基于漂移度的动态组合评价方法研究

为了解决多种动态评价方法评价结论非一致性问题,提出动态组合评价方法。以相容动态评价方法集为基础对不同动态评价方法的漂移性进行测度研究,提出了基于漂移度的动态组合评价方法。最后用一个实例说明本研究实际应用上的有效性。基于漂移度的动态组合评价方法对解决多种动态评价方法评价结论非一致性问题提供了思路,是综合评价方法研究的有益补充,可以利用该方法进行应用研究。     

Competition for a Majority

We define the class of two‐player zero‐sum games with payoffs having mild discontinuities, which in applications typically stem from how ties are resolved. For such games, we establish sufficient conditions for existence of a value of the game, maximin and minimax strategies for the players, and a Nash equilibrium. If all discontinuities favor one player, then a value exists and that player has a maximin strategy. A property called payoff approachability implies existence of an equilibrium, and that the resulting value is invariant: games with the same payoffs at points of continuity have the same value and ɛ‐equilibria. For voting games in which two candidates propose policies and a candidate wins election if a weighted majority of voters prefer his proposed policy, we provide tie‐breaking rules and assumptions about voters' preferences sufficient to imply payoff approachability. These assumptions are satisfied by generic preferences if the dimension of the space of policies exceeds the number of voters; or with no dimensional restriction, if the electorate is sufficiently large. Each Colonel Blotto game is a special case in which each candidate allocates a resource among several constituencies and a candidate gets votes from those allocated more than his opponent offers; in this case, for simple‐majority rule we prove existence of an equilibrium with zero probability of ties.     

利用储存器计算非连续结构

非连续结构指的是某些意义上完整但句法表现上却断裂的语言成分。非连续结构虽然结构特殊,但在自然语言中具有普遍性。普通的移进、归约方法在计算非连续成分时是无效的。尽管范畴逻辑语法提出了一些办法,但是未能对非连续现象进行统一的处理。实际上,语义上的计算步骤不一定要严格对应句法操作,Cooper储存是这样一种典型的方法。它不但可以用来处理广义量词的计算问题,也可以在稍加改造后用来处理一般非连续结构。这里提出了一种吸收Cooper储存的基于LR方法的计算方法:它使用了一个监视句法分析流程的装置,并要求对非连续成分进行分类和标注。这种方法的好处是完全不用更动传统的句法分析。     

市场异象与风格漂移的动态相依性——基于Copula函数的经验研究

为对中国股票型基金普遍存在的风格错配现象进行有效解释,从市场异象与风格漂移之间的内在逻辑关系出发,利用Copula模型对中国股票市场的价值溢价、规模溢价和动量溢价等主要市场异象与风格漂移之间的动态相依关系进行考察。研究发现:价值溢价、规模溢价与风格漂移之间存在不够显著的动态相依关系,其尾部相关结构以下尾相关为主;动量溢价与风格漂移之间存在显著的动态相依关系和对称的尾部相关性。上述结果说明:中国股票型基金尚不具备成熟的市场异象识别能力,在风格投资中更多地表现出一种追涨杀跌的羊群效应。     

长江下游地区挖入式港池口门宽度的计算方法

受长江航道的自然地形水深和南京长江大桥通航净空的限制,港口物流服务的腹地纵向延伸和广域化辐射受到较大阻碍,因此,在长江下游河段新建的港口宜尽量兼备承接上游来船转运出海的功能和由海轮转驳江轮的功能。现行规范对于挖入式港池宽度已有较为详细的规定,但对于船舶进出于两码头之间的挖入式港池口门宽度还没有明确的规定和要求,从航道角度出发,引入航行漂角和偏航角概念,着力于阐述船舶进出于两码头之间的挖入式港池口门宽度的计算确定方法。     

一类Kantorovic型算子对不连续函数的逼近

研究了一类Kantorovic型算子Pn^＊（f，z）对不连续函数的逼近，给出了逼近阶的估计．     

随机波动HJM框架下信用利差模型及实证研究

将随机波动引入到具有违约风险的HJM模型中,基于无套利条件推导得出随机波动HJM模型框架下信用利差的漂移项限制条件,从而构建了随机波动HJM框架下的信用利差模型,并基于波动率结构的适当设定对模型进行马尔科夫简化,进而利用该模型对中国可违约债券市场信用利差的动态特性进行实证分析。结果发现：短期信用利差的动态特性具有显著的随机波动特征,而随机波动HJM框架下的信用利差模型可以很好地刻画中国可违约债券市场信用利差的动态特性。     

制度转型期中国本土企业适应性成长路径——基于海尔不连续创新的经验研究

探讨了中国制度转型背景下动态环境对企业组织适应性成长路径的影响,提出不连续创新是中国企业适应性成长的战略选择。在文献分析的基础上,将中国本土企业的不连续创新的发生情境界定为战略更新、业务领域调整、组织结构战略性变革和海外市场扩张4种,并以海尔1984~2009年间发展历程中的不连续创新事件为对象进行分析和论证,研究外部环境特征、企业不连续创新和组织适应性之间的共同演化关系。研究结果表明:环境不连续变化是企业不连续创新的直接诱因;不连续创新是转型经济背景下中国企业加速组织适应性的战略性选择,其演化趋势是更加强调外部资源整合、战略柔性、多元化和组织结构的网络化;在动态环境下企业战略选择与组织结构变革的长期协同演化将导致企业组织适应性的形成。     

投资者异质信念与证券市场盈余公告效应研究

盈余公告效应异象在各国资本市场普遍存在,行为金融理论中的投资者异质信念视角能较好地解释该异象。实证结果表明：投资者异质信念与盈余公告前后短期内累积超额收益率显著正相关,与盈余公告后长期累积超额收益率显著负相关;其中,低盈余质量强化了这种负向影响。投资者异质信念程度越大、盈余质量越低,长期累积超额收益率越小。     

Application of a Markovian process to the calculation of mean time equilibrium in a genetic drift model

The most common phenomena in the evolution process are natural selection and genetic drift. In this article, we propose a probabilistic method to calculate the mean and variance time for random genetic drift equilibrium, measured as number of generations, based on Markov process and a complex probabilistic model. We studied the case of a constant, panmictic population of diploid organisms, which had a demonstrated lack of mutation, selection or migration for a determined autonomic locus, and two possible alleles, H and h. The calculations presented in this article were based on a Markov process. They explain how genetic and genotypic frequencies changed in different generations and how the heterozygote alleles became extinguished after many generations. This calculation could be used in more evolutionary applications. Finally, some simulations are presented to illustrate the theoretical calculations presented using different basal situations.