Timing, Sequencing, and Quantum of Life Course Events: A Machine Learning Approach

In this paper we discuss and apply machine learning techniques, using ideas from a core research area in the artificial intelligence literature to analyse simultaneously timing, sequencing, and quantum of life course events from a comparative perspective. We outline the need for techniques which allow the adoption of a holistic approach to life course analysis, illustrating the specific case of the transition to adulthood. We briefly introduce machine learning algorithms to build decision trees and rule sets and then apply such algorithms to delineate the key features which distinguish Austrian and Italian pathways to adulthood, using Fertility and Family Survey data. The key role of sequencing and synchronization between events emerges clearly from the analysis. Billari F.C., Fürnkranz J., et Prskawetz A., 2006. Calendrier, séquence et intensitédes événements du cycle de vie : une application des techniques d’apprentissage par machine. Revue Européenne de Démographie, 22: 37–65     

网络渠道应用对中国零售业上市公司绩效的影响

利用事件研究法,基于中国58家零售业上市公司的数据,研究了网络渠道应用对零售商绩效的影响.结果表明:网络渠道的应用使公司在销售额、成本、库存和投资回报等方面的绩效有了显著改善.此外,还发现采用网络渠道的时机对公司绩效提高并没有明显影响,而若有较多的实体店面时,公司绩效有显著改善;公司所在区域的不同对企业毛利润、投资回报率等方面的超额收益有明显影响.     

论话题和主语

言语表达同时包含关于外界事物和关于受话的两个方面,前者表现为语言中的事件结构,后者表现为语言中的对话结构。句子是言语表达的基本单位,在它身上集中体现了这个原理。话题/主语是作为对话题目的所言对象。一般是从对话结构(或语用)方面讨论话题,从事件结构(或语义)方面讨论主语,但对二者的性质及其关系尚缺乏明确认识,这是导致认为主语和话题是两个句法实体并讨论其同异的根本原因。但话题/主语的讨论仍然有重要的方法论意义:它使语言学朴素地面对现实言语表达的本来形式。     

"9·11事件"后美国全球战略的调整及其对中国的影响

“9·11事件”之后 ,美国对其全球战略做了调整 ,保卫美国成为首要任务。但是 ,这并没有改变美国称霸全球的战略目标 .随着美国势力进入中亚 ,“战略包围中俄”的态势基本形成 ,中国的国家安全也将面临新的严峻挑战     

《芙蓉亭院本稿》浅探

《芙蓉亭院本稿》不仅是黎简早期的一部戏剧之作 ,折射出黎简丰富而复杂的情感世界 ,而且支配了黎简后期的诗歌创作 ,从中反映出黎简所具有的深厚的诗学功底、出色的心理刻画能力以及高超的文字驾驭技巧     

Reissner-Nordstrom黑洞视界的熵

将二维球面简并气体模型直接推广到Ｒｅｉｓｓｎｅｒ－Ｎｏｒｄｓｔｒｏｍ黑洞，计算结果表明，黑洞外视界物质的熵等于整个黑洞的熵，且当Ｑ＝０时，能回到Ｓｃｈｗａｒｚｓｃｈｉｌｄ黑洞的情形     

伽达默尔解释学中的辩证法

伽达默尔的哲学解释学在人文科学中具有多方面的影响，不单在于它继承和发展了海德格尔的生存论本体论思想，把理解看作此在的存在形式；而且在于它继承和发展了传统的辩证法思想，把理解看作一个辩证发展的过程。在作者看来，这后一方面更能体现伽达默尔解释学的深刻性和合理性。     

巨灾影响上市企业价值的时间路径及成因分析

文章运用适合于集聚效应的事件研究和逐步回归法,检验并分析了"5.12"大地震对川渝上市公司股价影响的时间路径及各样本股票震后市场表现差异的相关因素。研究结果表明,大地震对样本股票的整体显著影响持续至震后10天左右,这期间行业类型与样本股票的超额收益率显著正向相关;而后地震影响在样本股票间此消彼长,这期间影响超额收益率的显著因素是代表企业运营能力的财务指标——存货周转率;震后25天左右,大地震对样本公司股价的影响消失殆尽。     

Estimating the Probability of Rare Events: Addressing Zero Failure Data

Traditional statistical procedures for estimating the probability of an event result in an estimate of zero when no events are realized. Alternative inferential procedures have been proposed for the situation where zero events have been realized but often these are ad hoc, relying on selecting methods dependent on the data that have been realized. Such data‐dependent inference decisions violate fundamental statistical principles, resulting in estimation procedures whose benefits are difficult to assess. In this article, we propose estimating the probability of an event occurring through minimax inference on the probability that future samples of equal size realize no more events than that in the data on which the inference is based. Although motivated by inference on rare events, the method is not restricted to zero event data and closely approximates the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) for nonzero data. The use of the minimax procedure provides a risk adverse inferential procedure where there are no events realized. A comparison is made with the MLE and regions of the underlying probability are identified where this approach is superior. Moreover, a comparison is made with three standard approaches to supporting inference where no event data are realized, which we argue are unduly pessimistic. We show that for situations of zero events the estimator can be simply approximated with , where n is the number of trials.     

英语人体器官名词动用的转喻认知理据

名词动用现象丰富了语言表现力,使语言表达更加凝练生动,简洁明了,符合语言经济原则;体现了转喻思维过程,使语言表达通俗易懂、便于理解。从概念转喻的视角研究英语人体器官名词动用现象的文体功能和修辞效果,可以更好地揭示转用过程中动态意象由源名词域向目标动词域的有效传递,为进一步探究词类转换及其认知理据提供了新的视角。