnostics proposed are illustrated through a longitudinal hormone study on progesterone and a simulated example.     

钢箱梁初步设计近似公式研究

箱型钢梁是薄壁结构,理论上应使用板壳元素为分析元素较能反映实际的受力及变形。为有效进行设计与分析,已有多种商业软件,但是在确定分析元素与分析的前置作业也相当繁杂费时,而造成初步设计的困难。因此如何利用平板力学相关理论推导箱型钢梁受力变形近似公式将可帮助箱型钢梁设计者减少非必要的工作负担。本文的探讨方法是将箱型钢梁上翼板变形分为上翼板与腹板交界处变形及上翼板变形这两种变形的迭加,进而推导出近似公式。直线型式等截面简支箱型钢梁分别用有限元软件SAP2000和近似公式计算进行准确度的比较,误差百分比尚在初步设计的容许误差范围内。     

噪声背景下提取调制信息的改进奇异值分解技术

在介绍现有奇异值分离技术基本原理及其在故障诊断中的应用的基础上，研究了利用信号时间序列重构的吸引子轨迹矩阵奇异值分布特征与信号特征的关系，引入自相关函数定量计算重构矩阵的延时步长，改进了现有算法，使得吸引子轨迹矩阵的重构更加合理。研究表明该方法能在强噪声背景下提取出所需的调制信号，并成功用于齿轮箱调制故障信号的提取。     

移动模架制梁施工技术

移动模架施工技术是世界桥梁施工的先进技术，成功应用于石太客运专线，克服了大吨位箱梁预制、运输和架设的困难。本工程的移动模架采用整体液压系统驱动，工效高，详细了介绍移动模架的工作原理和主要施工工艺。     

基于三点分段的一类三角样条曲线的扩展

基于文献[5]中三点分段的一次和二次三角基函数的扩展,首先给出了带参数的二次和三次三角调配函数,当λi=0时,二次和三次三角基函数分别退化为文献[5]中的一次和二次三角基函数,然后建立了一种带局部调节参数λi的分段三角样条曲线。通过调整参数λi,能够使得当参数λi越大时,分段三角样条曲线越逼近控制多边形。对于曲线的连续性也做了相关的讨论,二次最高可达G2连续,三次最高可达G4连续。最后给出了两个数值例子,分别利用文中给出的二次和三次调配函数构造了达到G1连续和G3连续的两条曲线。     

论知识物化及其中的知识流

作为21世纪最为重要资源的知识,其作用发挥的的物化.因而研究企业内部知识如何物化、知识物化过程中知识沿节点链的流动以及各种知识流的相互关系,无疑具有重要的理论与现实意义.文章以轮胎的研发与生产为例,阐述了知识如何由普遍科学知识最终形成物化物的知识物化过程,揭示出知识物化过程中的三种知识流及它们之间的相互关系.     

低高度曲线箱梁桥参数分析

本文分别采用空间板壳及梁格模型对曲线箱梁桥的曲率半径、支承方式、腹板厚度进行了参数分析,明确了其对箱梁主要部位静活载内力、结构变位及支承反力的影响