Multilevel models for repeated binary outcomes: attitudes and voting over the electoral cycle

Models for fitting longitudinal binary responses are explored by using a panel study of voting intentions. A standard multilevel repeated measures logistic model is shown to be inadequate owing to a substantial proportion of respondents who maintain a constant response over time. A multivariate binary response model is shown to be a better fit to the data.     

阿玛蒂亚·森的正义观——对罗尔斯的批判及其公共政策含义

罗尔斯的思考模式并不是理解正义的唯一路径,阿玛蒂亚.森的《正义观》对罗尔斯展开了全面的批判。不同于很多学者忽略替代性理论的完善,阿玛蒂亚.森完成了包括基本主题、分析工具和评估尺度在内的范式转换。他重拾了智识史上的现实比较传统取代主流的先验制度主义,发展了社会选择理论以代替契约论分析构架,以能力尺度超越了基本物品尺度。阿玛蒂亚.森在基本主题和分析工具的学术合法性的证明上是完整和有说服力的,而在将能力方法(作为评估尺度)运用于公共政策领域时则面临了理论逻辑和现实逻辑的限制。只有在理论上退让到基本能力层面,能力方法才具有公共政策中的合理性。与罗尔斯的《正义论》一样,阿玛蒂亚.森的《正义观》也不可能是正义研究的终点,两种范式之间的争论方兴未艾。     

“两大发现”还是“七大发现”(上)——马克思使社会主义由空想变为科学的思想史考察

关于社会主义由空想变为科学的理论基础,各种教科书都归之于马克思的两个伟大发现。殊不知,这一提法的首倡者恩格斯只是在举例子的语境中才这样说的。因为,马克思自我认定的一大发现——无产阶级专政,就没有在恩格斯的两个伟大发现说中占有位置。所以,恩格斯在《卡尔·马克思》一文中对马克思盖棺论定的评价是,有永垂科学史册的许多重要发现。相对于科学社会主义理论体系的确立而言,马克思至少有七个伟大发现:(一)人类社会历史规律的研究路径;(二)劳动;(三)人类社会历史的工艺学基础;(四)无产阶级专政;(五)劳动人道主义;(六)剩余价值;(七)唯物史观。这七个伟大发现的实现,有着历时性先后顺序,在内容上也存在着逻辑层次关系。而在七个伟大发现中,处于核心、基础和本质地位的,是马克思对劳动的发现。     

基于ARM的嵌入式GPRS工业控制系统的研究与实现

介绍了一种基于ARM微处理器的嵌入式GPRS工业控制远程数据采集系统的设计与实现。硬件系统采用高性能S3C2410嵌入式系统作为数据采集控制节点,GPRS模块采用内置TCP/IP协议的MC35作为无线数据传输单元,结合嵌入式Linux操作系统,保证了数据传输的实时性和可靠性。论述了系统软硬件实现的关键技术。     

元认知与大学英语网络自主学习

目前我们汉译英的课堂教学模式过于简单且效率低下,本文提出了一种针对低学业成就者的、基于学习策略培训的汉译英SB I教学模式,从汉语语义结构分析、英语句子结构定型、英语词汇选择以及检查核对等多方面尝试将汉译英学习策略的培训渗透到汉译英的课堂教学活动中,以期提高这些学习者的汉译英技能,帮助他们掌握必要的语言学习策略,培养他们的自主学习能力,改善课堂教学效果。     

探析马克思主义掌握群众的路径

世界社会制度图景的变幻,国内改革开放和市场经济大潮的冲击和社会转型期凸显的社会矛盾,成为新形势下马克思主义不能彻底掌握群众的重要客观因素。特别是马克思主义理论教育手段和方式的滞后,党员干部队伍存在的腐败等问题更加严重地影响了马克思主义在人民心中的地位。基于马克思主义当下的境遇,必须加强党的建设,改进马克思主义教育的内容和方法,并将社会主义核心价值潜移默化的间接引导与合理制度的建构相结合。     

立足海洋资源优势 全方位发展蓝色经济

建设山东半岛蓝色经济区,要立足海洋资源优势,推进传统领域集约发展,进一步用好海洋资源优势;推进新兴领域快速发展,全方位拓展海洋资源优势;推进强势领域高端发展,深层次放大海洋资源优势;推进发展环境优化,全面提升海洋资源利用水平,全方位发展蓝色经济。     

Configuring a new business model through conceptual combination: The rise of the Huffington Post

How a successful business model (BM) is designed is a key question in the business model innovation (BMI) literature. Delving on the shared concept of BM as a configuration of components and interdependencies, we take a cognitive perspective to study the conceptual combination as a central process in BMI. We investigate the complexity of conceiving a new BM configuration, through a longitudinal study of the emergence of “The Huffington Post” which combined newspaper and blog in a disruptive and successful BM. With our research we theoretically frame the dynamic interplay between the three cognitive mechanisms of conceptual combination and the system of interdependent components of an emerging BM. Our findings unveil how the overall process unfolds and specifically delves into the dynamic iteration of composing and experimenting with the new configuration until the overall coherence is reached. Hence, we advance the literature by showing how the conceptual combination of a new BM is a complex effort and comprises some iterative cycles, vital to reach a coherent configuration which could secure a superior performance.     

Inference in Censored Models with Endogenous Regressors

This paper analyzes the linear regression model y = xβ+ε with a conditional median assumption med (ε| z) = 0, where z is a vector of exogenous instrument random variables. We study inference on the parameter β when y is censored and x is endogenous. We treat the censored model as a model with interval observation on an outcome, thus obtaining an incomplete model with inequality restrictions on conditional median regressions. We analyze the identified features of the model and provide sufficient conditions for point identification of the parameter β. We use a minimum distance estimator to consistently estimate the identified features of the model. We show that under point identification conditions and additional regularity conditions, the estimator based on inequality restrictions is normal and we derive its asymptotic variance. One can use our setup to treat the identification and estimation of endogenous linear median regression models with no censoring. A Monte Carlo analysis illustrates our estimator in the censored and the uncensored case.     

The Time Series and Cross‐Section Asymptotics of Dynamic Panel Data Estimators

In this paper we derive the asymptotic properties of within groups (WG), GMM, and LIML estimators for an autoregressive model with random effects when both T and N tend to infinity. GMM and LIML are consistent and asymptotically equivalent to the WG estimator. When T/N→ 0 the fixed T results for GMM and LIML remain valid, but WG, although consistent, has an asymptotic bias in its asymptotic distribution. When T/N tends to a positive constant, the WG, GMM, and LIML estimators exhibit negative asymptotic biases of order 1/T, 1/N, and 1/(2N−T), respectively. In addition, the crude GMM estimator that neglects the autocorrelation in first differenced errors is inconsistent as T/N→c>0, despite being consistent for fixed T. Finally, we discuss the properties of a random effects pseudo MLE with unrestricted initial conditions when both T and N tend to infinity.