The Solidary Relationship’s Consequences for the Ebb and Flow of Activism: Collaborative Evidence from Life-History Interviews and Social Media Event Analysis,

Acting in solidarity with deprived others has become a central topic in social movement research. The explanations of solidarity activism or political altruism are few. However, social movement researchers have claimed that solidarity with out-of-group others is a by-product of in-group interaction. In contrast, we argue that out-group interaction with the deprived other and the formation of a solidary relationship is central to the ebb and flow of solidarity activism. We investigate the Danish refugee solidarity movement and show that the meeting with the deprived other 1) brings about an interaction order which makes an ethical demand on the activists to care for the other both within the bounds of the situations and in the future; 2) enacts and amplifies activists’ values and beliefs because the deprived other becomes an exemplar of the injustice and the need to help the broader group of people in the same fragile situation. We develop and test this theory drawing on 42 life-history interviews and a social media dataset containing a panel of 87,455 activists participating in refugee solidarity groups.     

中小企业税务筹划探析

税收作为国家宏观经济调控的手段,调控作用愈来愈明显,为企业税务筹划提供了施展的空间,尽管中小企业税务筹划的主观愿望是为减轻税负,客观上却促进了中小企业在国家税收杠杆引导下,走优化产业的道路,反过来,对完善税法又起到了促进作用。使中小企业正视税务筹划、区分偷税、漏税以正确选择合法的税务筹划方法。     

Modelling period fertility: Schooling and intervals following a birth in Eastern Africa

We describe a regression-based approach to the modelling of age-, order-, and duration-specific period fertility, using retrospective survey data. The approach produces results that are free of selection biases and can be used to study differential fertility. It is applied to Demographic and Health Survey data for Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe to investigate differential trends in fertility by education. Parity progression fell and the intervals following each birth lengthened between the 1970s and 2000s in all four countries. Fertility fell most among women with secondary education. In contrast to other world regions, postponement of successive births for extended periods accounted for much of the initial drop in fertility in these African countries. However, family size limitation by women with secondary education in Ethiopia and Kenya and longer birth spacing in Zimbabwe also played significant roles. Thus, birth control is being adopted in Eastern Africa in response to diverse changes in fertility preferences.     

当前中国群体性事件的政治学思考——基于亨廷顿政治稳定理论的视角

亨廷顿政治稳定理论认为,现代性孕育着稳定,而现代化却滋生着动乱.为了实现现代化进程中的政治稳定,要建设强大政府,保持政治参与水平与政治制度化的平衡发展.该理论对于理解当前中国群体性事件,解决当前中国发展与稳定问题具有借鉴意义:必须强化执政党的执政力能力建设,树立政治权威,建设有能力推动经济持续较快发展、促进社会公平正义、制衡政治参与需求、化解社会危机的强大政府.同时,要积极推进政治体制改革,使群众政治参与和政治制度化在更高水平上保持相对均衡、和谐.     

Who are the active and central actors in the ‘rising civil society’ in Mexico?

The debate about the rise of civil society in Mexico suggests that the processes of political and economic liberalization are multiple and uneven and, thus, have different and contradictory effects on different social groups. This study takes such arguments into account and examines the nature of collective identities and social networks that are more likely to be mobilized in the rising civil society. Who, with what types of social networks and identities, are the active actors in this rising civil society in Mexico? This study also attempts to identify the central actors who take an active part in multi-sector coalitions. As such a broad coalition often leaves profound effects on politics and society, it is vital to ask which actors are likely to take an important step toward multi-sector coalition making. Using a catalog of 1797 protest campaigns collected from three Mexican newspapers between 1964 and 2000, event frequency analysis is employed to find active actors and social network analysis – blockmodel method and degree centrality measure – is applied to uncover central actors. The analyses reveal that while workers, peasants, or students continue to be very active, the centrality of these actors in contentious networks and coalitions has not increased. New central actors in the rising civil society turn out to be civic associations and NGOs formed around single issues, such as environment, retirement, and human rights. When a multi-sector coalition occurs in contemporary Mexico, NGOs and civic associations are likely to play a crucial role in it.     

