Simplified Containment Event Tree Methodology Applied to Peach Bottom SBO-ST Sequences1

The methodology presented here identifies an approach to accurately and economically analyze the effects on risk of various containment performance issues. Although this method facilitates the evaluation of potential containment improvements, it does so while utilizing the significant amount of information accumulated by the U.S. NRC Reactor Risk Reference Program. The use of hindsight and the acceptance of point estimate quantifications of risks allows the proposed methodology to be scrutable and understandable to the community as well as relatively simple and inexpensive to apply. A study of containment venting strategies was used to demonstrate the capabilities of the simplified containment event tree methodology. However, the methodology is flexible enough for a wide range of risk evaluations.     

Love and Death in Germany: The Marital Biography and Its Effect on Mortality

In this article, we analyze how the marital biography is affecting mortality in Germany today (N = 12,484). We find support for temporal selection into marriage for both genders, but the effect is stronger for men. In addition, protection through marriage results from long‐term accumulation of survival advantages and from the attenuation of higher mortality risks that occur immediately after a transition into or out of a marriage. Moreover, women are more likely to keep survival advantages from previous marriages and to forget about survival disadvantages from divorces and widowhood.     

大学生应对过程的实证分析

为了对应对过程进行考察,本文运用事件记录法和个别访谈法,采取“过程定向”的研究思路,对28名被试进行了6周的追踪研究。结果发现:“人际关系”、“学习与自我发展”是大学生发生频率最高的两类压力源;大学生对“愉快性”、“情/理卷入”和“挫伤性”的感知具有显著的类别效应;大学生对压力事件的初级评估具有显著类别效应;大学生对某类压力事件的应对方式具有多样性。     

对我国上市公司国有股回购行为的研究

本文首先探讨上市公司进行股份回购的动因及其在我国的特殊意义,在此基础上,以冰箱压缩、云天化和申能股份国有股回购为例,对上市公司国有股回购行为进行财务与事件收益分析。在财务分析中发现,股份回购对上市公司的短期业绩产生较大的良好的影响;在事件收益分析中发现,股东从回购当中获得了稳定的超常收益。在文章最后对我国股份回购的现状进行了简单探讨。     

Semiparametric Methods for Clustered Recurrent Event Data

In biomedical studies, the event of interest is often recurrent and within-subject events cannot usually be assumed independent. In addition, individuals within a cluster might not be independent; for example, in multi-center or familial studies, subjects from the same center or family might be correlated. We propose methods of estimating parameters in two semi-parametric proportional rates/means models for clustered recurrent event data. The first model contains a baseline rate function which is common across clusters, while the second model features cluster-specific baseline rates. Dependence structures for patients-within-cluster and events-within-patient are both unspecified. Estimating equations are derived for the regression parameters. For the common baseline model, an estimator of the baseline mean function is proposed. The asymptotic distributions of the model parameters are derived, while finite-sample properties are assessed through a simulation study. Using data from a national organ failure registry, the proposed methods are applied to the analysis of technique failures among Canadian dialysis patients.     

Marginal Regression of Multivariate Event Times Based on Linear Transformation Models

Multivariate event time data are common in medical studies and have received much attention recently. In such data, each study subject may potentially experience several types of events or recurrences of the same type of event, or event times may be clustered. Marginal distributions are specified for the multivariate event times in multiple events and clustered events data, and for the gap times in recurrent events data, using the semiparametric linear transformation models while leaving the dependence structures for related events unspecified. We propose several estimating equations for simultaneous estimation of the regression parameters and the transformation function. It is shown that the resulting regression estimators are asymptotically normal, with variance–covariance matrix that has a closed form and can be consistently estimated by the usual plug-in method. Simulation studies show that the proposed approach is appropriate for practical use. An application to the well-known bladder cancer tumor recurrences data is also given to illustrate the methodology.     

基于脆性熵的群体踩踏事件演变研究

大规模群体踩踏事件的成因和演化过程成为公共危机管理的研究热点之一。文章利用脆性熵来研究系统崩溃成因及演化。根据人流去向和波动情况的比率来表征事件的同一概率、波动概率和对立概率,并根据其值来计算相应的脆性同一熵、脆性波动熵、脆性对立熵,同时利用燕尾突变级数法求出各种熵在脆性联系熵中的权重用以计算系统的脆性联系熵,表明脆性基元内子系统的熵值在外界干扰过程中不断增加,达到临界熵值而崩溃,致使发生大规模群体踩踏事件。通过利用系统脆性熵对上海外滩踩踏事件进行实例分析,可以较清晰地揭示踩踏事件的发生、演化,并能根据脆性熵值进行预防和管理危机事件。     

相对论重离子碰撞中单事件阶乘矩的分析

论述了在相对论重离子碰撞中进行单事件分析的必要性．采用随机级联模型对相对论性核－核碰撞进行ＭｏｎｔｅＣａｒｌｏ模拟,通过对核－核碰撞单事件样本阶乘矩ｌｎＦ２ｓ－ｌｎＭ曲线的分析,得出了单事件的ｌｎＦ２ｓ－ｌｎＭ曲线上翘,且上翘程度随碰撞核基元碰撞数Ａ的增加而加剧的结论,并讨论了这一结果可能作为ＱＧＰ物质形成信号的意义     

A survey of simulation modeling techniques in production planning and control (PPC)

The manufacturing sector as a whole has undergone remarkable changes in terms of scale, complexity and technology over the past decades and this applies across most modern high-technology manufacturing such as electronics, semiconductor, aerospace and automotive industries. In order to remain competitive, manufacturers have to produce high-quality products at low cost, and at the same time retain sufficient flexibility and to meet rapidly changing customer demands. Production planning and control (PPC) is a key role which enables the manufacturer to gain visibility and control over all aspects of manufacturing activities. PPC in itself forms a subject of study, within which simulation techniques have proven themselves to be one of the most practical methodologies available to investigate and evaluate manufacturing issues. In this review paper, we focus on state-of-the art applications of simulation techniques in PPC to demonstrate their applicability to modern manufacturing issues. The review reports on academic publications on simulation applications in manufacturing from 2002 to 2014, incorporating surveys of peer-reviewed literature. The review covers three types of simulation techniques (system dynamic, discrete event simulation and agent-based simulation) and eight PPC issues (facility resource planning, capacity planning, job planning, process planning, scheduling, inventory management, production and process design, purchase and supply management). Literature survey is analysed on the basis of simulation application to PPC problems which can give a guideline for simulation technique selection and also can help for simulation modelling in PPC problemsWould you consider changing the term “modeling” to “modelling” in the title. Please check, and correct if necessary.