Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Terrorism Risk

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.     

鲁西晚古生代海相凝缩层沉积特点及地质意义

依据钻井资料、地层资料及相关地质资料，采用沉积学、层序地层学、煤地质学多学科相结合方法，对鲁西地区晚古生代陆表海沉积进行层序划分，在此基础上分析了不同体系域与凝缩层的关系，探讨了凝缩层与成煤作用的耦合特征，结果表明：鲁西陆表海沉积地层可划分为3 个三级层序和24 个小层序，每个三级层序由海侵体系域和高位体系域组成。凝缩层主要分布在海侵体系域顶部，即中期基准面旋回顶部，为1 个短期基准面旋回，表现为微晶灰岩沉积，局部地区是深水泥岩；该区凝缩层与被动大陆边缘盆地浓缩层有着本质区别，可全区对比；凝缩层与煤层形成具有重要的耦合关系，层序1 凝缩层为十四灰和下伏炭质泥岩，层序2 的为十灰和16 煤，层序3 的为三灰和7 煤组合，对应煤层的煤化作用开始时间与灰岩形成时间一致，可以用海侵事件成煤模式来解释。     

提高社会治理水平的根本之策--政府职能体系变迁的视角

政府职能之间的关系不是一成不变的，而是随着行政环境、条件的变化不断进行调整和改变。目前，我国政府职能体系的核心是创造良好发展环境、提供优质公共服务、维护社会公平正义。这是历经革命战争年代、建国初期、文化大革命、改革开放等几次历史性根本转折后的逻辑必然，也是建设社会主义和谐社会、实现全面建成小康社会和中华民族伟大复兴“中国梦”的现实选择。在此背景下，实现社会治理目标，更需要围绕“让发展成果更多更公平惠及全体人民”、“维护社会公平正义”政府职能，注意各项治理措施的“系统性、整体性、协同性”，走“统筹兼顾，突出重点”的社会治理之路。     

题元层级之实质与描写

题元层级被认为是一种有吸引力的理论架构,但有关题元层级的构成及其角色的排序等问题还存在许多不同的观点,这些争议主要源自对题元层级实质的忽视和描写方法的不当。从实质上来说,题元层级是对某特定事件结构所反映的局部性经验事实的概括陈述,故将属于不同事件类型的题元角色组合进一个层级进行排序是缺乏理据的。描写题元层级的有效方式是采用基于事件参与者的相对突显关系表征方法,如Dowty的原型角色理论。要正确理解和应用题元层级必须弄清以下两个问题：第一,题元层级背后所揭示的实质是什么,表达的概括是什么？第二,题元层级对语义角色进行排序的理据是否充分？只有弄清楚了这两个问题,才能在用于解释不同现象、基于不同理据而提出的层级之间进行有意义的选择和比较,否则,只会造成对题元层级理解的混乱和误用。     

Contingent Work Rising: Implications for the Timing of Marriage in Japan

Employment has become increasingly precarious in developed countries, meaning that, for many young adults, jobs provide neither benefits nor security, more work is part time, and employers are increasingly hiring workers from temporary help agencies and contract companies rather than as employees of their own company. These changes in employment relations have profound effects on gender roles and on family transitions of young adults, especially young men and in particular in countries such as Japan, where there are rigid family norms and the male‐breadwinner tradition still prevails. The authors examined the effects of the experience of non‐regular work on the timing of marriage and whether this differs by sex. Using recent life history data from Japan, they found that men working in non‐regular jobs are especially likely to postpone marriage. The implications of the growth of precarious work for changes in work and family institutions in Japan are discussed.     

A temporal correlation function for the association between patient‐reported outcome and clinical endpoints

For clinical trials with multiple endpoints, the primary interest is usually to evaluate the relationship of these endpoints and treatment interventions. Studying the correlation of two clinical trial endpoints can also be of interests. For example, the association between patient‐reported outcome and clinically assessed endpoint could answer important research questions and also generate interesting hypothesis for future research. However, it is not straightforward to quantify such association. In this article, we proposed a multiple event approach to profile such association with a temporal correlation function, visualized by a correlation function plot over time with a confidence band. We developed this approach by extending the existing methodology in recurrent event literature. This approach was shown to be generally unbiased and could be a useful tool for data visualization and inference. We demonstrated the use of this method with data from a real clinical trial. Although this approach was developed to evaluate the association between patient‐reported outcome and adverse events, it can also be used to evaluate the association of any two endpoints that can be translated to time‐to‐event endpoints. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sample size planning for phase II trials based on success probabilities for phase III

In recent years, high failure rates in phase III trials were observed. One of the main reasons is overoptimistic assumptions for the planning of phase III resulting from limited phase II information and/or unawareness of realistic success probabilities. We present an approach for planning a phase II trial in a time‐to‐event setting that considers the whole phase II/III clinical development programme. We derive stopping boundaries after phase II that minimise the number of events under side conditions for the conditional probabilities of correct go/no‐go decision after phase II as well as the conditional success probabilities for phase III. In addition, we give general recommendations for the choice of phase II sample size. Our simulations show that unconditional probabilities of go/no‐go decision as well as the unconditional success probabilities for phase III are influenced by the number of events observed in phase II. However, choosing more than 150 events in phase II seems not necessary as the impact on these probabilities then becomes quite small. We recommend considering aspects like the number of compounds in phase II and the resources available when determining the sample size. The lower the number of compounds and the lower the resources are for phase III, the higher the investment for phase II should be. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

网络群体性事件生成扩展的媒介基础

网络媒介具有开放性、互动性、匿名性、综合性等特征。这些特性能够帮助网民消解"把关人"的控制,重构"议程设置"理论,促成网络公共领域,助推网络群体性事件的生成;在事件的扩展阶段,网络媒介为网络意见领袖的分析引导、网民的人肉搜索、网络事件标签的提炼提供了空间和技术平台。     

信息环境下财务报告变革的再思考

本文试图从系统论,信息论,控制论的角度搭建信息技术环境下财务报告变革的框架,并详细探讨了信息技术环境下会计信息质量特征的变革,提出了信息环境下及时性,可比性,互动性,可理解性应得到更多重视,最后探讨了信息的过载问题,提出了信息过载并不可怕,关键是如何有效信息组织.     

关于完善《或有事项》和《资产负债表日后事项》准则的几点建议--yi桩未决诉讼案件引起的思考

从一桩未决诉讼案会计处理的分歧着手,在阐述和分析分歧各方争论过程和适用准则的基础上,提出完善《企业会计准则第13号—或有事项》中关于未决诉讼类或有事项的判断及规范和《企业会计准则第29号—资产负债表日后事项》中关于调整事项及非调整事项的定义及相关解释的建议。