A more general methodology for fitting global cross-ratio models for discrete longitudinal responses

In this paper, we focus on repeated measurement problems, comprising an interesting research area in statistics. We study longitudinal data which arise when outcomes are observed repeatedly on each experimental subject at several points. We focus on a marginal approach for this type of data with lack of independence among the observations proposed by Dale [Global cross-ratio models for bivariate, discrete, ordered responses. Biometrics. 1986;42(4):909–917] for bivariate, discrete, ordered responses. We propose an alternative estimation based on divergence measures to the full likelihood method proposed in that paper. Finally, a wide simulation study and a data example that illustrates the new methodology is provided.     

A stepwise discrete variable selection procedure

A stepwise variable selection procedure for multinomial discrimination is presented and discussed. Based upon the work of Kullback and Hills, stopping rules are proposed and illustrated for a set of data on communication buyer behavior.     

On the mathematics of the Jeffreys–Lindley paradox

This paper is concerned with the well known Jeffreys–Lindley paradox. In a Bayesian set up, the so-called paradox arises when a point null hypothesis is tested and an objective prior is sought for the alternative hypothesis. In particular, the posterior for the null hypothesis tends to one when the uncertainty, i.e., the variance, for the parameter value goes to infinity. We argue that the appropriate way to deal with the paradox is to use simple mathematics, and that any philosophical argument is to be regarded as irrelevant.     

Some properties of Lin–Wong divergence on the past lifetime data

Measures of statistical divergence are used to assess mutual similarities between distributions of multiple variables through a variety of methodologies including Shannon entropy and Csiszar divergence. Modified measures of statistical divergence are introduced throughout the present article. Those modified measures are related to the Lin–Wong (LW) divergence applied on the past lifetime data. Accordingly, the relationship between Fisher information and the LW divergence measure was explored when applied on the past lifetime data. Throughout this study, a number of relations are proposed between various assessment methods which implement the Jensen–Shannon, Jeffreys, and Hellinger divergence measures. Also, relations between the LW measure and the Kullback–Leibler (KL) measures for past lifetime data were examined. Furthermore, the present study discusses the relationship between the proposed ordering scheme and the distance interval between LW and KL measures under certain conditions.     

Csiszar’s ϕ-divergences for testing the order in a Markov chain

x ₁, ..., x _n+r can be treated as the sample values of a Markov chain of order r or less (chain in which the dependence extends over r+1 consecutive variables only), and consider the problem of testing the hypothesis H ₀ that a chain of order r− 1 will be sufficient on the basis of the tools given by the Statistical Information Theory: _ϕ-Divergences. More precisely, if p _{a 1 ....., a r}: _{a r +1} denotes the transition probability for a r ^th order Markov chain, the hypothesis to be tested is H ₀:p _{a 1 ....., a r}: _{a r +1} = p _{a 2 ....., a r}: _{a r +1}, a _i ∈{1, ..., s}, i = 1, ..., r + 1 The tests given in this paper, for the first time, will have as a particular case the likelihood ratio test and the test based on the chi-squared statistic. Received: August 3, 1998; revised version: November 25, 1999     

Bayesian predictive densities based on latent information priors

Construction methods for prior densities are investigated from a predictive viewpoint. Predictive densities for future observables are constructed by using observed data. The simultaneous distribution of future observables and observed data is assumed to belong to a parametric submodel of a multinomial model. Future observables and data are possibly dependent. The discrepancy of a predictive density to the true conditional density of future observables given observed data is evaluated by the Kullback-Leibler divergence. It is proved that limits of Bayesian predictive densities form an essentially complete class. Latent information priors are defined as priors maximizing the conditional mutual information between the parameter and the future observables given the observed data. Minimax predictive densities are constructed as limits of Bayesian predictive densities based on prior sequences converging to the latent information priors.     

Bayesian Binomial Regression: Predicting Survival at a Trauma Center

Standard methods for analyzing binomial regression data rely on asymptotic inferences. Bayesian methods can be performed using simple computations, and they apply for any sample size. We provide a relatively complete discussion of Bayesian inferences for binomial regression with emphasis on inferences for the probability of “success.” Furthermore, we illustrate diagnostic tools, perform model selection among nonnested models, and examine the sensitivity of the Bayesian methods.     

Does the twin deficit hypothesis hold in the OECD countries under different real interest rate regimes?

This paper explores the validity of the twin deficit hypothesis in selected 25 OECD countries with annual data for 2005–2016 by considering different real interest rate regimes. A non-dynamic panel threshold model, introduced by Hansen (1999), is employed. The novelty of the empirical findings from the present study is that there exists a non-linear relationship between the budget deficit and the trade balance, which is driven by a critical threshold level in the real interest rates. The findings suggest that twin deficit hypothesis holds only under the low real interest rate regime, that is, rises in budget deficits lead to deteriorations in the trade balance when the real interest rate is below the threshold level. When the high real interest rate (i.e. above-the-threshold) regime is concerned, increasing budget deficits give rise to improvements in the trade balance, a finding consistent with the twin divergence hypothesis. Thus, the effect on the trade balance of an expansionary fiscal policy that worsens the budget balance reverses substantially depending on the threshold level of the real interest rates. The major policy implication of this paper is that the policy makers in the selected OECD countries should pay a greater attention to fiscal discipline in order to prevent the trade balance from worsening, because the majority of the countries fall into the low real interest rate regime over the recent years of the sample period (i.e. between 2010 and 2016).     

新闻话语方式对股价的影响——基于财经媒体类型的视角

研究新闻话语方式对投资者股票交易行为及股价的影响,挑战在于话语方式不容易刻画。鉴于新闻报道的话语权主体即媒体均有鲜明的立场意图,尝试通过财经媒体类型刻画新闻话语方式,结合沪深300指数样本,利用网络爬虫、汉语分词系统及情感分析软件等工具,对新闻话语方式对股价的影响展开探索性的定量研究。研究结果表明:政府背景财经媒体、专业财经媒体及互联网财经媒体这3类媒体类型在报道数量、信息简洁度、情感得分及情感分歧方面存在显著差别,并通过投资者关注度及投资者情绪对股价波动发挥不同程度的影响。     

三代人同时面对文学

20世纪80年代的《读书》，三个主要作者群体共同面对现当代文学，第一代人与后两代人早已暗暗存有分歧。《读书》表面上出现了三种主流的音调，但是实际上其中的文学图景是各自孤立的板块式结构，这种结构也成为了80年代之后的《读书》分裂和困境的源头。