Islamic Rule and the Empowerment of the Poor and Pious

Does Islamic political control affect women's empowerment? Several countries have recently experienced Islamic parties coming to power through democratic elections. Due to strong support among religious conservatives, constituencies with Islamic rule often tend to exhibit poor women's rights. Whether this reflects a causal relationship or a spurious one has so far gone unexplored. I provide the first piece of evidence using a new and unique data set of Turkish municipalities. In 1994, an Islamic party won multiple municipal mayor seats across the country. Using a regression discontinuity (RD) design, I compare municipalities where this Islamic party barely won or lost elections. Despite negative raw correlations, the RD results reveal that, over a period of six years, Islamic rule increased female secular high school education. Corresponding effects for men are systematically smaller and less precise. In the longer run, the effect on female education remained persistent up to 17 years after, and also reduced adolescent marriages. An analysis of long‐run political effects of Islamic rule shows increased female political participation and an overall decrease in Islamic political preferences. The results are consistent with an explanation that emphasizes the Islamic party's effectiveness in overcoming barriers to female entry for the poor and pious.     

城市交通拥堵与空气污染的交互影响机制研究——基于滴滴出行的大数据分析

城市交通拥堵与空气污染等问题给我国城市的持续发展带来了严峻挑战.本文以成都市为样本,通过融合滴滴出行订单数据、空气质量数据、气候信息等,采用断点回归模型和中介变量分析,对交通拥堵与空气污染之间的交互影响机制进行了研究.结果显示,网约车运行规模的增加会加剧城市的空气污染,其机制是由于车辆流动效率降低这一中介变量的作用,即交通拥堵导致空气污染的增加.但另一方面,空气污染又会对交通拥堵产生抑制作用,而这一现象产生的机制是由于空气污染会促使人们的出行减少,车辆需求和运行规模的减少反而使流动效率增加.本文从人们流动性行为的视角,揭示了城市交通拥堵与空气污染之间的复杂关系,为这些问题的协同治理提供了理论和实证依据.     

关于一类连续函数性质的讨论

讨论了开区间内仅含有第一类间断点的连续函数的性质，得到了函数的有界性、取得最大值和最小值及介值性定理，从而推广了开区间上连续函数的性质。     

南方汉语幼儿早期语言辅音时长的个案研究

通过对两名0;9-2;3月龄的南方汉语单语幼儿(一男一女)进行跟踪性调查,探讨他们的辅音时长特征。实验结果表明:两名儿童的辅音时长和变化随着年龄的增长而出现逐渐缩短和减少的趋势。在大多数情况下,这种时长变化的缩短和减少不一致,两者并没有呈现相同的变化趋势。此外,在对辅音时长进行统计分析时,发现女孩咿呀学语和早期词语阶段的辅音时长没有体现出显著差异,而男孩的却有。同时,通过与幼儿父母亲的对比,证实了父母亲对幼儿语言的时长变化存在影响,研究结果支持了早期交互假说。     

Some tests for a poisson process and their powers with respect to trend in the intensity

Recently many authors have worked on Wei bull process in the area of modelling and analysis. Much less work is done in the area of testing of hypothesis. In this article, some tests for testing the Poisson process against a class of Wei bull process based on the conditional distribution of observations given the sufficient statistic, are proposed. The percentage points of the distributions of the proposed test statistics are simulated. The powers of the tests under alternatives are computed by Monte Carlo method. It is seen that the suggested tests perform well for decreasing intensities.     

首轮退耕还林补贴到期对农户多维相对贫困的影响

基于甘肃、宁夏和湖南三地首轮退耕农户的调研数据,采用A F双界限方法测度退耕农户多维相对贫困发生率,在此基础上借助精确断点回归设计,实证检验退耕还林补贴到期对农户多维相对贫困的影响。结果表明:第一,补贴到期农户各维度及其多维相对贫困发生率均高于未到期农户;第二,补贴到期对相对收入、充分就业、生活水平、主观感知维度及多维相对贫困的局部平均处理效应均显著为正;第三,异质性分析发现,补贴到期对老年和低收入农户多维相对贫困的正向影响效应相对更强。鉴于此,从制定相关保障措施、建立防止返贫的动态监测和帮扶机制以及完善退耕还林后续政策等方面提出相应政策建议。     

Student achievement against national minimum standards for reading and numeracy in Years 3, 5, 7 and 9: A regression discontinuity analysis

Literacy and numeracy are essential for success in life. In Australia, students’ academic achievement is monitored using the National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN). One of the aims of NAPLAN is that results will drive student improvement by identifying which students are underperforming against national minimum standards and who require additional learning support. This study investigated the performance trajectories of students who were identified as “below the national minimum standards”, relative to students above the national minimum standards. This study used standardised reading and numeracy test scores for Australian students and regression discontinuity methods to investigate whether students who performed below the national minimum standards showed improved performance in subsequent years compared with similar students above the national minimum standards threshold. On average, achievement gaps between students below the standards and students at or above the standards persisted across year levels. Labelling students below the national minimum standards had no significant effects on later reading or numeracy achievement. The results suggest the NAPLAN national minimum standards labelling is not driving student improvement, highlighting the need for effective early identification and interventions for children who do not meet school year benchmarks for literacy and numeracy.     

Local Linear Kernel Regression with Long-Range Dependent Errors

This paper considers the use of a local linear kernel regression method to test whether the mean function of a sequence of long-range dependent processes has discontinuities or change-points. It proposes a non-parametric estimation procedure and then establishes an asymptotic theory for the estimation procedure. Examples, simulated and real, illustrate the estimation procedure.     

Empirical Bayes estimation for archaeological stratigraphy

Models and algorithms are presented for the stratigraphic analysis of earth core samples collected at archaeological sites. The aim is to separate the occupation of the site into distinct periods, by dividing the earth core into well-defined blocks of uniform magnetic susceptibility. The models describe the response of detector equipment by using both a spread function and an error process, and they incorporate prior beliefs regarding the nature of the true susceptibility values. The prior parameters are estimated by using pseudolikelihood and the susceptibilities by maximum a posteriori methods via the one-step-late algorithm. These procedures are illustrated with data from synthetic and real core specimens. The new procedures prove to be far superior to other approaches, producing reconstructions which clearly show distinct periods of uniform magnetic susceptibility separated by sharp discontinuities.     

实函数间断点的某些特性

本文给出了几类常见函数间断点及一般实函数第一类间断点的某些特性,并指出它们在实际问题中的应用.