Temporary migration: a case study of Florida

Most migration statistics in the United States focus on changes in permanent residence, thereby missing temporary moves such as the daily commute to work, business trips, vacations, and seasonal migration. In this paper, we analyze temporary migration streams in Florida, focusing on moves that include an extended stay. Using several types of survey data, we examine the characteristics of non-Floridians who spend part of the year in Florida and Floridians who spend part of the year elsewhere. We develop estimates of the number, timing, and duration of temporary moves and the origins, destinations, characteristics, and motivations of temporary migrants. This study presents the most comprehensive analysis yet of temporary migration in Florida and provides a model that can be used in other places. It also points to a serious shortcoming in the US statistical system, namely, the lack of information on temporary migration streams. We believe the American Community Survey provides an opportunity to remedy this problem.     

Estimation in Semiparametric Marginal Shared Gamma Frailty Models

The semiparametric marginal shared frailty models in survival analysis have the non–parametric hazard functions multiplied by a random frailty in each cluster, and the survival times conditional on frailties are assumed to be independent. In addition, the marginal hazard functions have the same form as in the usual Cox proportional hazard models. In this paper, an approach based on maximum likelihood and expectation–maximization is applied to semiparametric marginal shared gamma frailty models, where the frailties are assumed to be gamma distributed with mean 1 and variance θ. The estimates of the fixed–effect parameters and their standard errors obtained using this approach are compared in terms of both bias and efficiency with those obtained using the extended marginal approach. Similarly, the standard errors of our frailty variance estimates are found to compare favourably with those obtained using other methods. The asymptotic distribution of the frailty variance estimates is shown to be a 50–50 mixture of a point mass at zero and a truncated normal random variable on the positive axis for θ₀ = 0. Simulations demonstrate that, for θ₀ < 0, it is approximately an x −(100 − x )%, 0 ≤ x ≤ 50, mixture between a point mass at zero and a truncated normal random variable on the positive axis for small samples and small values of θ₀; otherwise, it is approximately normal.     

Bias in Multinomial Models

This paper investigates bias in parameter estimates and residual diagnostics for parametric multinomial models by considering the effect of deleting a cell. In particular, it describes the average changes in the standardized residuals and maximum likelihood estimates resulting from conditioning on the given cells. These changes suggest how individual cell observations affect biases. Emphasis is placed on the role of individual cell observations in determining bias and on how bias affects standard diagnostic methods. Examples from genetics and log–linear models are considered. Numerical results show that conditioning on an influential cell results in substantial changes in biases.     

球面最小范数插值的误差估计

由球面一基本系及半内积空间构成一Hilbert函数空间,对该函数空间上的最小范数插值,给出了一致误差估计.     

Estimation of parameters of Kumaraswamy-Exponential distribution under progressive type-II censoring

In this paper, the problem of estimating unknown parameters of a two-parameter Kumaraswamy-Exponential (Kw-E) distribution is considered based on progressively type-II censored sample. The maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the parameters are obtained. Bayes estimates are also obtained using different loss functions such as squared error, LINEX and general entropy. Lindley's approximation method is used to evaluate these Bayes estimates. Monte Carlo simulation is used for numerical comparison between various estimates developed in this paper.     

The median estimate of the autoregressive location parameter

A median-based estimate of the location (i.e. intercept) parameter in an autoregressive time series is considered. Specifically, the asymptotic joint distribution of the location estimate and a location invariant estimate of the AR parameter vector is derived. Applications of this result to rank-based estimates are briefly discussed and illustrated with a numerical example.     

Exploring spatial dependence in area-level random effect model for disaggregate-level crop yield estimation

This paper describes an application of small area estimation (SAE) techniques under area-level spatial random effect models when only area (or district or aggregated) level data are available. In particular, the SAE approach is applied to produce district-level model-based estimates of crop yield for paddy in the state of Uttar Pradesh in India using the data on crop-cutting experiments supervised under the Improvement of Crop Statistics scheme and the secondary data from the Population Census. The diagnostic measures are illustrated to examine the model assumptions as well as reliability and validity of the generated model-based small area estimates. The results show a considerable gain in precision in model-based estimates produced applying SAE. Furthermore, the model-based estimates obtained by exploiting spatial information are more efficient than the one obtained by ignoring this information. However, both of these model-based estimates are more efficient than the direct survey estimate. In many districts, there is no survey data and therefore it is not possible to produce direct survey estimates for these districts. The model-based estimates generated using SAE are still reliable for such districts. These estimates produced by using SAE will provide invaluable information to policy-analysts and decision-makers.     

A comparison of doubly robust estimators of the mean with missing data

We consider data with a continuous outcome that is missing at random and a fully observed set of covariates. We compare by simulation a variety of doubly-robust (DR) estimators for estimating the mean of the outcome. An estimator is DR if it is consistent when either the regression model for the mean function or the propensity to respond is correctly specified. Performance of different methods is compared in terms of root mean squared error of the estimates and width and coverage of confidence intervals or posterior credibility intervals in repeated samples. Overall, the DR methods tended to yield better inference than the incorrect model when either the propensity or mean model is correctly specified, but were less successful for small sample sizes, where the asymptotic DR property is less consequential. Two methods tended to outperform the other DR methods: penalized spline of propensity prediction [Little RJA, An H. Robust likelihood-based analysis of multivariate data with missing values. Statist Sinica. 2004;14:949–968] and the robust method proposed in [Cao W, Tsiatis AA, Davidian M. Improving efficiency and robustness of the doubly robust estimator for a population mean with incomplete data. Biometrika. 2009;96:723–734].     

Collinearity in generalized linear regression

The problem of ill-conditioning in generalized linear regression is investigated. Besides collinearity among the explanatory variables, we define another type of ill-conditioning, namely ML-collinearity, which has similar detrimental effects on the covariance matrix, e.g. inflation of some of the estimated standard errors of the regression coefficients. For either situation there is collinearity among the columns of the matrix of the weighted variables. We present both methods to detect, as well as practical examples to illustrate, the difference between these two types of ill-conditioning. Also the applicability of alternative regression methods will be reviewed.     

A hybrid bandwidth selection methodology for kernel density estimation

A bandwidth selection method that combines the concept of least-squares cross-validation and the plug-in approach is being introduced in connection with kernel density estimation. A simulation study reveals that this hybrid methodology outperforms some commonly used bandwidth selection rules. It is shown that the proposed approach can also be readily employed in the context of variable kernel density estimation. We conclude with two illustrative examples.