On Bayesian D-optimum Design Criteria and the Equivalence Theorem in Non-linear Models

The concavity of some Bayesian D -optimality criteria is investigated and is found in some cases to depend on the prior distribution. In the case of a non-concave criterion, the standard equivalence theorem may fail, but a local version continues to apply.     

Estimating the Upper Support Point in Deconvolution

Abstract.  We consider estimation of the upper boundary point F ⁻¹ (1) of a distribution function F with finite upper boundary or 'frontier' in deconvolution problems, primarily focusing on deconvolution models where the noise density is decreasing on the positive halfline. Our estimates are based on the (non-parametric) maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of F . We show that (1) is asymptotically never too small. If the convolution kernel has bounded support the estimator (1) can generally be expected to be consistent. In this case, we establish a relation between the extreme value index of F and the rate of convergence of (1) to the upper support point for the 'boxcar' deconvolution model. If the convolution density has unbounded support, (1) can be expected to overestimate the upper support point. We define consistent estimators , for appropriately chosen vanishing sequences ( β _n ) and study these in a particular case.     

Externaliser la défense : la politique américaine

This analysis of the thoroughgoing change effected in the US defense industry shows that the Pentagon’s traditional partners are taking a back seat behind private, for-profit service providers. These firms, which provide military services and the “information technology” necessary for modern warfare, now play a key role in the American national security system. Among the factors accounting for this unprecedented sharing of a classical government prerogative with private firms are the redefinition of the government’s role, the technological revolution and the strategic environment related to the global war against terrorism. This role-sharing brings new forces into play. The Defense Department is externalizing strategic activities without all the legislative and institutional means for regulating them, whence the risk of a crisis in the military establishment. The mixed systems coming out of this change are a driving force in altering the civilian and military capability to project power and intervene in the world.     

Le modèle de « l'État-stratège » : genèse d'une forme organisationnelle dans l'administration française

Since the 1990s, a new organisational form of the administrative system in France has been steadily redefining relations between central administrations and local state units. Labelled “the steering state” or the “managerial state”, this new paradigm hinges on separating the strategic functions of steering and controlling the state from the operational functions of execution and policy implementation. The making of this new form of state organization involves two parallel processes: political and cognitive. For one thing, the adoption of concrete measures for “government at distance” results from power struggles between three major ministries (Home Office, Budget and Civil Service). For another, a new legitimate “categorization of the state” is being formed in the major committees involved in the reform process of the 1990s; it is borne by top civil servants and inspired by the ideas of New Public Management. — Special issue: New patterns of institutions.     

Moments of the sampled autocovariances and autocorrelations for a Gaussian white-noise process

Cumulants, moments about zero, and central moments are obtained for the mean-corrected serial covariances and serial correlations for series realizations of length n from a white-noise Gaussian process. All first and second moments (and some third, fourth, and higher moments) are given explicitly for the serial covariances; and the corresponding moments for the serial correlations are derived either explicitly or implicitly.     

La qualité de l'emploi en Amérique latine: théorie et faits

Traditionnellement, la littérature sur le développement consacrée aux marchés du travail d'Amérique latine s'est concentrée sur le nombre d'emplois et la productivité. Mais, étant donné la persistance d'une forte proportion d'emplois informels ou précaires, pour que l'analyse ait du sens, il faut aussi considérer des implications du statut professionnel sur la qualité de l'emploi. Partant d'observations faites ces dernières décennies, les auteurs concluent que la plupart des aspects de cette qualité – protection sociale comprise – dépendent de la signature d'un contrat écrit. Ce constat les conduit à formuler quelques suggestions pour stabiliser l'emploi formel et assurer un financement suffisant de la protection sociale.     

Production mondialisée et progrès social: le cas du textile et de l'habillement

La fragmentation de la production au sein de réseaux mondiaux n'obéit pas seulement à l'avantage comparatif, mais aussi aux décisions de localisation des entreprises dominantes en fonction de la capacité de négociation des producteurs locaux et du rôle qu'elles leur assignent dans la chaîne de production. Les auteurs examinent les conséquences de cette spécialisation dans le textile et l'habillement, pour vingt‐six pays où l'offre de main‐d'?uvre est abondante, sur la période 1990–2007. L'étude économétrique montre que le secteur ne tire pas toujours bénéfice de l'intégration commerciale: on observe plutôt une association négative entre spécialisation verticale et salaires réels.     

Politiques publiques et parcours de fin de vie: reconfigurations,dynamiques paradoxales et art combinatoire

Du fait de l'allongement de l'espérance de vie, de très nombreuses personnes vivent désormais un grand âge, c'est-à-dire une longue période de l'existence au cours de laquelle ils se confrontent à leur finitude. Ce nouveau temps de l'existence questionne la conception traditionnelle d'un cycle de vie ternaire, et la définition de la fin de la vie. Autour de cette dernière étape du parcours de vie, se révèlent les ambiguïtés de la culture des problèmes de la vieillesse et se noue une controverse concernant la désinstitutionalisation et la déstandardisation des parcours de vie. A partir des données issues de travaux empiriques cet article analyse les formes originales d'action publique qui s'esquissent à l’échelle des territoires et renouvellent les cadres normatifs institutionnels de gestion de la grande vieillesse. Il met au jour la dialectique qui s'engage entre une forme de production centrifuge et institutionnalisée des politiques publiques, initiée par l'Etat et un processus centripète dans lequel la diversité et la dispersion des acteurs participent de dynamiques coopératives vs concurrentielles.

Les éléments empiriques mobilisés dans cet article sont issus d'une recherche menée dans le cadre des conventions d’études conclues pour les années 2010 (projet n4) et 2011 (projet n 4) entre l'IRES au service des organisations représentatives des travailleurs et la CGT.     

Approximating moments of continuous functions of random variables using Bernstein polynomials

Bernstein polynomials have many interesting properties. In statistics, they were mainly used to estimate density functions and regression relationships. The main objective of this paper is to promote further use of Bernstein polynomials in statistics. This includes (1) providing a high-level approximation of the moments of a continuous function $g\left(X\right)$ of a random variable $X$, and (2) proving Jensen’s inequality concerning a convex function without requiring second differentiability of the function. The approximation in (1) is demonstrated to be quite superior to the delta method, which is used to approximate the variance of $g\left(X\right)$ with the added assumption of differentiability of the function. Two numerical examples are given to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology in (1).     

On a Pandemic Threshold Theorem of the Early Kermack–McKendrick Model with Individual Heterogeneity

A pandemic threshold theorem of the Kermack–McKendrick epidemic system with individual heterogeneity is proved from the definition of R ₀ by Diekmann, Heesterbeek, and Metz. The early Kermack–McKendrick epidemic model is extended to recognize individual heterogeneity, where the state variable indicates an epidemiological state or genetic, physiological, or behavioral characteristics such as risk of infection. With the basic reproduction number R ₀ for the heterogeneous population, the final size equation of the limit epidemic starting from a completely susceptible steady state at t = ?∞ has a unique positive solution if and only if R ₀  > 1. The main result is that the positive solution of the final size equation gives the lower bound of the intensity of any epidemic starting from a host population composed of susceptible and a few infected individuals who spread on a noncompact domain of the trait variable.