中国资本外逃的测算与防范

资本外逃是金融危机产生的催化剂与蔓延的助动器 ,对一国经济安全构成极大威胁。通过介绍资本外逃及其测算模型 ,运用间接法对我国资本外逃进行估算 ,结果显示中国存在严重的资本外逃现象。在详细分析中国资本外逃的产生原因之后 ,具体提出了一些相关防范对策     

提高编校注意力探析

注意力是编校过程中重要的心理因素 ,直接影响编辑质量。应从利用有意注意 ,保持职业敏感 ;对编校差错进行分类 ,合理分配注意 ;选择注意 ,要有所为 ,有所不为 ;认准编校目标 ,培养注意稳定性等方面提高编校人员的注意力。     

论名牌产品的自主创新

抢占国际竞争的战略制高点关键靠核心技术,而核心技术必须是自主创新,它是创造名牌产品的关键。在构建社会主义和谐社会的今天,创造名牌产品是切实提高自主创新能力和国际竞争力的集中表现,是改善人民生活的需要,我国实施名牌战略中有几个误区,也有许多发展名牌产品的有利条件。建立争创名牌的企业内在环境和自主创新机制,坚持企业主体公平和合理的竞争原则等是名牌产品自主创新的措施。     

Sample Size and Power Calculation in Comparing Diagnostic Accuracy of Biomarkers with Pooled Assessments

When testing of a biomarker is costly, pooling of samples becomes a useful and efficient alternative (Faraggi et al., 2003). In this paper, we develop procedures for sample size and power calculations for planning a study comparing the accuracy of biomarkers in diagnosis of diseases with pooled samples. Explicit formulas are derived for several important pooling strategies. The effects of pooling samples on sample size and power of the test are also discussed.     

关于电阻测量几种方法的讨论

本文对电阻的测量方法及误差修正进行了比较和分析，并给出合理、直观、简捷的实验测试手段。     

On diagnostic checking of the autoregressive conditional intensity model

The autoregressive conditional intensity model proposed by Russell (1998) is a promising option for fitting multivariate high frequency irregularly spaced data. The authors acknowledge the validity of this model by showing the independence of its generalized residuals, a crucial assumption of the model formulation not readily recognized by researchers. The authors derive the large‐sample distribution of the autocorrelations of the generalized residual series and use it to construct a goodness‐of‐fit test for the model. Empirical results compare the performance of their test with other off‐the‐shelf tests such as the Ljung–Box test. They illustrate the use of their test with transaction records of the HSBC stock.     

M-Estimates of regression when the scale is unknown and the error distribution is possibly asymmetric: A minimax result

Huber (1964) found the minimax-variance M-estimate of location under the assumption that the scale parameter is known; Li and Zamar (1991) extended this result to the case when the scale is unknown. We consider the robust estimation of the regression coefficients (β₁,…,β_p) when the scale and the intercept parameters are unknown. The minimax-variance estimates of (β₁,…,β_p) with respect to the trace of their asymptotic covariance matrix are derived. The maximum is taken over ?-contamination neighbourhoods of a central regression model with Gaussian errors (asymmetric contamination is allowed), and the minimum is taken over a large class of generalized M-estimates of regression of the Mallow type. The optimal choice of estimates for the nuisance parameters (scale and intercept) is also considered.     

ST公司预警误判与会计信息质量关系的经验研究

本文以ST公司预警的相关判别模型为基础,经验地揭示了会计报表信息质量对ST公司预警误判的影响。研究表明:我国ST公司预警误判的原因在很大程度上与会计报表信息质量有关。为此,本文建议加快具体会计准则颁布和实施步伐,不断强化审计责任和监管部门的责任,提高会计信息质量。     

Learning from the Piper Alpha Accident: A Postmortem Analysis of Technical and Organizational Factors

The accident that occurred on board the offshore platform Piper Alpha in July 1988 killed 167 people and cost billions of dollars in property damage. It was caused by a massive fire, which was not the result of an unpredictable "act of God" but of an accumulation of errors and questionable decisions. Most of them were rooted in the organization, its structure, procedures, and culture. This paper analyzes the accident scenario using the risk analysis framework, determines which human decision and actions influenced the occurrence of the basic events, and then identifies the organizational roots of these decisions and actions. These organizational factors are generalizable to other industries and engineering systems. They include flaws in the design guidelines and design practices (e.g., tight physical couplings or insufficient redundancies), misguided priorities in the management of the tradeoff between productivity and safety, mistakes in the management of the personnel on board, and errors of judgment in the process by which financial pressures are applied on the production sector (i.e., the oil companies' definition of profit centers) resulting in deficiencies in inspection and maintenance operations. This analytical approach allows identification of risk management measures that go beyond the purely technical (e.g., add redundancies to a safety system) and also include improvements of management practices.     

M-Estimators of Scale with Minimum Gross Errors Sensitivity

The median absolute deviation (MAD) is known to be the M-estimator of scale with minimum gross errors sensitivity (GES) when the error distribution is known to be symmetric and strongly unimodal. The problem considered here is to find the Fisher consistent M-estimator with minimum GES when the error distribution is symmetric but not necessarily unimodal. Under some general conditions, the score function χ corresponding to the minimizing M-estimator has the form χ(x) = ?1 when |x| < a; χ(x) = c when a < |x| < b; χ(x) = 1 when |x| > b. An example is given in which the M-estimator with minimum GES does not correspond to the MAD.