A Matrix-Based Approach to Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for Fault Trees1

System unavailabilities for large complex systems such as nuclear power plants are often evaluated through use of fault tree analysis. The system unavailability is obtained from a Boolean representation of a system fault tree. Even after truncation of higher order terms these expressions can be quite large, involving thousands of terms. A general matrix notation is proposed for the representation of Boolean expressions which facilitates uncertainty and sensitivity analysis calculations.     

Societal Transition, Policy Changes and Family Formation: Evidence from Hungary

The paper uses the Hungarian Generations and Gender Survey ‘Turning Points in the Life-course’ (HGGS) to describe recent changes in union formation, onset of childbearing, leaving home and cohabitation. By estimating survivor functions and semi-parametric hazard regression models with time-varying covariates for the timing of first union and first birth, we find a long delay among the youngest cohorts, but also remarkably strong period effects. Reduced employment, increased educational enrolment, and a higher level of uncertainty are important drivers behind these changes. Moreover, our evidence suggests that certain policy changes during the transition have exacerbated this effect, having an asymmetric impact on family formation – depending on the social status of individuals.Aassve, A., Billari, F. C. et Spéder, Zs., 2006. Société en transition, changements de politiques et formation de la famille: le cas de la Hongrie. Revue europé enne de démographie 22: 127–152.     

基于发展核电的伦理思考

核能的开发利用无疑是人类20世纪最伟大的科技发明之一。然而发展核电开发利用核能给人类带来巨大利益的同时,核安全问题也给人类带来巨大风险,核电及其相关联的安全问题倍受世人关注,特别是当今人因已成为核安全事故的主因,核电的安全、可持续发展已不仅仅是技术问题,还涉及一系列的道德伦理问题。要保证核电安全与发展造福人类而不戕害人类,不能犯“技术决定论”的错误,必须辅之以伦理之轨。伦理之轨通过深入核电发展链的各个环节,对核电发展进行伦理价值观的规约、引导、批判,并参与核战略的选择得以保障核电和核开发利用的安全发展。     

简单路径依赖模型及其经济学含义分析

路径依赖理论探讨了在收益递增的前提下资源分配的动态过程 ,认为微小事件和偶发事件对经济过程具有重要影响 ,认为这样的动态过程体现出不可预测性、不灵活性、多态均衡性 ,并具有无效均衡的可能性。这一理论是对传统经济理论的一大革新 ,成为解释新经济现象的工具之一。     

Gender,the Marital Life Course,and Cardiovascular Disease in Late Midlife

Drawing on 5 waves of the Health and Retirement Study, we examine the influence of the marital life course on the prevalence and incidence of cardiovascular disease among 9,434 middle‐aged individuals. Results show that compared to continuously married persons, both men and women with a marital loss have significantly higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease at baseline. Men and women, however, differ in the effects of marital loss on the incidence of cardiovascular disease over the course of the study. Women with a marital loss have a higher risk of cardiovascular disease in late midlife compared to continuously married women, whereas marital loss is not associated with men’s risk of cardiovascular disease. Emotional distress and socioeconomic status account for the higher risk of cardiovascular disease among divorced women.     

中国建筑市场的风险

文章通过问卷调查和案例分析,采用风险重要性指标对中国承包商在中国建筑市场承包项目时,所遇到的诸多风险事件进行重要性评价和排序,并同已有的相关风险调查结果进行比较和分析。Cox-Stuart趋势增长检验方法在本次调查研究中被应用,结果表明重要性指标值所对应的方差随着风险事件重要性的降低有增长趋势,这一趋势说明受调查者对重要性越高的风险事件认识越趋一致。文章还运用CronbachAlpha系数对问卷调查的信度进行了检验。研究结果表明中国承包商目前在中国市场面临的最主要风险包括业主的不规范行为和不规范的建筑市场竞争等。     

After the Assault: Cognitive Trauma Therapy with a Single Event Trauma Survivor

This article explores the specific context of a single event criminal assault, (i.e., a stranger non-sexual assault that occurred during a robbery) and shares the theoretical framework that successfully guided the clinician’s assessment, treatment planning, and interventions. Based on a literature review and employing a case study, this article presents the potential norms of trauma aftermath following a single event non-sexual criminal assault. It provides an overview of those theoretical frameworks that have consistently proven effective with this population; this article shares the rationale for selecting cognitive trauma therapy and illustrates its application to an assault survivor.

营销视角下《旅游法》对旅游经济影响的实证研究

《旅游法》是规范旅游行业的硬性法律文件。它的法律效力来自对其硬性和柔性价值应用的平衡。《旅游法》颁布与实施引起广泛的社会关注。为了弄清《旅游法》对旅游经济的影响,本研究通过对旅游业内人士进行问卷调查、深度访谈,对比《旅游法》实施前后旅游市场出现的变化,发现实施前的《旅游法》是一个营销事件,在法律宣传中嵌入了提前释放旅游消费需求的商业目的。实施后的《旅游法》正式从法律的角度触碰条块分割等旅游痼疾,集中面对执法过程中旅游者、旅游景区、旅游企业的利益诉求和困惑。在旅游时间与旅游价格的权衡中,旅游者的中国式旅游消费正逐渐扩展到《旅游法》执行后迅速增长的自由行、短途旅游、老年旅游和文化旅游的市场空间。旅游产品营销要紧密结合这些新趋势。     

论危机事件中冲突管理的沉默策略及风险

沉默作为非语言传播符号具有依附性和多义性的特点,它使得沉默天然具备规避冲突的特质。危机事件的巨大破坏性使各种冲突在短时间内变得集中而剧烈,作为策略性的沉默在危机事件管理中形成了诸如背离、辩护、强化等有利于冲突规避的机制。但同时,沉默的管理策略因危机事件的特殊性会导致一些风险的存在,诸如相关人物和政府部门之间的神秘性和对事件处置的不确定性,在公众中形成被动的人物和政府部门形象,导致危机事件管理过程中的错误决策。     

A variational model of preference under uncertainty

A familiar example devised by Daniel Ellsberg to highlight the effects of event ambiguity on preferences is transformed to separate aleatory uncertainty (chance) from epistemic uncertainty. The transformation leads to a lottery acts model whose states involve epistemic uncertainty; aleatory uncertainty enters into the statedependent lotteries. The model proposes von Neumann-Morgenstern utility for lotteries, additive subjective probability for states, and the use of across-states standard deviation weighted by a coefficient of aversion to variability to account for departures from Anscombe-Aumann subjective expected utility. Properties of the model are investigated and a partial axiomatization is provided.