基于组合赋权TOPSIS模型的项目评标方法研究

项目评标对业主选择最为适宜的承包商从而确保工程顺利完成至关重要,其本质是多目标情景下对多方案进行全面、客观的评定与优选。为改善现行评标模型的可靠性与便利性,将TOPSIS模型引入到项目评标决策中;通过深入分析评标指标赋权的特殊意义,提出了Delphi-AHP法和熵权法相集成的主客观组合赋权法,使权重既反映决策者主观偏好,又凸显方案客观差异;进而,构建了基于组合赋权TOPSIS模型的项目评标方法。通过案例研究,表明该方法的可行与高效,其得到的评标结果具有更好的区分度与决策精度,可以为业主决策提供更为科学、客观的依据。     

基一于全局熵值法的区域现代服务业分行业竞争力评价研究——以福建省为例

现代服务业在当今经济社会发展中具有举足轻重的作用,是抢占产业竞争制高点的关键选择,是推动产业转型升级的着力点和着眼点。在建立现代服务业分行业竞争力评价指标体系的基础上,以福建省为例,通过全局熵值法的运用对其现代服务业9个细分行业的竞争力进行了综合评价和比较分析。研究结果表明:福建省现代服务业各行业发展不平衡;行业规模是现代服务业竞争力评价中最重要的影响因素;行业成长能力在现代服务业竞争力评价中的作用尚待提升;现代服务业内部结构有待进一步优化。     

从熵的视角看经济发展方式和生活方式的转变

从熵理论的独特视角看待为什么人类必须进行经济发展方式和生活方式的转变以及如何进行发展方式和生活方式的转变,以期为当前的人类行为提供参照标准和指导思想。指出只有在科学理论的指导下,遵循正确的判别标准和思路,对既有的、必须改弦易辙的生产、分配、交换和消费等经济活动的方式方法进行梳理、纠正、摈弃,从而在现实和未来的负熵社会中建立一条逼近曲线,使传统的活动逐步转到正确的方向上来。     

Comparison between method of moments and entropy regularization algorithm applied to parameter estimation for mixed-Weibull distribution

Mixed-Weibull distribution has been used to model a wide range of failure data sets, and in many practical situations the number of components in a mixture model is unknown. Thus, the parameter estimation of a mixed-Weibull distribution is considered and the important issue of how to determine the number of components is discussed. Two approaches are proposed to solve this problem. One is the method of moments and the other is a regularization type of fuzzy clustering algorithm. Finally, numerical examples and two real data sets are given to illustrate the features of the proposed approaches.     

Estimation using plug-in of the stationary distribution and Shannon entropy of continuous time Markov processes

A natural way to deal with the uncertainty of an ergodic finite state space Markov process is to investigate the entropy of its stationary distribution. When the process is observed, it becomes necessary to estimate this entropy.We estimate both the stationary distribution and its entropy by plug-in of the estimators of the infinitesimal generator. Three situations of observation are discussed: one long trajectory is observed, several independent short trajectories are observed, or the process is observed at discrete times. The good asymptotic behavior of the plug-in estimators is established. We also illustrate the behavior of the estimators through simulation.     

Renyi's entropy for residual lifetime distribution

In the present paper, we introduce and study Renyi's information measure (entropy) for residual lifetime distributions. It is shown that the proposed measure uniquely determines the distribution. We present characterizations for some lifetime models. Further, we define two new classes of life distributions based on this measure. Various properties of these classes are also given.     

Mapping Invasive Species Risks with Stochastic Models: A Cross-Border United States-Canada Application for Sirex noctilio Fabricius

Nonindigenous species have caused significant impacts to North American forests despite past and present international phytosanitary efforts. Though broadly acknowledged, the risks of pest invasions are difficult to quantify as they involve interactions between many factors that operate across a range of spatial and temporal scales: the transmission of invading organisms via various pathways, their spread and establishment in new environments. Our study presents a stochastic simulation approach to quantify these risks and associated uncertainties through time in a unified fashion. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. We simulate new potential entries of S. noctilio as a stochastic process, based on recent volumes of marine shipments of commodities from countries where S. noctilio is established, as well as the broad dynamics of foreign marine imports. The results are then linked with a spatial model that simulates the spread of S. noctilio within the geographical distribution of its hosts (pines) while incorporating existing knowledge about its behavior in North American landscapes. Through replications, this approach yields a spatial representation of S. noctilio risks and uncertainties in a single integrated product. The approach should also be appealing to decisionmakers, since it accounts for projected flows of commodities that may serve as conduits for pest entry. Our 30-year forecasts indicate high establishment probability in Ontario, Quebec, and the northeastern United States, but further southward expansion of S. noctilio is uncertain, ultimately depending on the impact of recent international treatment standards for wood packing materials.     

Confidence intervals,significance values,maximum likelihood estimates,etc. sharpened into Occam’s razors

Abstract

Confidence sets, p values, maximum likelihood estimates, and other results of non-Bayesian statistical methods may be adjusted to favor sampling distributions that are simple compared to others in the parametric family. The adjustments are derived from a prior likelihood function previously used to adjust posterior distributions.     

高效的口令基认证组密钥协商协议

对认证的口令基组密钥协商协议进行安全分析,指出传送数据中的冗余导致协议的不安全。基于Burmester and Desmedt的协议,给出一种改进的协议。该协议的计算复杂度较低,通信轮数较少;该协议不但满足前向安全性、双向认证性,还能有效地抵抗中间人攻击。最后,依赖于Diffie-Hellman(CDH)假设,在随机预言机和理想密码模型下证明了协议的安全性。     

基于策略熵的博弈分析研究

通过建立博弈问题的信息论模型和定义不同类型博弈问题的策略熵,论证了纳什均衡与最大熵之间的内在联系:最大策略熵是纳什均衡的充分必要条件。这表明纳什均衡不仅是利益的均衡同时也是信息均衡的结果。在此基础上,给出了基于熵最大化准则的纳什均衡估计与精炼的方法。