公共决策失误的根源探析

剖析公共决策失误,可从决策因素、决策过程和决策体制三个方面入手。决策因素包含决策主体和决策情境,前者构成决策的价值取向,后者则提供决策的事实前提;造成决策失误的主体因素,主要是主体利益与主体价值观;在决策过程中,决策问题的界定出现偏差、决策目标确立不当、决策方案脱离实际、方案选择缺乏科学性等可造成决策失误;从公共决策体制来看,集权决策体制比分权决策体制、个人决策模式特别是个人专断的决策体制比集体决策模式发生决策失误的可能性要大,在分权决策体制和集体决策模式中,因决策程序不当也可造成决策失误。     

现代化发展的失衡与危机--阿根廷"新自由主义"改革的再思考

1989-2001年阿根廷的"新自由主义"改革历程,证明了经济与政治的不均衡发展是导致发展中国家陷入现代化困境的重要因素之一;经济现代化具有天然的不均衡性,国家必须实现政治发展,以政治上的均衡手段,即通过提供更加完整、更加充盈、公正的均衡性公共物品,消除或减轻经济现代化 的不均衡后果,引导经济现代化的正确发展方向.     

Changes in Parenting and Youth Adjustment Across the Military Deployment Cycle

This study examined how changes in at‐home parents' mental health and parenting practices related to changes in their children's adjustment throughout the course of a service members' military deployment. Participants included at‐home parents from 114 National Guard families who were interviewed at four different occasions across the deployment cycle. The results revealed changes across the deployment cycle among the following three indicators: parental warmth, depressive symptoms, and children's externalizing behaviors. Changes in parental warmth were associated with changes in children's adjustment. Overall, these findings indicate that during parental separation, at‐home parents' responses to children have important implications for children's adjustment.     

Deception in Family Therapy: Recognition,Implications, and Intervention

Deception, in its many forms, is present in families and relationships across the globe. The impact of the presence and discovery of family secrets or deceptive acts on the individual, the family unit, and the therapeutic process, particularly in the field of marriage and family therapy, has not been thoroughly studied or discussed. Further, deceptive acts during the therapeutic process may have implications for effective treatment planning. This article defines the various forms of deception and its systemic effects on relationships and on the therapeutic process. Possible interventions to address deception in a family therapeutic setting are proposed.     

夫妻权利与婚姻满意度关系研究——基于2006全国综合调查的数据分析

根据2006年全国综合调查（CGSS2006）的数据,本文探讨了夫妻权利运行的三个要素：权力基础（教育差、年收入差）;权利过程（互诉烦恼、对钱不同意见频率）;权利结果（家务差、家庭事务决定权）对婚姻满意度的具体影响。多元回归分析表明：权利过程是影响婚姻满意度最重要的环节,其中配偶向被访者诉说烦恼和对钱不同意见频率都有显著影响：教育差虽也有一定的负向显著度,但其影响程度较小;夫妻年收入差、家务差和家庭事务决定权并无显著性。     

An approximate dual-self model and paradoxes of choice under risk

We derive a simplified version of the model of Fudenberg and Levine, 2006, Fudenberg and Levine, 2011 and show how this approximate model is useful in explaining choice under risk. We show that in the simple case of three outcomes, the model can generate indifference curves that “fan out” in the Marschak–Machina triangle, and thus can explain the well-known Allais and common ratio paradoxes that models such as prospect theory and regret theory are designed to capture. At the same time, our model is consistent with modern macroeconomic theory and evidence and generates predictions across a much wider set of domains than these models.     

高职院校教师激励管理制度的实证研究

随着我国教育事业的蒸蒸日上,教育的多元化不断发展,发展民办高职院校已成为教育事业发展的必然趋势之一。如何办好民办高职院校,如何管理好民办高职院校,已成为民办高职院校管理者所要解决的核心难题。本文从高职院校教师的激励管理制度入手,根据计量经济学,借助Eviews统计工具,分析研究各种激励手段对高职院校教师激励程度大小的作用,并提出合理化建议。     

Almost the same stories: narrative patterns in EU treaty referendums

ABSTRACT

The article analyses narratives that favoured or opposed European integration in three referendum debates held during the constitutional process of the 2000s: in France and the Netherlands in 2005 (Constitutional Treaty) as well as the first vote in Ireland on the Lisbon Treaty in 2008. In all debates examined, speakers used similar narratives of European integration. While most narrative patterns have transnational character, however, they are also remarkably country-specific. They depend on the specific cultural context and the social positions of the speakers articulating them.     

Leadership’s Role in Process Safety: An Understanding of Behavioral Science Among Managers and Executives Is Needed

ABSTRACT

A recent prevalence of high visibility catastrophic events has garnered increased attention to process safety issues. While the use of Behavior-Based Safety interventions demonstrate a reduction in workplace injuries by targeting employee behavior, we believe that process safety requires a greater focus on the behavior of leaders (e.g., creating and executing strategy). One effective method to begin targeting leader behavior for the improvement of process safety is to teach leaders about the principles of behavior, including ways by which the science may be applied within their own organizational models.     

A Blueprint for Full Collective Flood Risk Estimation: Demonstration for European River Flooding

Floods are a natural hazard evolving in space and time according to meteorological and river basin dynamics, so that a single flood event can affect different regions over the event duration. This physical mechanism introduces spatio‐temporal relationships between flood records and losses at different locations over a given time window that should be taken into account for an effective assessment of the collective flood risk. However, since extreme floods are rare events, the limited number of historical records usually prevents a reliable frequency analysis. To overcome this limit, we move from the analysis of extreme events to the modeling of continuous stream flow records preserving spatio‐temporal correlation structures of the entire process, and making a more efficient use of the information provided by continuous flow records. The approach is based on the dynamic copula framework, which allows for splitting the modeling of spatio‐temporal properties by coupling suitable time series models accounting for temporal dynamics, and multivariate distributions describing spatial dependence. The model is applied to 490 stream flow sequences recorded across 10 of the largest river basins in central and eastern Europe (Danube, Rhine, Elbe, Oder, Waser, Meuse, Rhone, Seine, Loire, and Garonne). Using available proxy data to quantify local flood exposure and vulnerability, we show that the temporal dependence exerts a key role in reproducing interannual persistence, and thus magnitude and frequency of annual proxy flood losses aggregated at a basin‐wide scale, while copulas allow the preservation of the spatial dependence of losses at weekly and annual time scales.