从中西文化差异看利玛窦等耶稣会士成功的历史偶然

中西文化的核心差异是不同的政治权力结构——欧洲：教俗分权,一教独大;中国：皇权至尊,多教平等。利玛窦在《天主实义》中对天主、君王和生父之间的关系所作的阐述明显与中国儒家传统不同;在后来的实践中教权与皇权的矛盾也日益尖锐。中国统治者禁教乃是势在必行之举。利玛窦等耶稣会士成功地打开中国的大门,是由特定条件形成的一次历史的偶然事件。     

日常经验法:一种人格心理学研究方法

日常经验法是一种在国外的人格心理学研究中普遍使用但在国内少见运用的研究方法.日常经验法是通过研究日常生活中不断发生的事件经验,研究人的思想、情感和行为进程的一种方法.根据对三种主要的日常经验,即样例经验、重建经验和发展中经验的分析,探讨了三种主要的日常经验法(间隔追随法、信号追随法和事件追随法)的界定、操作程序、优点和局限及其在中国文化背景下的运用价值.     

Strengthening the understanding of the relationship between survival designs and test statistics

In the planning of randomized survival trials, the role of follow‐up time of trial participants introduces a level of complexity not encountered in non‐survival trials. Of the two commonly used survival designs, one design fixes the follow‐up time whereas the other allows it to vary. When the follow‐up time is fixed the number of events varies. Conversely, when the number of events is fixed, the follow‐up time varies. These two designs influence test statistics in ways that have not been fully explored resulting in a misunderstanding of the design–test statistic relationship. We use examples from the literature to strengthen the understanding of this relationship. Group sequential trials are briefly discussed. When the number of events is fixed, we demonstrate why a two‐sample risk difference test statistic reduces to a one‐sample test statistic which is nearly equal to the risk ratio test statistic. Some aspects of fixed event designs that need further consideration are also discussed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

老年人出行选择行为影响因素研究

研究老年人出行选择行为影响因素,有利于提高城市交通系统对老龄化社会的适应性。根据北京市居民出行调查数据,利用非集计理论和方法构建的老年人出行选择行为模型,可从源头上分析影响老年人出行选择行为的个人、家庭社会经济背景等因素,并对老年人出行选择行为进行预测。研究结果表明:性别,年龄,是否持有驾照、月票,家庭月收入,家庭交通工具拥有情况等对老年人出行选择行为有显著影响;利用模型估计得到的参数计算事件发生比,可进一步了解各影响因素对老年人出行选择行为的影响程度。     

The Event: An Underexamined Risk Concept

Some of the terms used in risk assessment and management are poorly and even contradictorily defined. One such term is “event,” which arguably describes the most basic of all risk‐related concepts. The author cites two contemporary textbook interpretations of “event” that he contends are incorrect and misleading. He then examines the concept of an event in A. N. Kolmogorov's probability axioms and in several more‐current textbooks. Those concepts are found to be too narrow for risk assessments and inconsistent with the actual usage of “event” by risk analysts. The author goes on to define and advocate linguistic definitions of events (as opposed to mathematical definitions)—definitions constructed from natural language. He argues that they should be recognized for what they are: the de facto primary method of defining events.     

PFI项目特点对项目风险事件和脆弱性的影响

不同特点的项目需要不同的管理手段与之相匹配,这样才能有效的提高项目成功率.PFI是一种公私合营的项目运营方式.它的基本目标在于充分利用私有部门的资源来为公共部门项目提供优良的服务.在目前的文献中,还缺少对于PFI项目特点与项目成功(失败)之间关系的研究.对于PFI项目的特点在项目风险过程中所起的作用不是很清楚.通过分析5个英国PFI项目,本文识别出PFI项目的一些特点:新奇性、长期性、高复杂性、紧联结性、高度战略性、多目标性和严格的法律法规限制.本文提出PFI项目的这些特点在一定程度上与项目组织活动和管理活动相互作用,一方面提高了项目风险事件发生的概率,另一方面能够增加项目脆弱性.这些机制说明拥有这些特点的PFI项目需求很高的项目管理能力.     

An adaptive seamless phase II/III design for oncology trials with subpopulation selection using correlated survival endpoints

Although the statistical methods enabling efficient adaptive seamless designs are increasingly well established, it is important to continue to use the endpoints and specifications that best suit the therapy area and stage of development concerned when conducting such a trial. Approaches exist that allow adaptive designs to continue seamlessly either in a subpopulation of patients or in the whole population on the basis of data obtained from the first stage of a phase II/III design: our proposed design adds extra flexibility by also allowing the trial to continue in all patients but with both the subgroup and the full population as co-primary populations. Further, methodology is presented which controls the Type-I error rate at less than 2.5% when the phase II and III endpoints are different but correlated time-to-event endpoints. The operating characteristics of the design are described along with a discussion of the practical aspects in an oncology setting.     

盖棺难定论：对历史事件政治评价历史的历史评价——以太谷学派黄崖山事件为例

黄崖山事件的评价争论持续了百年,将其评价的历史演变过程揭示出来并加以分析,以使我们加深对这一事件的了解并提高我们的历史判断能力。     

新时期浦东群体性事件及其应对能力分析

经济社会快速发展过程中,群体性事件上升对基层政府应急管理能力提出严峻挑战。当前,浦东政府在应对群体性事件的理念、方式、体制、善后反思等方面还存在一定缺失。近年来,浦东政府不断提高应急管理能力,在树立人本观念,不断整合管理机制、多途径解决群体性事件方面下功夫,并注重学习和体制革新。浦东群体性事件化解的缓解率不断提高,其经验对我国其他地区妥善处置群体性事件具有重要的借鉴意义。