城市经济转型与上海国际航运中心建设

“十二五”时期是上海经济转型的重要时期。上海大力发展航运业,建设国际航运中心有利于促进城市产业规模的提高,带动城市产业升级与经济转型,实现腹地城市之间的互动发展;同时也会带来城市环境污染、交通拥挤和港口非良性竞争等负面效应。因此,上海国际航运中心建设需要借鉴国际经验和惯例,通过先行先试,不断创新体制、机制和政策,必须从过去单纯追求“量”的外延式增长转变为注重“质”的内涵式发展,由传统意义的货物集散中心迈向现代意义的资源配置中心。为此,上海港口与航运服务业必须率先转变发展方式、调整产业结构、创新服务功能、实现错位异构发展。在上述分析基础上,提出上海城市转型时期国际航运中心建设的主要对策。     

Failures of the reduction principle in an Ellsberg-type problem

Segal (1987) suggested that the Ellsberg paradox might be explained in terms of individuals mentally representing the decision problem as a two-stage lottery which they evaluated according to a non-expected utility model. This paper describes an experiment involving an explicitly two-stage analogue to an Ellsberg-type problem. This design substantially reduces the frequency of classic Ellsberg behaviour, but reveals other systematic violations of conventional theory. The paper discusses the particular patterns of choice and raises the more general problem of modelling individual decisions when the reduction principle does not hold.     

西部少数民族地区农村劳动力的转移——青海“拉面经济”现象的分析

青海拉面经济成为青海众多农村劳务人员致富的成功法宝。本文分析了青海拉面经济的现状、经济特征以及成功因素。青海拉面经济的成功主要包括独特的生产要素、广阔的需求市场、独特的竞争策略、政府支持等;青海拉面经济带来了收入、就业、社会、其他产业等效应。是落后的青海省同发达的东南沿海互动促进少数民族地区发展的典型案例;文章最后得出了几点启示,并提出了青海拉面经济进一步发展的建议。     

李斯特:一位长期被误解的经济学家

李斯特对英法古典经济学所大加批判的 ,只是他所认为的这一理论体系中没有研究国家经济问题 ,他并未全盘否定古典经济学 ,而是有条件地接受或认同了古典学派的个人利己主义和经济自由主义原则 ,以及自由贸易学说。李斯特不是古典经济学的反对者 ,而是继承和完善英法古典经济学的经济学家     

Convergence or Continuity? The Gender Gap in Household Labor After Retirement

This research examined 2 hypotheses about the effect of retirement on couples' division of household labor. The continuity hypothesis posits that the gender gap in household labor remains unaffected by retirement, whereas the convergence hypothesis expects it to close. The authors tested these hypotheses using longitudinal data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel Study (N = 1,302 couples). Fixed effects models revealed that male breadwinners doubled up on total hours of household labor across their transition to retirement. This rise was accompanied by a concurrent, albeit less pronounced, decline in wives' hours. As a result, the gender gap in household labor was cut in half. This convergence involved a moderate trade‐off in female‐typed tasks of routine housework and an increase in husbands' hours spent on male‐typed tasks of repairs and gardening. The study concludes that gendered patterns of time use change substantially after retirement, rendering couples' division of household labor more equitable in later life.     

A Prospective Study of Behavioural Disturbance in Children Who Subsequently Experience Parental Divorce

This study examines changes in children's behaviour as a function of parental divorce. As part of a large scale general population study on the effects of marital disharmony on children, 139 children from the general population were followed up from a previous study. These children and their mothers were interviewed first between 1979 and 1982 (time 1) and then followed up between 1984 and 1986 (time 2). Between the time 1 interview and the time 2 interview, 16 children's parents had separated or divorced. This paper deals with the mothers' report of changes in the behaviour of these children between time 1 and time 2 as a function of their parents' divorce, and compares this with changes in children's behaviour whose parents live in disharmonious (N = 40) or harmonious homes (N = 50). Children's reports of their own behaviour at time 2 are also presented. The data show that children in disharmonious homes and children whose parents subsequently divorce show higher levels of disturbance than children in harmonious homes. Children whose parents subsequently divorce show their disturbance prior to the divorce. Children's coping strategies in response to divorce were also investigated and and an association was found between children's behavioural problems and (a) self-blame and (b) not having friends whose parents had divorced.     

