Coherency conditions for finite exchangeable inference

Summary We idenify the invertible coherent functional relation between an array of asserted conditional probabilities and the probability distribution for the sum of events that are regarded exchangeably, in the regular case thatP(N _N+1 |S _N =a) ∈ (0, 1) for everya=0, 1, ...,N. The result is used to construct a useful algebraic and geometrical representation of all coherent inferences in the regular case, including those that are nonlinear in the sum of the conditioning events. The special case in which conditional probabilities mimic observed frequencies within (0, 1) receives an exact solution, which allows an easy interpretation of its surprising consequences. Finally, we introduce a new direction in research on prior opinion assessment that this approach, inverse to the usual one, suggests.     

一般动力学系统在相空间的Noether定理及其逆定理

根据一般动力学系统在相空间的作用积分在无穷小群变换下的变换性质,分别建立起完整和非完整非保守系统的Noether定理和逆定理.由给出的例子表明,在相空间中可以呈现出动力学系统新的对称性.     

高阶非完整非保守系统的广义Noether定理

应用万有D＇Alembert微分变分原理研究了高阶非完整非保守力学系统的守恒定律 得到了高阶非完整非保守力学系统的广义Noether定理。     

La victime et le policier : point de vue profane et point de vue professionnel sur la délinquance

Comparing surveys of victims with police statistics illustrates the differences between lay and professional views of crime. Victims’expectations and the police handling of cases do not always match. The determinants of victims’ decisions to report incidents to the police are briefly summarised; and the ways the police classify victims’account and handle their complaints, examined. This analysis is based on two sets of data: a victimisation survey of a sample of 10?504 persons aged 15 and older, drawn from the Île-de-France Region; the police statistics corresponding to the same area.     

À propos de l’article de François-Xavier de Vaujany, « Les figures de la gestion du changement sociotechnique »

The approach adopted by François Xavier de Vaujany draws from “structurationist” research in English-speaking social sciences, a current that shares with the sociology of technology a vision of the contextual and negotiated nature of the links between technical and organizational phenomena. Various trajectories in the way organizations use new information and communication technology can be compared; and the role, examined that specific mediators play in the appropriation process. This approach provides stimulating input in discussions about the impact of new technology on organizational change.     

并行方法在新产品开发整体规划中的应用研究

本文在分析并行工程的内涵特性的基础上,探讨了并行工程在新产品开发中的功能和实施环节,并提出一种并行方法下的新产品开发的整体规划方法,实现了新产品开发过程的并行交叉处理。     

Optimal Prediction in Stochastic Regression Models with Application to the Analysis of Repeated Surveys

Several results relating to the optimal prediction of regression coefficients and random variables under a general linear model with stochastic coefficients are presented. These results are then applied to the analysis of repeated sample surveys over time. In particular, if the finite population can be modelled by a superpopulation model, a fully efficient method for the analysis of repeated surveys is proposed.     

On the distribution of quadratic forms in normal random variables

This paper provides necessary and sufficient conditions for a quadratic form in singular normal random variables to be distributed as a given linear combination of independent noncentral chi-square variables. Using this result, an extension of Cochran's theorem to quadratic forms of noncentral chi-square variables is derived.     

Agricultural policies and development: A socioeconomic investigation applied to Sri Lanka

This paper explores the interrelationship between agricultural policies and development by means of a dynamically recursive, computable general equilibrium model applied to Sri Lanka. The agricultural policies investigated include elimination of the food subsidy, land reform, and technical change in agriculture. The goals considered are the levels and growth rates of GNP and employment, the distribution of income, and the real income level of the lowest income group. The study provides a quantitative assessment of the association between policies and goals and identifies the key economic mechanisms in this association.     

How Unique Are the Price–Anderson Limitations on Nuclear Accident Liability?

In this paper we extend the work reported in prior studies. The conclusion drawn from the aggregate of those studies was that the limitation on liability imposed by the Price–Anderson Act for a catastrophic accident at a nuclear power plant ($560 million) is comparable to de facto limitations on recovery following catastrophic events in many other industries. The analysis in those reports was at a high level of abstraction, comparing almost exclusively the potential loss from high consequence accidents with the current assets of major firms in relevant industries. We found that potential loss exceeded assets.