"天书降神"新议--北宋与契丹的文化竞争

宋真宗"天书降神"一事,不但为当时"不语怪力乱神"的儒者反对,亦为今世秉后见之明,崇尚"理性"、"科学"的学人严厉批判.但元儒修撰<宋史>,于此曾表"同情之理解".本文即以此为起点,以考据为基础,试图揭示"天书降神"背后的文化意蕴和实际效果,并提出与亨廷顿"文明冲突"(the clash of civilizations)不同的观念--"文化竞争"(the cultural struggle).     

On evaluating how well a biomarker can predict treatment response with survival data

One of the objectives of personalized medicine is to take treatment decisions based on a biomarker measurement. Therefore, it is often interesting to evaluate how well a biomarker can predict the response to a treatment. To do so, a popular methodology consists of using a regression model and testing for an interaction between treatment assignment and biomarker. However, the existence of an interaction is not sufficient for a biomarker to be predictive. It is only necessary. Hence, the use of the marker‐by‐treatment predictiveness curve has been recommended. In addition to evaluate how well a single continuous biomarker predicts treatment response, it can further help to define an optimal threshold. This curve displays the risk of a binary outcome as a function of the quantiles of the biomarker, for each treatment group. Methods that assume a binary outcome or rely on a proportional hazard model for a time‐to‐event outcome have been proposed to estimate this curve. In this work, we propose some extensions for censored data. They rely on a time‐dependent logistic model, and we propose to estimate this model via inverse probability of censoring weighting. We present simulations results and three applications to prostate cancer, liver cirrhosis, and lung cancer data. They suggest that a large number of events need to be observed to define a threshold with sufficient accuracy for clinical usefulness. They also illustrate that when the treatment effect varies with the time horizon which defines the outcome, then the optimal threshold also depends on this time horizon.     

农村邻避型环境群体性事件引入行政诉讼禁令判决的分析

行政诉讼禁令判决,是指根据行政相对人的申请,人民法院作出的,要求行政机关不得实施某项行政行为的判决,是法院为制止违法行政行为可能造成的潜在性风险的一种预防性的判决方式。我国农村邻避型环境群体性事件中,现有权利救济机制存在环境司法治理模式边缘化、政府环境风险监管责任乏力以及事后救济难以恢复生态环境等缺陷,因此,亟有必要在农村邻避型环境群体性事件中引入行政诉讼禁令判决并进行相应的制度构建,从而达到防范环境风险、树立司法权威和保障农民环境权益的目的。     

新闻发布会与公众舆论方向引导—比较“东方之星”沉船和天津爆炸事件系列新闻发布会的得失

重大突发事件新闻发布会对公众舆论引导起着重要作用."东方之星"沉船和天津爆炸两起事件系列新闻发布会在这方面效果迥异,究其原因,主要在于首场发布会"定调"是否精准,选择发布新闻的主体是否恰当,发布的信息内容是否及时、权威、明确和是否抓住了公众舆论的"痛点".     

话语伦理学的一次文学实践——以胡风事件为例

胡风事件的发生距今已有半个世纪,但回想起来仍令人震惊不已。与过去相比,今日的文学环境显然有很大的改善,但前些日子的韩（寒）白（烨）之争仍让笔者心存不安,中国人的非理性由来已久,由此可见一斑。改革开放以来,世界先进文化的理念不断涌入,哈贝马斯提出的交往理性和话语伦理学的理论便为我们解决这一问题提供了一个很好的参考工具。     

上证180指数效应实证研究

选取上证180指数2002年12月到2005年1月期间五次成份股调整为样本,采用标准化残差方法 克服了事件研究中因聚类问题对统计结果的影响,对指数调整期间的价格和成交量效应进行 实证研究。研究发现,调入和调出股票均对调整信息做出了相应的反应,调入股票存在正的 持久的超额收益,调出股票负的超额收益发生了反转。这种非对称现象可以由投资者关注和 市场分割假说解释     

2010年广州亚运会旅游的战略地位与应对策略

广州亚运会具有体育与事件旅游双重属性。旅游业是深度利用亚运会的主力资源,是提升城市竞争力的动力产业,在亚运会战略实施中占有重要地位,因此应在亚运赛前、赛中与赛后采取相应对策。政府的高度重视与战略规划是实施关键。     

Professionalization through attrition? An event history analysis of mortalities in citizen journalism

ABSTRACT

Despite both scholarly and popular claims that citizen journalism (CJ) represents a growing democratizing force in the journalistic field, recent scholarship in the area has noted the decline of the organizational population of CJ. In this paper, we investigate how individual characteristics of sites and the dynamics of larger organizational population affect a CJ site’s risk of experiencing a mortality. Drawing on the largest sample to date of US-based English-language CJ sites, this study examines the risk of site mortality through an event history framework. Findings indicate that the strongest predictor of a site’s mortality is the age of the site, consistent with organizational population theory’s ‘liability of newness.’ We also find that for-profit and community-based sites have lower rates of site mortality, indicating that adopting legitimate conventions of journalism may serve as a protective buffer to site death. The results offer mixed evidence on whether CJ has become more professionalized via attrition.     

我国公司发行可转换债券的市场反应

使用事件研究法,分析了我国公司发行可转换债券的市场反应。研究表明,我国公司发行可转换债券后市场没有出现显著负的反应,与股权再融资的市场反应明显不同,与国外可转换债券发行的市场反应有差异。政府的奖优政策是可转换债券市场反应特殊性的重要原因。     

和谐社会视野下的政府危机管理体制——由松花江水污染事件引发的思考

以和谐社会建设理论为视野,阐述了政府危机管理的含义,在此基础上审视了我国的立法现状,并分析了我国政府危机管理的缺陷,进而加以合理的制度设计,以提高政府的危机管理能力,确保和谐社会的实现。