基于城市营销的中国城市大型体育赛事选择研究

随着经济全球化飞速发展,大型体育赛事逐渐成为主办城市营销自己的重要载体和工具,但并非每个城市都适宜举办大型体育赛事,主办城市必须选择与自身发展相适宜的大型体育赛事。本文首先从城市选择大型体育赛事进行经济分析,剖析影响城市举办大型体育赛事的赛事因素和城市因素,最后系统研究中国城市选择大型体育赛事的非均衡发展战略,以及从城市群和各类城市两个角度详细分析我国城市大型体育赛事选择思路。     

Control‐based imputation for sensitivity analyses in informative censoring for recurrent event data

In clinical trials, missing data commonly arise through nonadherence to the randomized treatment or to study procedure. For trials in which recurrent event endpoints are of interests, conventional analyses using the proportional intensity model or the count model assume that the data are missing at random, which cannot be tested using the observed data alone. Thus, sensitivity analyses are recommended. We implement the control‐based multiple imputation as sensitivity analyses for the recurrent event data. We model the recurrent event using a piecewise exponential proportional intensity model with frailty and sample the parameters from the posterior distribution. We impute the number of events after dropped out and correct the variance estimation using a bootstrap procedure. We apply the method to an application of sitagliptin study.     

日内知情交易概率测度及事件影响研究

在EKOP模型测度PIN的基础上,通过建立时变交易到达率模型,滚动计算日内知情交易概率,并将PIN测度与事件研究相结合,对比了不同规模公司股票在事件日前后PIN的变化情况。实证结果表明我国股市存在信息泄露情况,尤其是小规模公司股票在公告日前一天知情交易明显增加;前一笔知情交易对当前非知情交易有削弱作用,但对当前知情交易有加强作用,可以进一步解释交易的集簇现象：日内PIN对信息的刻画更加准确,但也发现在公共事件发生后第二天PIN仍会增加,这表明市场上存在信息的学习者,需要对引起PIN增加的原因进行更准确的分析。     

网络商业谣言的成因探析——以湖南隆回金银花事件为例

从湖南隆回金银花事件可以看出网络商业谣言的传播实质上是一个复杂的社会信息传播过程。这一过程包括若干不可或缺的要素,而要素间的制约/影响关系又是与特定具体的社会历史条件联系在一起的。网络商业谣言从生成到传播扩散至一定规模,与社会环境、媒介环境、受众基础有着很大的关系。市场竞争激烈而商业道德缺失的社会环境是网络商业谣言产生的温床。金银花产品自身的鉴定问题增加了事件的模糊性,导致自身易发谣言。受众恐惧心理和科学常识缺乏等特点也在一定程度上助长了谣言的传播。而媒介既是网络商业谣言的传播渠道,也是治理网络商业谣言的有力工具。     

Marriage and separation risks among German cohabiters: Differences between types of cohabiter

We propose a typology of different meanings of cohabitation that combines cohabiters’ intentions to marry with a general attitude toward marriage, using competing risk analyses to examine whether some cohabiters are more prone than others to marry or to separate. Using data (N = 1,258) from four waves of the German Family Panel (PAIRFAM) and a supplementary study (DEMODIFF), we compared eastern and western German cohabiters of the birth cohorts 1971–73 and 1981–83. Western Germans more frequently view cohabitation as a step in the marriage process, whereas eastern Germans more often cohabit as an alternative to marriage. Taking into account marital attitudes reveals that cohabiters without marriage plans differ from those with plans in their relationship careers, and also shows that cohabiters who plan to marry despite holding a less favourable view of marriage are less likely to realize their plans than cohabiters whose intentions and attitudes are more congruent.