Designing the venue logistics management operations for a World Exposition

World Expositions, due to their size and peculiar features, pose a number of logistics challenges. This paper aims at developing a design framework for the venue logistics management (VLM) operations to replenish food products to the event site, through a combination of qualitative and quantitative research approaches. First, an in-depth interview methodology, combined with the outcomes of a literature review, is adopted for defining the key variables for the tactical and operational set-up of the VLM system. Second, a quantitative approach is developed to define the necessary logistics resources. The framework is then applied to the case of Milan 2015 World Exposition. It is the first time that such a design framework for a World Exposition is presented: the originality of this research lies in the proposal of a systematic approach that adds to the experiential practices constituting the current body of knowledge on event logistics.     

Some statistical considerations in the clinical development of cancer immunotherapies

Immuno‐oncology has emerged as an exciting new approach to cancer treatment. Common immunotherapy approaches include cancer vaccine, effector cell therapy, and T‐cell–stimulating antibody. Checkpoint inhibitors such as cytotoxic T lymphocyte–associated antigen 4 and programmed death‐1/L1 antagonists have shown promising results in multiple indications in solid tumors and hematology. However, the mechanisms of action of these novel drugs pose unique statistical challenges in the accurate evaluation of clinical safety and efficacy, including late‐onset toxicity, dose optimization, evaluation of combination agents, pseudoprogression, and delayed and lasting clinical activity. Traditional statistical methods may not be the most accurate or efficient. It is highly desirable to develop the most suitable statistical methodologies and tools to efficiently investigate cancer immunotherapies. In this paper, we summarize these issues and discuss alternative methods to meet the challenges in the clinical development of these novel agents. For safety evaluation and dose‐finding trials, we recommend the use of a time‐to‐event model‐based design to handle late toxicities, a simple 3‐step procedure for dose optimization, and flexible rule‐based or model‐based designs for combination agents. For efficacy evaluation, we discuss alternative endpoints/designs/tests including the time‐specific probability endpoint, the restricted mean survival time, the generalized pairwise comparison method, the immune‐related response criteria, and the weighted log‐rank or weighted Kaplan‐Meier test. The benefits and limitations of these methods are discussed, and some recommendations are provided for applied researchers to implement these methods in clinical practice.     

Sensitivity analyses for partially observed recurrent event data

Recurrent events involve the occurrences of the same type of event repeatedly over time and are commonly encountered in longitudinal studies. Examples include seizures in epileptic studies or occurrence of cancer tumors. In such studies, interest lies in the number of events that occur over a fixed period of time. One considerable challenge in analyzing such data arises when a large proportion of patients discontinues before the end of the study, for example, because of adverse events, leading to partially observed data. In this situation, data are often modeled using a negative binomial distribution with time‐in‐study as offset. Such an analysis assumes that data are missing at random (MAR). As we cannot test the adequacy of MAR, sensitivity analyses that assess the robustness of conclusions across a range of different assumptions need to be performed. Sophisticated sensitivity analyses for continuous data are being frequently performed. However, this is less the case for recurrent event or count data. We will present a flexible approach to perform clinically interpretable sensitivity analyses for recurrent event data. Our approach fits into the framework of reference‐based imputations, where information from reference arms can be borrowed to impute post‐discontinuation data. Different assumptions about the future behavior of dropouts dependent on reasons for dropout and received treatment can be made. The imputation model is based on a flexible model that allows for time‐varying baseline intensities. We assess the performance in a simulation study and provide an illustration with a clinical trial in patients who suffer from bladder cancer. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

上市公司员工持股计划的股东财富效应研究——来自我国证券市场的经验数据

以我国2014年6月-2015年6月宣告员工持股计划的上市公司为样本,检验了上市公司公告员工持股计划对股东财富的影响,对不同股票来源和不同认购股票资金来源员工持股计划的股东财富效应进行了检验.研究发现,上市公司公告员工持股计划后,股东将获得正的累计超额收益率.公司通过定向增发新股方式实施员工持股计划的宣告效应要好于通过二级市场购买赠送给员工的宣告效应,无论股票来源是上述两种方式中的哪一种,其认购股票的资金来源为员工自有资金的宣告效应要好于通过其他资金来源认购员工持股的宣告效应.研究结论为证监会进一步完善相关法律、法规及我国上市公司更好地设计员工持股计划方案提供了一个新的经验.     

