城门失火殃及池鱼吗？来自债券违约的分析

近年来,我国债券违约事件频发,对债券市场的平稳运行造成威胁。以2020年11月永煤债券违约为外部冲击,从地区、行业、评级机构与承销商四个层面,基于2020年债券市场日度数据,利用事件研究法与双重差分模型分析了AAA级国有企业债券违约对债券市场影响的溢出效应。研究发现,永煤债券违约事件导致债券一级市场发行规模缩小与发行成本提升,并显著提高了二级债券市场存续债券的回报。从短期市场反应来看,违约事件造成的负面溢出效应(异常回报提升)同时存在于地区、行业、评级机构与承销商层面;从长期影响来看,违约事件导致的存续债券收益率提升的负面冲击仅在地区和行业间存在。异质性分析表明,违约事件对低承付能力地区、低市场竞争程度行业、由内资背景机构评级以及低声誉机构承销的债券负面影响更加显著。进一步检验发现,上述短期负面溢出效应在高等级(AAA)债券组中更加显著,并且评级机构的评价标准并没有受到该违约事件的影响,说明信用评级膨胀问题仍然严重。因此,监管部门应加强对债券市场的引导,从债券市场信息中介(评级机构与承销商等)角度采取措施来防范与降低债券违约风险。     

临床医学学科带头人胜任特征模型建构——量化与质化结合的方法

胜任特征模型研究是人力资源管理理论和实践的前沿问题,然而目前研究多采用单一的方法。本研究首先使用O*NET问卷对494位医院工作人员进行工作分析,然后对20位学科带头人进行行为事件访谈,结合进行专家小组访谈,构建临床医学学科带头人的胜任特征模型。研究发现多方法构建模型具有较好的效果。该职位胜任特征模型包括18项特征,可以分为个性特征,认知技能,管理能力三个理论层次。此外,本研究发现了个性化关怀等三项较新的素质要求。     

Managerial sensemaking of interaction within business relationships: A cultural perspective

In this study, we take the perspective of the individual manager in order to understand the role of culture in managerial sensemaking on interaction within business relationships. Extant literature has found business-to-business relationships and interaction between managers to be an essential part of conducting business. However, it has mostly ignored the role of culture in the process. This has not accounted for the possibility that managers with different cultural backgrounds may differently make sense about business interactions.     

Dynamic network analysis of contact diaries

Analyzing two-mode networks linking actors to events they attend may help to uncover the structure and evolution of social networks. This classic social network insight is particularly valuable in the analysis of data extracted from contact diaries where contact events produce — and at the same time are the product of relations among participants. Contact events may comprise any number of actors meeting at a specific point in time. In this paper we recall the correspondence between two-mode actor–event networks and hypergraphs, and propose relational hyperevent models (RHEM) as a general modeling framework for networks of time-stamped multi-actor events in which the diarist (“ego”) simultaneously meets several of her alters. RHEM can estimate event intensities associated with each possible subset of actors that may jointly participate in events, and test network effects that may be of theoretical or empirical interest. Examples of such effects include preferential attachment, prior shared activity (familiarity), closure, and covariate effects explaining the propensity of actors to co-attend events. Statistical tests of these effects can uncover processes that govern the formation and evolution of informal groups among the diarist’s alters. We illustrate the empirical value of RHEM using data comprising almost 2000 meeting events of former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher with her cabinet ministers, transcribed from contact diaries covering her first term in office (1979–1983).     

汉语位移事件与句法表达

从位移事件的表达方式看,简单表达式主要通过一般位移动词和路径动词来表达,复杂表达式由框架事件和伴随事件构成。从位移事件的类型看,位移事件可以分为自移事件和致移事件两种类型。无生自移一般用复杂表达式,不用简单表达式;有生自移既可用复杂表达式,也可用简单表达式。致移事件一般使用复杂表达式,极少使用简单表达式。     

中国新闻史研究的回顾与展望

本文以 90年来的中国新闻史论著数据统计为依据 ,结合论著的三种类型及其相互间的关系 ,认为中国新闻史的研究有一个大致的周期。根据到目前为止的研究状况 ,认为中国新闻史的研究应进入新的周期 ,新世纪一定时期的研究主攻方向应针对中国新闻通史中的薄弱环节 ,主要致力于专项史、个项史及其他空缺方面的研究。     

基于ECA规则的工作流时间约束分析

本文着重研究了工作流中各活动间的定量时序关系,提出了一种分析工作流中时间约束的方法。该方法针对基于ECA规则的工作流,通过建立及分析工作流的约束图,对工作流中活动间定量时序约束的一致性进行了分析,从而保证了工作流的正常运行。     

Short- and long-term effects of divorce and separation on housing tenure in England and Wales

This paper investigates the effects of marital and non-marital separation on individuals’ housing tenure in England and Wales. We apply competing risks event history models to data from the British Household Panel Survey and the UK Household Longitudinal Study to analyse the risk of a residential move to different tenure types, for single, married, cohabiting, and separated men and women. Separated individuals are more likely to move and experience a tenure change than those who are single or in a relationship. Among separated people, private renting is the most common outcome of a move; however, women are also likely to move to social renting, whereas men tend to move to homeownership. This pattern persists when we account for time since separation and order of move, indicating a potential long-term effect of separation on housing tenure. This long-term effect is especially pertinent to separated women who cannot afford homeownership.     

Restricted mean survival time as a summary measure of time‐to‐event outcome

Many clinical research studies evaluate a time‐to‐event outcome, illustrate survival functions, and conventionally report estimated hazard ratios to express the magnitude of the treatment effect when comparing between groups. However, it may not be straightforward to interpret the hazard ratio clinically and statistically when the proportional hazards assumption is invalid. In some recent papers published in clinical journals, the use of restricted mean survival time (RMST) or τ ‐year mean survival time is discussed as one of the alternative summary measures for the time‐to‐event outcome. The RMST is defined as the expected value of time to event limited to a specific time point corresponding to the area under the survival curve up to the specific time point. This article summarizes the necessary information to conduct statistical analysis using the RMST, including the definition and statistical properties of the RMST, adjusted analysis methods, sample size calculation, information fraction for the RMST difference, and clinical and statistical meaning and interpretation. Additionally, we discuss how to set the specific time point to define the RMST from two main points of view. We also provide developed SAS codes to determine the sample size required to detect an expected RMST difference with appropriate power and reconstruct individual survival data to estimate an RMST reference value from a reported survival curve.     

社会重大突发事件的预警管理模式研究

社会重大突发事件发生的频率和影响范围在不断增大,而我国在此领域的理论准备和实践应用均比较薄弱。在此背景下,文章在提出社会重大事件的概念之后,分析了目前的国内外相关研究和实践应用现状,主张应将预警管理理论应用于系统防范重大社会突发事件领域,构建了重大社会突发事件预警管理模式的功能体系、管理主体与对象以及活动内容和运转模式,为降低社会重大突发事件的发生和不良后果提供了一个新的解决思路。