全球经济纵横谈

本轮全球经济金融危机和贸易逆差背后的因素在于美国。这主要是与1980年代以后美国开始推行金融自由化和2001互联网泡沫破灭后美联储的货币应对政策失误有关。其根源在于目前的国际货币体系。美国作为储备货币国为了解决国内的问题,在宏观的货币政策当中只考虑本国的利益,结果就产生了对全世界的影响。目前国际上主流理论界普遍认为政府应该控制赤字规模,以提高私营部门投资的信心,这种做法很可能既不能帮助经济走出危机,也不能控制赤字快速积累,必须实行全球的超越凯恩斯主义的复苏计划。现在主流发展经济学的理论有相当大的问题,在中国的未来发展过程中,必然还有很多矛盾和冲突出现。我们只有独立研究,进行理论创新,把问题看得更全面,才会让我们在国际经济发展中化被动为主动。     

Amos Tversky and the Ascent of Behavioral Economics

Amos Tversky investigated and explained a wide range of phenomena that lead to anomalous human decisions. His two most significant contributions, both written with Daniel Kahneman, are the decision-making heuristics—representativeness, availability, and anchoring—and prospect theory. Tversky's concepts have broadly influenced the social sciences. In economics, they gave rise to the burgeoning field of behavioral economics. This field, skeptical of perfect rationality, emphasizes validation of modeling assumptions, integration of micro-level data on decisions (including experimental evidence), and adoption of lessons from psychology. Tversky's contributions are reviewed, assessed using citation analysis, and placed in historical context. Fertile areas for behavioral economics research are identified.     

International Rule of Law and Methodological Innovation

The practice of the international rule of law needs a theoretical guide, and the formulation of the theory of international law has to depend upon practice, which imposes new requirement upon the methodology of international law. Traditional research into legal doctrine is unfavorable to the creative exertion of international jurisprudence, and the research methods of social sciences are playing an increasingly important role in the methodological innovation of international law. From the perspective of promotion of the international rule of law, the study of international law needs to deep research a State’s motives, cause and innate logic in observing international aw, and law and economics can show its capability in this field. For the international rule of law, basic research needs to be carried about such social surroundings as where the rules are produced and applied and exerting influences. The research method of the sociology of law exactly hits the point. The application of empirical and experimental research methods offers a beforehand “rehearsal” chance for the process of the rule of law to grasp the pros and cons in the planning and practice of the rule of law. The cooperation between the research methods of social science and the traditional research method of international law can reasonably interpret the phenomena of international relations and promote the international rule of law.     

A tax can nudge: The impact of an environmentally motivated bonus/malus fiscal system on transport preferences

Bonus-malus taxes appear to have been successful in encouraging people to change to less polluting travel options in France (e.g. the tax on large and small engined cars). We hypothesize that they have three possible effects on consumer behaviour. The positive effects are: (1) a price effect (the less polluting option is subsidized and the polluting option is taxed); and (2) a social norm effect (the less polluting option is classified as pro-social and the polluting option as antisocial). The negative effect (3) is that they may decrease intrinsic motivation (crowding out). We provide an initial test of this tripartite model using survey data on students given a choice between taking the plane or the train between Toulouse to Paris. The first study shows that imposing a hypothetical bonus-malus tax has both a price effect (relative to a control condition where only the norm justifying the tax is presented) and a norm effect (relative to a control condition in which only the corresponding price difference is presented without mention of the tax). The second study presents a set of choices where the environmental norms and price differences are held constant, but the size of the contribution of the bonus-malus tax to the final price of each option is varied. This study confirms our prediction that a larger bonus-malus subsidy/tax reduces propensity to choose the less polluting option (i.e. the train). As the positive effects outweigh the negative effects in most of the choices studied, we conclude that bonus-malus taxes constitute a promising policy instrument.