论法律事实事件

[要]法律事件应称作法律事实事件。作为法律事实的法律事实事件与作为免责事由的不可抗力或意外事件并无实质区别。不可抗力与意外事件的区别，仅在于主体的范围不同：法律事实事件是当事人无法预见，不可克服、不可避免的法律事实。     

浅析全概率公式的应用

归蚋总结全概率公式的理解方法、求解问题的分析方法、解题步骤以及应用此公式时应注意的事项等几点教学体会，旨在使学生能够真正理解和掌握全概率公式，从而更好地解决这类实际问题。     

Binary Event String Analysis: A Compact Numerical Representation of the Event Tree

While the event tree is a useful diagrammatic aid to an appreciation of various event sequence possibilities, it is of a nature that suggests no obvious manner in which the associated probability data may be compiled as computer input. Here, we propose a complementary numerical representation of scenario possibilities which incorporates probability data in a succinct fashion. While its mnemonic properties facilitate the logical development of a system's characteristics, its compactness and unambiguity permit its utilization directly as computer input.     

Giving Memory a Hand: Instructing Children to Gesture Enhances their Event Recall

To investigate the influence of different kinds of gesture on children’s memory, 60 6- to 7-year-old children participated in an event conducted by the experimenters (“visiting the pirate”) and were interviewed to assess memory for the event approximately 2 weeks later. Children were assigned to 1 of 4 conditions; in 3 conditions, gesture was possible (gesture-instructed, gesture-modelled, gesture-allowed) whereas in the fourth condition (gesture-not allowed), children’s hands were constrained. The amount of gesture engaged in was limited but was greatest in the gesture-instructed condition. Children in the gesture-instructed condition, who were asked to gesture during the interview, recalled more than did those in the other conditions. Further, relative to children in the gesture-modelled and gesture-allowed conditions, children in the gesture-instructed condition conveyed significantly more information in gesture that had not also been reported verbally. Although further research is necessary to understand the underlying mechanism, the findings suggest that instructing children to gesture as well as verbally recall an experience has cognitive and communicative benefits. Elizabeth Stevanoni and Karen Salmon are affiliated with the School of Psychology, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia. We thank the children, parents, teachers and principals at the participating schools, St Michaels and Villa Maria Primary Schools, and acknowledge Kay Pegg for help with data collection.     

宣科诉吴学源及《艺术评论》案的事件营销分析

在注意力经济时代,事件营销可以迅速吸引媒体与社会公众的注意力,以一种轻松、自然的方式提升品牌知名度。吴学源和《艺术评论》的名誉侵权事件,为"营销大师"宣科借势与造势,两年时间共计催生了21篇云南省内报纸报道,形成社会热点讨论话题,极大地扩展了宣科本人与《纳西古乐》的知名度。本文对2004年~2005年的报纸内容进行分析,逐步还原了这次事件营销案例,重现其话题构造、议程设置及传播扩散历程,并揭示了事件营销所具有的新闻、广告与公共关系效应。     

什么样的民族政策可以保证国家长治久安(上)

“第二代民族政策”没有新意;“第二代民族政策”观点举证严重失实;本文从理论到实际例证,对“第二代民族政策”提出了质疑.     

A Bivariate Distribution for the Reliability Analysis of Failure Data in Presence of a Forewarning or Primer Event

This article presents a bivariate distribution for analyzing the failure data of mechanical and electrical components in presence of a forewarning or primer event whose occurrence denotes the inception of the failure mechanism that will cause the component failure after an additional random time. The characteristics of the proposed distribution are discussed and several point estimators of parameters are illustrated and compared, in case of complete sampling, via a large Monte Carlo simulation study. Confidence intervals based on asymptotic results are derived, as well as procedures are given for testing the independence between the occurrence time of the forewarning event and the additional time to failure. Numerical applications based on failure data of cable insulation specimens and of two-component parallel systems are illustrated.     

Determining Process Death Based on Censored Activity Data

This article addresses the problem of estimating the time of apparent death in a binary stochastic process. We show that, when only censored data are available, a fitted logistic regression model may estimate the time of death incorrectly. We improve this estimation by utilizing discrete-event simulation to produce simulated complete time series data. The proposed methodology may be applied to situations where time of death cannot be formally determined and has to be estimated based on prolonged inactivity. As an illustration, we use observed monthly activity patterns from 300 real Open Source Software development projects sampled from Sourceforge.net.     

A class of additive transformation models for recurrent gap times

Abstract

The gap time between recurrent events is often of primary interest in many fields such as medical studies, and in this article, we discuss regression analysis of the gap times arising from a general class of additive transformation models. For the problem, we propose two estimation procedures, the modified within-cluster resampling (MWCR) method and the weighted risk-set (WRS) method, and the proposed estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically follow the normal distribution. In particular, the estimators have closed forms and can be easily determined, and the methods have the advantage of leaving the correlation among gap times arbitrary. A simulation study is conducted for assessing the finite sample performance of the presented methods and suggests that they work well in practical situations. Also the methods are applied to a set of real data from a chronic granulomatous disease (CGD) clinical trial.     

Max‐infinitely divisible models and inference for spatial extremes

For many environmental processes, recent studies have shown that the dependence strength is decreasing when quantile levels increase. This implies that the popular max‐stable models are inadequate to capture the rate of joint tail decay, and to estimate joint extremal probabilities beyond observed levels. We here develop a more flexible modeling framework based on the class of max‐infinitely divisible processes, which extend max‐stable processes while retaining dependence properties that are natural for maxima. We propose two parametric constructions for max‐infinitely divisible models, which relax the max‐stability property but remain close to some popular max‐stable models obtained as special cases. The first model considers maxima over a finite, random number of independent observations, while the second model generalizes the spectral representation of max‐stable processes. Inference is performed using a pairwise likelihood. We illustrate the benefits of our new modeling framework on Dutch wind gust maxima calculated over different time units. Results strongly suggest that our proposed models outperform other natural models, such as the Student‐t copula process and its max‐stable limit, even for large block sizes.