议程设置与美国对拉美援助政策的调整（1958～1960）

议程设置理论与传统决策理论的区别在于，议程设置理论认为政策环境的运作状态不是线性的，即不是一群高层决策者面对出现的问题然后进行决策，而是一些决策者或政策共同体人士早已对一些问题或备选方案青睐，他们抓住某些机会全力向最高层决策者推销自己的方案，使之成为国家政策。以议程设置理论分析1958至1960年间美国对拉丁美洲各国援助政策的调整，可以看到调整的动力来自政策共同体不失时机的大力推动。     

在时间的无涯的荒野里穿梭——张爱玲小说的叙事时间模式分析

叙事时间是叙述者或作者用以表达情感和主题的有力方式．张爱玲在小说中表现了较强的时间意识。通过对其文本呈现出来的叙述时间奥秘的解读．以小说的叙事时间为切入点，努力挖掘小说文本中叙述时间运行模式及其意义．分析时间和虚无及其两者之间的相互关系．对解读张爱玲的小说别具意义。     

Ramifications of Risk Measures in Implementing Quantitative Performance Assessment for the Proposed Radioactive Waste Repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA

As part of its preparation to review a potential license application from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is examining the performance of the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. In this regard, we evaluated postclosure repository performance using Monte Carlo analyses with an NRC-developed system model that has 950 input parameters, of which 330 are sampled to represent system uncertainties. The quantitative compliance criterion for dose was established by NRC to protect inhabitants who might be exposed to any releases from the repository. The NRC criterion limits the peak-of-the-mean dose, which in our analysis is estimated by averaging the potential exposure at any instant in time for all Monte Carlo realizations, and then determining the maximum value of the mean curve within 10000 years, the compliance period. This procedure contrasts in important ways with a more common measure of risk based on the mean of the ensemble of peaks from each Monte Carlo realization. The NRC chose the former (peak-of-the-mean) because it more correctly represents the risk to an exposed individual. Procedures for calculating risk in the expected case of slow repository degradation differ from those for low-probability cases of disruption by external forces such as volcanism. We also explored the possibility of risk dilution (i.e., lower calculated risk) that could result from arbitrarily defining wide probability distributions for certain parameters. Finally, our sensitivity analyses to identify influential parameters used two approaches: (1). the ensemble of doses from each Monte Carlo realization at the time of the peak risk (i.e., peak-of-the-mean) and (2). the ensemble of peak doses calculated from each realization within 10000 years. The latter measure appears to have more discriminatory power than the former for many parameters (based on the greater magnitude of the sensitivity coefficient), but can yield different rankings, especially for parameters that influence the timing of releases.     

Auti-de Sitter时空的事件视界

通过运用零曲面方程，得到了Auti—de Sitter时空事件视界方程，研究了方程的解析解，并利用计算机软件，确定Auti—de Sitter时空事件视界位置，结果表明，与de Sitter时空不同，Auti—de Sitter时空只有黑洞外事件视界和黑洞内事件视界两个事件视界，而没有宇宙事件视界。     

集散系统中基于多线程的多机串行通信实现

给出了集散系统中主从式多机串行通信的实现方案，并以最常用的MCS-51单片机为下位机，PC系统机为上位机，用C Builder语言及单片机汇编语言实现了基于多线程技术和消息响应机制的多机异步串行通信，给出了系统连接和编程的方法及流程．     

A Matrix-Based Approach to Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for Fault Trees1

System unavailabilities for large complex systems such as nuclear power plants are often evaluated through use of fault tree analysis. The system unavailability is obtained from a Boolean representation of a system fault tree. Even after truncation of higher order terms these expressions can be quite large, involving thousands of terms. A general matrix notation is proposed for the representation of Boolean expressions which facilitates uncertainty and sensitivity analysis calculations.     

Societal Transition, Policy Changes and Family Formation: Evidence from Hungary

The paper uses the Hungarian Generations and Gender Survey ‘Turning Points in the Life-course’ (HGGS) to describe recent changes in union formation, onset of childbearing, leaving home and cohabitation. By estimating survivor functions and semi-parametric hazard regression models with time-varying covariates for the timing of first union and first birth, we find a long delay among the youngest cohorts, but also remarkably strong period effects. Reduced employment, increased educational enrolment, and a higher level of uncertainty are important drivers behind these changes. Moreover, our evidence suggests that certain policy changes during the transition have exacerbated this effect, having an asymmetric impact on family formation – depending on the social status of individuals.Aassve, A., Billari, F. C. et Spéder, Zs., 2006. Société en transition, changements de politiques et formation de la famille: le cas de la Hongrie. Revue europé enne de démographie 22: 127–152.     

基于发展核电的伦理思考

核能的开发利用无疑是人类20世纪最伟大的科技发明之一。然而发展核电开发利用核能给人类带来巨大利益的同时,核安全问题也给人类带来巨大风险,核电及其相关联的安全问题倍受世人关注,特别是当今人因已成为核安全事故的主因,核电的安全、可持续发展已不仅仅是技术问题,还涉及一系列的道德伦理问题。要保证核电安全与发展造福人类而不戕害人类,不能犯“技术决定论”的错误,必须辅之以伦理之轨。伦理之轨通过深入核电发展链的各个环节,对核电发展进行伦理价值观的规约、引导、批判,并参与核战略的选择得以保障核电和核开发利用的安全发展。     

简单路径依赖模型及其经济学含义分析

路径依赖理论探讨了在收益递增的前提下资源分配的动态过程 ,认为微小事件和偶发事件对经济过程具有重要影响 ,认为这样的动态过程体现出不可预测性、不灵活性、多态均衡性 ,并具有无效均衡的可能性。这一理论是对传统经济理论的一大革新 ,成为解释新经济现象的工具之一。