提高女生短跑成绩的教法手段之研究

采用正交实验和教学实践相结合的研究方法,对提高初三女生短跑成绩的教法手段进行了研究;正交实验结果显示,影响女生50米跑成绩的因素其主次顺序为:绝时速度、速度力量、加速能力、速度耐力,最优搭配方案为A2B2C3D1;通过教学实践检验,新的搭配方案明显地提高学生的运动能力.     

A Bayesian nonparametric estimator of a multivariate survival function

Using reinforced processes related to beta-Stacy process and generalized Pólya urn scheme jointly with a structure assumption about dependence, a Bayesian nonparametric prior and a predictive estimator for a multivariate survival function are provided. This estimator can be computed through an easy implementation of a Gibbs sampler algorithm. Moreover consistency of the estimator is studied.     

Economically optimal markovian sampling policies for process monitoring

A variable delay process sampling procedure is considered in a Markov chain structure. The paper extends the basic sampling method given in Arnold (1970). Analytic properties of the process are developed for expected sample size and distribution of the sample size. A primary concern in the paper is the development of an objective function to enhance ability to select optimal sampling policies. The objective function involves cost due to sampling and protection costs for detecting undesirable conditions.     

Characterization of the quantitative-qualitative measure of inaccuracy for discrete generalized probability distributions

A characterization of the quantitative-qualitative measure of inaccuracy depending upon the additivity postulate and the mean value property for discrete generalized probability distribution has been provided.     

A Sequential Rank-Based Nonparametric Adaptive EWMA Control Chart

Nonparametric control chart is useful when the underlying distribution is unknown, or is not likely to be normal. In this article, we provide a sequential rank-based nonparametric adaptive EWMA (NAE) control chart for detecting the persistent shift in the location parameter. This NAE chart is a self-starting scheme and thus can be used to monitor processes at the start-up stages rather than waiting for the accumulation of sufficiently large calibration samples. Moreover, we do not require any prior knowledge of the underlying distribution, and to prespecify any tuning parameter either. A Markov chain model is suggested to calibrate the run-length distribution of NAE, which is shown to have approximate tail probability as a geometric distribution. A simulation study demonstrates that the proposed control chart not only performs robustly for different distributions, but also is efficient in detecting various magnitude of shifts. A real-data example from manufacturing shows that it performs quite well in practical applications.     

Spare Reliability for Capacitated Computer Networks Under Tolerable Error Rate and Latency Considerations

Error rate and transmission time are both critical factors in a computer system. In addition to guarantee the robustness of the computer system under both tolerable error rate and latency, enhancing the system reliability by a routing scheme, named spare reliability, is also a critical task. Virtually, each branch possesses multiple possible capacities. Such a network is termed a capacitated computer network (CCN). Hence, this article develops an efficient algorithm to derive the spare reliability of a CCN, where the spare reliability is the probability that data can be sent through multiple minimal paths considering routing scheme.     

Outlier Detection in Time Series Models Using Local Influence Method

We propose a new procedure for detecting a patch of outliers or influential observations for autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model using local influence analysis. It is shown that the dependency aspects of time series data gives rise to masking or smearing effects when the local influence analysis is performed using current perturbation schemes. We suggest a new perturbation scheme to take into account the dependent structure of time series data, and employ the stepwise local influence method to give a diagnostic procedure. We show that the new perturbation scheme can avoid the smearing effects, and the stepwise technique of local influence can successfully deal with masking effects. Various simulation studies are performed to show the efficiency of proposed methodology and a real example is used for illustrations.     

我国农村医疗保障制度的经济补偿能力分析——基于江苏省调研数据

经济补偿是农村医疗保障制度的基本职能,新型农村合作医疗制度(简称新农合)是我国农村地区的主体医疗保障制度。确保新农合具有持续、稳定的高水平经济补偿能力是提高农村居民卫生服务可及性、减少农村居民"因病致贫、因病返贫"的关键。本文基于江苏省各地新农合相关机构调研数据,全面系统地研究我国农村医疗保障制度的经济补偿能力,宏观剖析了我国农村医疗保障制度的经济补偿水平、经济补偿结构和经济补偿可持续性。研究结果显示:(1)经济欠发达地区的新农合相对经济补偿水平高于经济较发达地区;(2)合理的经济补偿结构是经济欠发达地区新农合具有较强经济补偿能力的关键;(3)相比于经济较发达地区,经济欠发达地区的农村医疗保障制度的经济补偿能力更具有可持续性。