WTO的基本价值考察

本文旨在分析GATT/WTO在其数十年的发展史中形成的规则体系被各国认同的深层次原因 ,乃是在于其对符合社会发展规律的、具有普世意义的价值不懈追求所致 ,这种分析有利于正确认识世贸组织的基本性质以及预构我国加入世贸组织后参与决策和其它活动的总体思路     

建设工程管理决策中的系统分析方法

管理决策的科学性取决于管理方法、手段和技术的有效性。基于决策问题的系统分析方法是实施科学决策的基础,决策问题的提出是系统科学发展的动因。建设工程管理决策树立系统观点、应用系统方法进行量化和优化是提高其决策质量的有效方法。从系统分析与决策、建设工程管理决策的系统观以及建设选址问题中系统分析方法的应用三个方面理论与实际相结合,阐明了系统量化与优化对于建设工程管理决策的辅助支持作用,以期增强建设工程管理决策活动应用系统方法的自觉性,提高管理决策的质量和能力,促进建筑业的健康良性发展。     

Threshold decisions: how social workers prioritize referrals of child concern

This paper examines local authority social workers' decision‐making when considering referrals of children, where the concerns are on the margin of child protection procedures. In doing so, it describes the findings of a qualitative research study undertaken in the policy context of attempts to ‘refocus’ social work practice in the late 1990s and early twenty‐first century. Data collection involved interviews with social workers and parents in 23 cases. Conclusions are that referrals were evaluated on the basis of five key factors, specificity, severity, risk, parental accountability and corroboration, the use of which determined whether an initial assessment or an investigation of alleged abuse took place. The analysis builds on previous work in the child protection field, but demonstrates how the application of these factors differs between cases of child concern and cases of child protection. Policy implications concern the complexity of decision‐making in the uncertain context of limited referral information and it is proposed that the simplistic notion of a continuum of abuse is now outdated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一种基于神经网络和决策树的信用评估新方法

分析了数据挖掘在国内外金融领域的应用及研究现状,提出了一种基于神经网络和决策树相结合的信用评估新方法。该方法通过RBF神经网络,进行条件属性裁减,并利用决策树抽取出评估规则。此方法利用神经网络的“黑箱”工作特性,选择重要条件属性,并利用决策树自动生成评估规则,大大提高了信用评估的效率和客观性。     

基于数据挖掘的客户关系分析评价系统

分析功能的深化是客户关系管理(CRM)的一大发展趋势,应用数据挖掘技术建立的CRM分析评价系统,可以对客户的行为以及市场趋势进行有效的分析,为企业的各种决策提供定性和定量的依据。该系统主要模块包括:客户细分模块、客户行为分析模块和市场趋势分析模块。以上各个模块涉及了企业关心的各种客户行为及市场行为,通过各个模块的分析,企业可以辨认出高端客户,理解各种客户行为模式,并掌握市场发展趋势以保证企业在激烈的竞争中立于不败之地。     

试论法治与德治的互补性

对任何一个社会秩序的维系来说 ,运用法律规范的手段对社会成员实施强制作用和强调社会成员的道德自觉都是必不可少的。规范的存在和道义的重视构成社会秩序的基本经纬。解析了法治和德治的内在逻辑 ,从理论和实践两个方面分析了法治和德治之间的互补性     

论民族地区现代乡村法治秩序的构建

本文论述了乡村法治秩序构建的内涵、民族地区构建乡村法治秩序的必要性和必然性,分析了民族地区乡村民主建设及村民自治制度化建设的现状、问题和原因,提出了加强村民自治制度化建设的建议。作者认为,乡村法治秩序能否真正形成的关键在于制度建设,即创造性的制度设计和制度完善。在民族地区,当前的关键是加强村民自治章程和村规民约建设。     

Optimal sampling for repeated binary measurements

The authors consider the optimal design of sampling schedules for binary sequence data. They propose an approach which allows a variety of goals to be reflected in the utility function by including deterministic sampling cost, a term related to prediction, and if relevant, a term related to learning about a treatment effect To this end, they use a nonparametric probability model relying on a minimal number of assumptions. They show how their assumption of partial exchangeability for the binary sequence of data allows the sampling distribution to be written as a mixture of homogeneous Markov chains of order k. The implementation follows the approach of Quintana & Müller (2004), which uses a Dirichlet process prior for the mixture.     

An Experimental Evaluation of the Serial Cost Sharing Rule

This paper proposes an experimental test to evaluate the performance of the serial cost sharing rule, originally proposed by Shenker [Sigmetrics, 241–242 (1990)] and then analyzed by Moulin and Shenker [Econometrica 60, 1009–1037 (1992)]. We report measures of the performance and efficiency of the serial mechanism by comparing the choices and payoffs attained by the subjects to the expected equilibrium allocations. Experimental evidence shows that learning is needed for the subjects to converge to the equilibrium strategy. However, in terms of efficiency, the serial mechanism leads to almost efficient allocations.     

从会计角度看中国企业应对反倾销的对策

我国是目前国际上遭受反倾销调查最多的国家,国外反倾销给我国出口贸易造成了巨大损失。会计是反倾销诉讼中的一个关键因素。文章针对会计在我国企业应对反倾销中的作用和我国企业应对反倾销中存在的会计问题进行了分析,在此基础上提出了我国企业从会计角度应对反倾销的对策与建议。