On Bayesian learning via loss functions

We provide a decision theoretic approach to the construction of a learning process in the presence of independent and identically distributed observations. Starting with a probability measure representing beliefs about a key parameter, the approach allows the measure to be updated via the solution to a well defined decision problem. While the learning process encompasses the Bayesian approach, a necessary asymptotic consideration then actually implies the Bayesian learning process is best. This conclusion is due to the requirement of posterior consistency for all models and of having standardized losses between probability distributions. This is shown considering a specific continuous model and a very general class of discrete models.     

中日两国南京大屠杀研究的回顾与思考

南京大屠杀是人类历史上最为残暴的惨案之一。20年来,中日两国学者在南京大屠杀的史料搜集和历史研究方面取得了丰硕的成果,但是,中日双方以及日本学者内部在南京大屠杀的概念、死亡人数、大屠杀成因以及对史料的解读等方面仍存在较大的分歧,争论至今没有停止。战后日本政府对待侵略战争的态度、国际政治的变幻、学者和社会大众立场身份的限制以及有关南京大屠杀核心史料的缺失等因素扩大了中日之间历史认识的分歧。因此,突破政治制约,构建学术对话平台,并注入人类文明的视角以推动研究的国际化将是中日史学工作者今后努力的方向。     

A Dynamic Discrimination Information Based On Cumulative Residual Entropy And Its Properties

In this article, we introduce a measure of discrepancy between two life-time distributions based on cumulative residual entropy. The dynamic form of this measure is considered and some of its properties are obtained. The relations between dynamic form and some well-known concepts in reliability such as mean residual life-time, hazard rate order, and new better (worse) than used are studied.     

Variance Estimation and Asymptotic Confidence Bands for the Mean Estimator of Sampled Functional Data with High Entropy Unequal Probability Sampling Designs

For fixed size sampling designs with high entropy, it is well known that the variance of the Horvitz–Thompson estimator can be approximated by the Hájek formula. The interest of this asymptotic variance approximation is that it only involves the first order inclusion probabilities of the statistical units. We extend this variance formula when the variable under study is functional, and we prove, under general conditions on the regularity of the individual trajectories and the sampling design, that we can get a uniformly convergent estimator of the variance function of the Horvitz–Thompson estimator of the mean function. Rates of convergence to the true variance function are given for the rejective sampling. We deduce, under conditions on the entropy of the sampling design, that it is possible to build confidence bands whose coverage is asymptotically the desired one via simulation of Gaussian processes with variance function given by the Hájek formula. Finally, the accuracy of the proposed variance estimator is evaluated on samples of electricity consumption data measured every half an hour over a period of 1 week.     

Level-specific correction for nonparametric likelihoods

The popular empirical likelihood method not only has a convenient chi-square limiting distribution but is also Bartlett correctable, leading to a high-order coverage precision of the resulting confidence regions. Meanwhile, it is one of many nonparametric likelihoods in the Cressie–Read power divergence family. The other likelihoods share many attractive properties but are not Bartlett correctable. In this paper, we develop a new technique to achieve the effect of being Bartlett correctable. Our technique is generally applicable to pivotal quantities with chi-square limiting distributions. Numerical experiments and an example reveal that the method is successful for several important nonparametric likelihoods.     

涉外商务谈判与文化ABC

由于文化不同 ,各国和各地区的谈判风格各异 ,要想成功地进行涉外商务谈判 ,谈判者必须不断地了解并且研究这些差异。     

TDRSS激光空间链路光功率设计

从光功率的角度,分析了卫星间长距离和出射光束发散角产生的空间传输损耗,当传输速率增加、误码率上升时,接收机灵敏度下降;讨论了不同卫星数目时传输损耗与激光束发散角的关系,在考虑其他光功率开销后,得出了发射光功率,发散角和接收灵敏度相互制约关系。     

Estimating density ratio with application to discriminant analysis

The estimator ? for the ratio of densities based on grade transformation is introduced. Under certain conditions the strong uniform consistency of ? is proved and its asymptotic law is determined. The result is applied to study the behaviour of divergence curve used in discriminant analysis.     

“六·一六兵变”前孙陈分歧研究补阙

陈炯明作为民国史上颇有争议的人物,他与孙中山从政见分歧演化到兵变决裂,这其中的是非曲直非常复杂。孙陈二人关系的这种演变,经历了一个相当长的过程,其中既有个性的因素,也有对诸如北伐之类问题不同政见的因素。     

论唐五代唐诗学与诗歌创作的离合

唐诗学的发展与唐诗创作关系极为密切,但两者并不总是同步。我们视唐五代为唐诗学的萌生期。唐前期的唐诗学与唐诗创作是同步的,即唐诗创作繁荣的同时,唐诗学也由萌生而不断开拓,终于走向自立。唐后期则出现反差,唐诗学全面开拓,唐诗创作则题材转变、萎缩,风格内敛,追求细美幽约,二者大体上呈背离走向。