Multiscale Combined Forecast of Carbon PriceBased on Mixed Structure Data

Accurate forecast of the carbon trading price is of great significance in promoting the scientific and rational development of carbon trading market. Therefore, this paper proposes a multi-scale combined forecasting method for carbon price based on mixed structure data. First, the Google Index is used to extract the unstructured data related to the carbon price.The dimensions of unstructured data are reduced based on principal component analysis. Then, EMD is employedto the structured data,unstructured data and the carbon trading price to obtain different IMFs, which are reconstructed by the Fine-to-Coarse technique to get low, high frequency sequence and trend sequence. Furthermore, the three items are predicted respectively by using ARIMA, PLS and neural networks according to the features of each scale in time series. Finally, the forecasting results are summed to get the carbon price forecast sequence. The proposed method is used to forecast carbon price in EU. The empirical results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is higher than that of the single prediction method and the prediction method that time series aren’t decomposed by EMD, which is of great applicability.     

大数据时代国防动员潜力调查之路

如何应用大数据提升国防动员潜力调查的效率是当前政府重点关注的话题。从国防动员潜力大数据的定义和特征着手,分析大数据下国防动员潜力调查所具备的优势,发现仍然存在思维局限、指标不统一、体制不健全、技术缺乏及数据共享与防护难协同等困境。通过思维意识、管理体制、指标体系、核心技术、专业人才、安全共享等六大模块,打破“数据不可用、数据不会用”的现实瓶颈,实现整合国防动员数据资源、延展数据内容和提高工作效率的目标。     

大学化学实验课程中有效数字的记录

有效数字是大学化学实验课程的主要教学内容之一,是培养学生在课程中理解并在日常学习与工作中规范使用有效数字,提升其对有效数字与测定误差之间关系的认识水平,树立良好规范的数字记录习惯,具有十分重要的现实意义。论述介绍了目前大学化学实验教学中关于有效数字方面存在的主要问题,并采用相应的举措建立和完善了教学方案以利于更好地解决存在的问题。通过几个学期的教学实践发现新教学方案取得了初步的成效,同时严格按照有效数字的要求记录与计算数据也是培养学生具有严谨科学素养的一条重要途径。     

Spatial Data Usage,Spatial Thinking and Spatial Knowledge Generation: The Case of Planning Practitioners in Arequipa,Peru

Spatial thinking and spatial knowledge generation in decision-making are still not mature fields of study in planning research, despite these being crucial elements in addressing the issues of the twenty-first-century city. This article contributes to their understanding by exploring their interrelationships with spatial data usage. Through storylines, it analyzes the arguments that planning practitioners offer in support of infrastructure-led decisions in Arequipa (Peru), before and after spatial data usage. The article concludes that spatial data usage improve spatial thinking to different extents, yet suggests aligning spatial data generation and the inclusion of GIS-based spatial analyses with the spatial knowledge needed by routine planning practice.     

Simultaneous Confidence Intervals for the Population Cell Means,for Two-by-Two Factorial Data,that Utilize Uncertain Prior Information

Consider a two-by-two factorial experiment with more than one replicate. Suppose that we have uncertain prior information that the two-factor interaction is zero. We describe new simultaneous frequentist confidence intervals for the four population cell means, with simultaneous confidence coefficient 1 ? α, that utilize this prior information in the following sense. These simultaneous confidence intervals define a cube with expected volume that (a) is relatively small when the two-factor interaction is zero and (b) has maximum value that is not too large. Also, these intervals coincide with the standard simultaneous confidence intervals obtained by Tukey’s method, with simultaneous confidence coefficient 1 ? α, when the data strongly contradict the prior information that the two-factor interaction is zero. We illustrate the application of these new simultaneous confidence intervals to a real data set.     

