A Social Problems Framework for the Critical Appraisal of Automobility and Sustainable Systems Innovation

Over the past three decades, critical assessment of the automobile has evolved from a focus on the technical inadequacies of the internal combustion engine to a more comprehensive appraisal of the sociotechnical system for providing mobility. The following study charts the evolution of this discourse by focusing in particular on the way in which the Worldwatch Institute has interpreted the various problems of the motorcar during this timeframe. There are now indications that a more thoroughgoing systems view of automobile dependency is developing predicated upon three problem dimensions: fuel use, urban congestion and sedentary lifestyles. The analysis presents a social‐problems framework for beginning to conceptualize more sustainable modes of mobility in the post‐automobile era.     

Optimal use of two auxiliary variables in double sampling

Double sampling scheme is used when cheap auxiliary variables may be measured to improve the estimation of a finite population parameter. Several estimators for population mean, ratio of means and variance are available, when two dependent samples are drawn. However, there are few proposals for the case of independent samples. In this paper both cases of dependent and independent samples are dealt with. A general approach for estimating a finite population parameter is given, showing that all the proposed estimators are particular cases of the same general class. The minimum variance bound for any estimator in this class is provided (at the first order of approximation). Furthermore, an optimal estimator which reaches this minimum is found.     

Quantile plots for mean effects in the presence of variance effects for 2k-p designs

In robust parameter design, variance effects and mean effects in a factorial experiment are modelled simultaneously. If variance effects are present in a model, correlations are induced among the naive estimators of the mean effects. A simple normal quantile plot of the mean effects may be misleading because the mean effects are no longer iid under the null hypothesis that they are zero. Adjusted quantiles are computed for the case when one variance effect is significant and examples of 8-run and 16-run fractional factorial designs are examined in detail. We find that the usual normal quantiles are similar to adjusted quantiles for all but the largest and smallest ordered effects for which they are conservative. Graphically, the qualitative difference between the two sets of quantiles is negligible (even in the presence of large variance effects) and we conclude that normal probability plots are robust in the presence of variance effects.     

Continuous outcomes stochastically mismeasured as discrete random variables: a maximum likelihood approach

In an economic model of retirement behavior, a continuous dependent variable was required; the variable could only be estimated discretely with error, however. Parameter estimates using this dependent variable and ordinary least squares regression are inefficient. In th is paper, we develop a maximum likelihood procedure which adjusts for this heteroscedasticity.     

Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Multiplicative Models with Dependent Data

Abstract.  Several classical time series models can be written as a regression model between the components of a strictly stationary bivariate process. Some of those models, such as the ARCH models, share the property of proportionality of the regression function and the scale function, which is an interesting feature in econometric and financial models. In this article, we present a procedure to test for this feature in a non-parametric context. The test is based on the difference between two non-parametric estimators of the distribution of the regression error. Asymptotic results are proved and some simulations are shown in the paper in order to illustrate the finite sample properties of the procedure.     

A Spatial-temporal Model for Temperature with Seasonal Variance

We propose a spatial-temporal stochastic model for daily average surface temperature data. First, we build a model for a single spatial location, independently on the spatial information. The model includes trend, seasonality, and mean reversion, together with a seasonally dependent variance of the residuals. The spatial dependency is modelled by a Gaussian random field. Empirical fitting to data collected in 16 measurement stations in Lithuania over more than 40 years shows that our model captures the seasonality in the autocorrelation of the squared residuals, a property of temperature data already observed by other authors. We demonstrate through examples that our spatial-temporal model is applicable for prediction and classification.     

人民公社动员体制的利益机制和实现手段

在人民公社时期,为了使农村服从为工业发展提供积累这一社会目标体系,国家采取了一系列刚性措施:在经济上,国家以统购统销的计划经济为制度性基础,通过土地等生产资料集体化甚至生活资料的集体控制等手段,迫使农民对"集体"经济依附;在政治上,国家行政权力通过农民所依附的集体组织和各种党群团体深入到了农村最基层,并用强制性户籍制度对农民进行人身管制;在思想上,大力宣传以阶级斗争和权力神化为主要内容的奴化文化,并以政治运动的方式对反叛势力进行镇压,使整个社会处于高压之中。     

Generalized Sobol sensitivity indices for dependent variables: numerical methods

The hierarchically orthogonal functional decomposition of any measurable function η of a random vector X=(X₁,?…?, X_p) consists in decomposing η(X) into a sum of increasing dimension functions depending only on a subvector of X. Even when X₁,?…?, X_p are assumed to be dependent, this decomposition is unique if the components are hierarchically orthogonal. That is, two of the components are orthogonal whenever all the variables involved in one of the summands are a subset of the variables involved in the other. Setting Y=η(X), this decomposition leads to the definition of generalized sensitivity indices able to quantify the uncertainty of Y due to each dependent input in X [Chastaing G, Gamboa F, Prieur C. Generalized Hoeffding–Sobol decomposition for dependent variables – application to sensitivity analysis. Electron J Statist. 2012;6:2420–2448]. In this paper, a numerical method is developed to identify the component functions of the decomposition using the hierarchical orthogonality property. Furthermore, the asymptotic properties of the components estimation is studied, as well as the numerical estimation of the generalized sensitivity indices of a toy model. Lastly, the method is applied to a model arising from a real-world problem.     

Complete consistency for the estimator of nonparametric regression models based on extended negatively dependent errors

In this paper, we provide some exponential inequalities for extended negatively dependent (END) random variables. By using these exponential inequalities and the truncated method, we investigate the complete consistency for the estimator of nonparametric regression model based on END errors. As an application, the complete consistency for the nearest neighbour estimator is obtained.