大跃进时期的“赶超”思潮

“大跃进”运动是探索中国社会主义道路中所经历的一场带有全局性失误的经济建设运动。当时,“赶超”思潮成为一股不可忽视的势头,逐渐由理性走向非理性,进而偏离常规的轨道。实践中,“赶超”之风愈演愈烈,最终走向极端。这场运动影响深远,教训深刻,时刻提醒人们不能重蹈覆辙,为我国在经济建设上提供了前车之鉴。尤其是对当前经济建设具有重要启示。     

科技革命与管理创新

科学技术与管理是推动人类社会不断发展的两只轮子,两者共同发展,科学技术孕育着管理的变革,管理的创新引领科学技术的新发展.近代科技革命催生了科学管理,使管理领域发生了重大的理论与实践的变革与创新;现代科技革命使管理的变革与创新成为不可逆转的潮流和趋势,文章从创新、知识管理、学习型组织和信息化管理等四个方面进行了系统论述.     

A small but practically useful modification to the Hodrick–Prescott filtering: A note

The Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filtering is widely applied to decompose macroeconomic time series, such as real Gross Domestic Product, into cyclical and trend components. This paper presents a small but practically useful modification to this approach. The reason why this modified filtering is of practical use is that it provides not only identical trend estimates as the HP filtering but also extrapolations of the trend. We provide a proof based on a ridge regression representation of the modified HP filtering. This is mainly because it enhances our understanding of the approach.     

Signal extraction goodness-of-fit diagnostic tests under model parameter uncertainty: Formulations and empirical evaluation

We present a time-domain goodness-of-fit (gof) diagnostic test that is based on signal-extraction variances for nonstationary time series. This diagnostic test extends the time-domain gof statistic of Maravall (2003 Maravall, A. (2003). A class of diagnostics in the ARIMA-model-based decomposition of a time series. Memorandum, Bank of Spain. Available at http://www.bde.es/servicio/software/tramo/diagnosticsamb.pdf [Google Scholar]) by taking into account the effects of model parameter uncertainty, utilizing theoretical results of McElroy and Holan (2009 McElroy, T., Holan, S. (2009). A local spectral approach for assessing time series model misspeci?cation. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 100:604–621.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We demonstrate that omitting this correction results in a severely undersized statistic. Adequate size and power are obtained in Monte Carlo studies for fairly short time series (10 to 15 years of monthly data). Our Monte Carlo studies of finite sample size and power consider different combinations of both signal and noise components using seasonal, trend, and irregular component models obtained via canonical decomposition. Details of the implementation appropriate for SARIMA models are given. We apply the gof diagnostic test statistics to several U.S. Census Bureau time series. The results generally corroborate the output of the automatic model selection procedure of the X-12-ARIMA software, which in contrast to our diagnostic test statistic does not involve hypothesis testing. We conclude that these diagnostic test statistics are a useful supplementary model-checking tool for practitioners engaged in the task of model-based seasonal adjustment.     

The Frisch–Waugh–Lovell theorem for the lasso and the ridge regression

The Frisch–Waugh–Lovell (FWL) (partitioned regression) theorem is essential in regression analysis. This is partly because it is quite useful to derive theoretical results. The lasso regression and the ridge regression, both of which are penalized least-squares regressions, have become popular statistical techniques. This article describes that the FWL theorem remains valid for these penalized least-squares regressions. More precisely, we demonstrate that the covariates corresponding to unpenalized regression parameters in these penalized least-squares regression can be projected out. Some other results related to the FWL theorem in such penalized least-squares regressions are also presented.     

Racial/Ethnic Minority Vocational Research Trends: An 11‐Year Update

This study extends Flores et al.'s ( 2006 ) 36‐year analysis of racial/ethnic minority (REM) career research to identify recent trends in choice of topics and leading individual and institutional contributors. The authors identified 166 articles on REM career research published from 2005 to 2015 in the Journal of Vocational Behavior, The Career Development Quarterly, the Journal of Career Assessment, and the Journal of Career Development. Of these studies, 92% were empirical, with more than three quarters of these using quantitative rather than qualitative methodology. Most frequently, the empirical studies (n = 153) were based on samples of high school (30.7%) or undergraduate (34.6%) students. The authors discuss the implications of their findings and suggest ways to expand REM career research in the future.     

How do labour laws affect unemployment and the labour share of national income? The experience of six OECD countries, 1970–2010

Using longitudinal data on labour law in France, Germany, Japan, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States over the period 1970–2010, the authors estimate the impact of labour regulation on unemployment and the labour share of national income. Their dynamic panel data analysis distinguishes between the short‐run and long‐run effects of regulatory change. They find that worker‐protective labour laws in general have no consistent relationship to unemployment but are positively correlated with labour's share of national income. Laws specifically relating to working time and employee representation are found to have beneficial effects on both efficiency and distribution thus proxied.     

智库的起源、历程及趋势

智库已成为各国“软实力”的重要组成部分。我国的智库研究起步较晚,有必要对智库的起源与界定、发展历程以及未来的趋势作一准确判断。在此,从智库的起源与界定、智库的发展历程、智库的特点和功用、智库的发展趋势四个方面就国内外学者的研究成果中有关世界智库的和中国智库的历史、现状和发展趋势进行梳理．并指出国外智库的发展可以对我国智库的发展提供有益的经验与启示。     

美元的霸权性及其对全球利益博弈的影响

国际利益博弈源于国家之间需求的碰撞,自1970年代起,全球发展进入后工业社会阶段,美元作为世界货币,其表面的"美金→石油美元"转换后面,是美元信用来源的"实际财富抵押→暴力抵押"的转换;该转换带来了一个全新的世界格局,即"美元/全球资源资产"与"美元/美国国债"的双跷跷板结构。美元成为世界利益博弈的核心。2012年,美元进入第三个"17年大周期升浪"和临近"5年升值小周期",世界由此进入"美元升/全球资源资产贬"的格局之中。     

西方思潮冲击下的中国文化主体性建设

西方思潮的冲击是当代中国文化主体性建设面临的巨大挑战。中体西用、中国本位文化建设与"全盘西化"是近现代历史上最具代表性的回应模式,其共同症结是对中国传统文化缺乏自信。今天中国的文化主体性建设,要站在新的历史高度,在广泛吸收西方、中国文化精髓的基础上,从时代出发,综合创新,建立一种既具有中国鲜明特色又对世界具有引领功能的文化体系和价值观念。