Approach and Positive Affect in Toddlerhood Predict Early Childhood Behavior Problems

The aim of the study was to examine the moderating role of positive affect on the relation between approach behaviors and adjustment outcomes. One hundred eleven toddlers participated in a laboratory assessment of approach and positive affect at 24 months. Behavior problems were reported by a parent in the fall of the child's kindergarten year. Results supported our hypotheses that children who displayed high approach and high positive affect in both non‐threat and low‐threat contexts were rated as higher in externalizing behavior problems. On the other hand, for children showing low positive affect, increases in approach in a moderate‐threat context lowered the risk of developing internalizing behavior problems. Implications for these findings are discussed, including methodological considerations of differences among eliciting contexts and advantages of separating positive affect and approach.     

Nonparametric analysis of treatment effects with missing observations

This paper develops a test for comparing treatment effects when observations are missing at random for repeated measures data on independent subjects. It is assumed that missingness at any occasion follows a Bernoulli distribution. It is shown that the distribution of the vector of linear rank statistics depends on the unknown parameters of the probability law that governs missingness, which is absent in the existing conditional methods employing rank statistics. This dependence is through the variance–covariance matrix of the vector of linear ranks. The test statistic is a quadratic form in the linear rank statistics when the variance–covariance matrix is estimated. The limiting distribution of the test statistic is derived under the null hypothesis. Several methods of estimating the unknown components of the variance–covariance matrix are considered. The estimate that produces stable empirical Type I error rate while maintaining the highest power among the competing tests is recommended for implementation in practice. Simulation studies are also presented to show the advantage of the proposed test over other rank-based tests that do not account for the randomness in the missing data pattern. Our method is shown to have the highest power while also maintaining near-nominal Type I error rates. Our results clearly illustrate that even for an ignorable missingness mechanism, the randomness in the pattern of missingness cannot be ignored. A real data example is presented to highlight the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

A Security Model and Legal Guarantee for Chinese Maritime Shipping: As Exemplified in the Response to Piracy along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

The Belt and Road Initiative is an important decision for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Maritime security has a significant place in this process. In recent years, there have been frequent violent terrorist incidents at sea, including piracy, armed hijackings and terrorist attacks, posing a dire threat to both international and Chinese maritime transport interests and seriously challenging the fulfillment of the maritime part of the “Belt and Road Initiative.” Five direct measures can be taken to protect ocean shipping from violence at sea. One example is the defensive measures taken against the Somali pirates. The employment of armed guards from professional security companies on board ship is an effective model for guaranteeing maritime security; it not only meets the standards of international law, but is also legally permitted in many developed countries and regions, and is thus strategically significant for overall Chinese maritime security. In the Chinese context, this model carries its own legal risks. We should embrace a new approach to national security law, strengthen legal guarantees and make concerted efforts to provide warship (military aircraft) escorts to jointly build an optimum model of Chinese maritime security in order to ensure the realization of core Chinese maritime interests.     

救赎：寻求民族文化的出路——解读莫里森的《柏油孩子》

高速铁路具有高度集成、高精度的技术特点，运营过程中经受列车质量、速度、密度等多种因素影响，地理位置因素往往是影响铁路设备状态演变的决定性因素。采用网格化管理技术可将空间上连续分布的管理对象划分成较小的单元网格，有利于从空间位置角度研究管理对象状态的变化规律。随着信息系统技术、大数据技术的迅猛发展，基于位置而不是基于专业更符合高速铁路的管理需求，网格化管理技术给高速铁路管理带来了新的视角。     

协同创新视角下的学会建设

学会的基本属性和活动方式与协同创新要求相契合,使其能够在推动协同创新、实施科技创新驱动发展战略中发挥重要作用。协同创新是一个复杂的系统工程,学会在政府、科学家、企业、金融资本等创新活动主体间扮演沟通联系人、协调者、润滑剂的角色,构建跨学科、跨大类学科甚至跨文理界限的学会联盟是协同创新活动发展的必然。为提升学会学术研究、协同创新能力,政府部门、企业、高等院校、科研部门、私人基金会等应支持学会建设向着有利于协同创新的方向发展,学会应进一步推动实体化建设,面向市场,服务社会。