“需求与满足”理论视域中的微博动物保护

最近,福建"归真堂事件"成为社会舆论关注的焦点,它的上市申请因为动物保护力量微博舆论的巨大影响而变得扑朔迷离,此事件凸显了微博在动物保护运动中的作用。以"受众需求与满足"理论为切入点,分析得出:微博传播具有低成本、高回报、草根性、公益性和公共空间性质的特点。微博已经成为我国动物保护运动的主要平台之一,它满足了动物保护组织宣传动物保护知识、加大保护动物呼声,召集义工、进行善款募捐,分享、交流、参加公益项目等活动的需要。微博动物保护开启了解决动物保护事件的新路径,有效地促进动物保护事业健康发展。     

论象征手法在《蝇王》中的运用

英国著名作家威廉·戈尔丁在其代表作《蝇王》中,从实物象征、人物象征和事件象征三个方面使用了象征的艺术表现手法。这些象征意义的叠加组合突出了小说的主题,即一旦人类劣根性膨胀,文明与民主就要濒临毁灭。作者通过这部小说表达了对二战后西方社会的认识和对人类命运的忧虑。     

风险社会中的危机处理机制

现代社会的偶然性、矛盾性、不确定性越来越大,风险事件越来越多,风险在深度和广度两个方面日益深刻地影响人类社会。风险固然可怕,但更为可怕的是缺乏应对风险的社会机制。“非典”的蔓延提醒我们:面对各种风险要建立相应的危机处理机制和信息发布机制;促进民间社会的发育,使民间与政府合作共同化解风险;风险的全球化表明,国际合作是风险社会中处理危机事件的不可或缺的重要保证。     

多元背后的“独音”：台湾媒体话语框架之对抗——以“旺中案”为个案研究

通过分析“旺中案”事件,解读台湾媒体话语权之争夺,侧面了解台湾媒体生态与媒介话语竞争现状,试图回答台湾媒体如何运用不同话语表达不同立场、呈现了怎样的媒介话语框架,并期望据此探究台湾媒介多元话语现象背后所体现的社会真实。     

Adjusting for centre heterogeneity in multicentre clinical trials with a time‒to‒event outcome

Conducting a clinical trial at multiple study centres raises the issue of whether and how to adjust for centre heterogeneity in the statistical analysis. In this paper, we address this issue for multicentre clinical trials with a time?to?event outcome. Based on simulations, we show that the current practice of ignoring centre heterogeneity can be seriously misleading, and we illustrate the performances of the frailty modelling approach over competing methods. A special attention is paid to the problem of misspecification of the frailty distribution. The appendix provides sample codes in R and in SAS to perform the analyses in this paper. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

从“苏报案”到“天窗”——浅谈革命舆论与晚清新闻出版之立法

报纸成为20世纪初中国社会主要的媒体资源.因没有对新闻及时立法,清季爆发的“苏报案”等报案,令清政府感到措手不及.晚清的报案不同于康乾之时的文字狱,而报案的发生反过来促进了中国的新闻立法.但清季的新闻立法并没有起到实效,而革命党人巧妙地利用了报纸宣传革命,为自己的政治目的服务,诸如“国风报案”与山西巡抚被免、“大江报案”与国内舆论以及辛亥年间的假新闻,等等.因此,晚清由报纸主导的社会舆论很大程度上引发了革命,更顺应了时代潮流.     

Single‐arm phase II trial design under parametric cure models

The current practice of designing single‐arm phase II survival trials is limited under the exponential model. Trial design under the exponential model may not be appropriate when a portion of patients are cured. There is no literature available for designing single‐arm phase II trials under the parametric cure model. In this paper, a test statistic is proposed, and a sample size formula is derived for designing single‐arm phase II trials under a class of parametric cure models. Extensive simulations showed that the proposed test and sample size formula perform very well under different scenarios. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Confidence interval estimation for number of patient‐years needed to treat

The number of patient‐years needed to treat (N_PYNT), also called the event‐based number needed to treat, to avoid one additional exacerbation has been reported in recently published respiratory trials, but the confidence intervals are not routinely reported. The challenge of constructing confidence intervals for N_PYNT is due to the fact that exacerbation data or count data in general are usually analyzed using Poisson‐based models such as Poisson or negative binomial regression and the rate ratio is the natural metric for between‐treatment comparison, while N_PYNT is based on rate difference, which is not usually calculated for those models. Therefore, the variance estimates from these analysis models are directly related to the rate ratio rather than the rate difference. In this paper, we propose several methods to construct confidence intervals for the N_PYNT, assuming that the event rates are estimated using Poisson or negative binomial regression models. The coverage property of the confidence intervals constructed with these methods is assessed by simulations. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Matrix Theory Formalism for Event Tree Analysis: Application to Nuclear-Risk Analysis

It is pointed out that the familiar analytical device of "event tree", widely used in risk analysis, can be viewed as a transition matrix expressing the likelihood of going from "entry states" to "exit states". This point of view is shown to have numerous interesting conceptual and computational features which promise to make it a very useful addition to the arsenal of tools for risk analysis. The basic idea is explained first in terms of a simple, made-up example. The application of the idea to a very real and complicated problem, nuclear-plant risk assessment, is then outlined.     

Simplified Containment Event Tree Methodology Applied to Peach Bottom SBO-ST Sequences1

The methodology presented here identifies an approach to accurately and economically analyze the effects on risk of various containment performance issues. Although this method facilitates the evaluation of potential containment improvements, it does so while utilizing the significant amount of information accumulated by the U.S. NRC Reactor Risk Reference Program. The use of hindsight and the acceptance of point estimate quantifications of risks allows the proposed methodology to be scrutable and understandable to the community as well as relatively simple and inexpensive to apply. A study of containment venting strategies was used to demonstrate the capabilities of the simplified containment event tree methodology. However, the methodology is flexible enough for a wide range of risk evaluations.