Inside the movie roadshow: a critical approach to media events in China

Although face-to-face events starring film professionals have become increasingly popular, they have rarely been studied, especially from the perspective of production. Focusing on the phenomenon of Chinese movie roadshows, this study explores the motivations and techniques used to produce popular media events in the Chinese film industry. Based on expert interviews with 15 media practitioners, the results showed that roadshows are staged as ritualized events that are centered on the performance of a symbolic boundary between “inside” and “outside” the media. Film industry professionals embrace face-to-face communication with audiences and use such events to display sincerity, producing them as a seemingly “unmediated” peek behind the veil of an otherwise hidden world. Moreover, communication on social media is another form of ritualized practice. We conclude that, by thus mediating the “unmediated,” movie roadshows offer an insightful perspective on the machinery of media power in China.     

南宋临安节事经济研究

中国古代旅游只有旅游活动而无旅游产业一直是旅游经济史研究的主流观点。通过对南宋临安相关史料的勾稽，以及对南宋临安开展节事活动的条件、内容和相关管理的探讨，发现南宋临安节事经济活动是在作为旅游目的地的特定空间下，由政府主导展开的，并初步形成了节事旅游活动的上游和下游市场，在旅游供需之间已经零散出现链状结构。     

Missing data sensitivity analysis for recurrent event data using controlled imputation

Statistical analyses of recurrent event data have typically been based on the missing at random assumption. One implication of this is that, if data are collected only when patients are on their randomized treatment, the resulting de jure estimator of treatment effect corresponds to the situation in which the patients adhere to this regime throughout the study. For confirmatory analysis of clinical trials, sensitivity analyses are required to investigate alternative de facto estimands that depart from this assumption. Recent publications have described the use of multiple imputation methods based on pattern mixture models for continuous outcomes, where imputation for the missing data for one treatment arm (e.g. the active arm) is based on the statistical behaviour of outcomes in another arm (e.g. the placebo arm). This has been referred to as controlled imputation or reference‐based imputation. In this paper, we use the negative multinomial distribution to apply this approach to analyses of recurrent events and other similar outcomes. The methods are illustrated by a trial in severe asthma where the primary endpoint was rate of exacerbations and the primary analysis was based on the negative binomial model. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

意象建构与句法发生——语法语义接口研究的“用例事件”模式

语义语法接口研究的"‘用例事件'模式"提出三项假设:句法表征语义、语义体现为意象、句法结构就是事件结构,并在此基础上得出以下的语法语义接口的基本操作:以事件为基础、以意象作驱动。语言运用是一个从事件到用例事件的心智过程。语言运用是从表达主体的心智对内外世界事件的感觉开始,形成最初意识,经过心物随附性的作用,并充分发挥主体的意向性的主导影响,形成反思意识,作为感受;感受以意象的形式出现在大脑里,这就是前语言的用例事件。意象形式的前语言用例事件被固化为概念形式的语言用例事件就是句法的发生。研究意象建构与句法的发生的关系就是研究语法语义是如何接口的。     

论福泽谕吉对巨文岛事件的认识

巨文岛事件发生前,面对英俄在东北亚的争夺,福泽谕吉在对日本所面临的国际局势表现出危机感的同时,将朝鲜喻为夹在日本和外国间之"蒲团"。事后,他认为朝鲜应"联英防俄",将俄国看作是朝鲜、中国以及日本的最大威胁。并且,他还认为朝鲜的灭亡难以避免,表达了为了朝鲜人民可以"祝贺朝鲜之灭亡"的观点。