Comment apprécier une politique policière ? : Le premier ministère Sarkozy (7 mai 2002-30 mars 2004)

How to assess the effects of the policy of Nicolas Sarkozy, Home Secretary in France from May 2002 to March 2004? An analysis of the statistics and, in particular, of the way they were construed reveals that the results were ambiguous, because law enforcement was centered on the state's duty to enforce the law while police services were being asked to show a decrease in delinquency so as to prove that the new policy was effective. On the other hand, an analysis of polls about how public opinion felt about law and order indicates that the minister's tough talk was effective to a degree, especially when feelings of insecurity were strongly politicized prior to presidential elections in April 2002. This analysis sheds light on the distance between the practical and purely political effectiveness of a policy of law and order.     

Block empirical likelihood for longitudinal partially linear regression models

The authors propose a block empirical likelihood procedure to accommodate the within‐group correlation in longitudinal partially linear regression models. This leads them to prove a nonparametric version of the Wilks theorem. In comparison with normal approximations, their method does not require a consistent estimator for the asymptotic covariance matrix, which makes it easier to conduct inference on the parametric component of the model. An application to a longitudinal study on fluctuations of progesterone level in a menstrual cycle is used to illustrate the procedure developed here.     

Brualdi定理的一个推广

本文将Brualdi定理推广到分块矩阵上,得到了新的谱包含域。     

REMARKS ON OPTIMAL INFERENCE FOR MARKOV BRANCHING PROCESSES: A SEQUENTIAL APPROACH

Use of a suitable stopping rule yields exact uniformly most powerful tests and minimum variance unbiased estimators of various parameters of a Markov branching model with or without immigration. The population model discussed includes the pure birth, simple epidemic, immigration-death, M/M/ 1 queue, linear birth-death and a branching diffusion process, among others, as special cases.     

A general guideline for management of risk from carcinogens

A simple relationship is formulated that helps to discriminate between acceptable and unacceptable individual lifetime risks (RL) to populations that are exposed to chemical carcinogens. The relationship is an empirical one and is developed using objective risk data as well as subjective risk levels that have found substantial acceptance among those concerned with carcinogenic risk assessment issues. The expression sets acceptable levels of lifetime carcinogenic risk and is a function of the total population exposed to the carcinogen. Its use in risk assessment and risk management provides guidance in distinguishing those carcinogens that should be regulated because of the health hazard they pose from those whose regulation may not be needed.     

STEIN'S METHOD AND THE BERRY-ESSÉEN THEOREM

Stein's method is used to prove the Lindeberg-Feller theorem and a generalization of the Berry-Esséen theorem. The arguments involve only manipulation of probability inequalities, and form an attractive alternative to the less direct Fourier-analytic methods which are traditionally employed.     

On uniform approximation of Poisson variates by normal ones

In this paper the accuracy of the normal approximation to the Poisson is treated from the viewpoint of direct approximation of Poisson variables by normal ones. The conclusions that are derived on the accuracy of this approximation lead (among others) to very useful results on confidence limits for the mean of a linear combination of independent Poisson variables; these latter are employed in precise determination of the composition of a mixture of radioactive isotopes by means of a scintillation counter.     

Coherency conditions for finite exchangeable inference

Summary We idenify the invertible coherent functional relation between an array of asserted conditional probabilities and the probability distribution for the sum of events that are regarded exchangeably, in the regular case thatP(N _N+1 |S _N =a) ∈ (0, 1) for everya=0, 1, ...,N. The result is used to construct a useful algebraic and geometrical representation of all coherent inferences in the regular case, including those that are nonlinear in the sum of the conditioning events. The special case in which conditional probabilities mimic observed frequencies within (0, 1) receives an exact solution, which allows an easy interpretation of its surprising consequences. Finally, we introduce a new direction in research on prior opinion assessment that this approach, inverse to the usual one, suggests.     

一般动力学系统在相空间的Noether定理及其逆定理

根据一般动力学系统在相空间的作用积分在无穷小群变换下的变换性质,分别建立起完整和非完整非保守系统的Noether定理和逆定理.由给出的例子表明,在相空间中可以呈现出动力学系统新的对称性.     

高阶非完整非保守系统的广义Noether定理

应用万有D＇Alembert微分变分原理研究了高阶非完整非保守力学系统的守恒定律 得到了高阶非完整非保守力学系统的广义Noether定理。