论审理医疗纠纷案件对美国法庭“专家证人制度”的借鉴——由中美两个案例比较谈起

近阶段,医疗纠纷冲突凸显,大量的矛盾往往最终汇集到法院。而审理医疗纠纷案件时,法官面临诸多法律困境,尤其是科学证据的采纳问题。分析认为,借鉴美国"专家证人"制度,人民法院应设立"专家辅助人",可以较为有效地解决这些问题。     

Modeling External Risks in Project Management

To ascertain the viability of a project, undertake resource allocation, take part in bidding processes, and other related decisions, modern project management requires forecasting techniques for cost, duration, and performance of a project, not only under normal circumstances, but also under external events that might abruptly change the status quo. We provide a Bayesian framework that provides a global forecast of a project's performance. We aim at predicting the probabilities and impacts of a set of potential scenarios caused by combinations of disruptive events, and using this information to deal with project management issues. To introduce the methodology, we focus on a project's cost, but the ideas equally apply to project duration or performance forecasting. We illustrate our approach with an example based on a real case study involving estimation of the uncertainty in project cost while bidding for a contract.     

合作学习在大学英语教学中的应用

由美国一些教育家倡导的合作学习是以学生为中心的教学方法,适合外语学习的特点,在世界上许多国家推广.将合作学习的方法灵活地应用于大学英语教学,不仅能够提高非英语专业学生的英语听说能力,营造良好的课堂气氛,还能够培养学生的学习自主性和人际交往能力.     

国际基督教工会联合会与早期欧洲一体化

第二次世界大战后 ,作为欧洲压力集团之一的基督教工会通过其国际组织———国际基督教工会联合会 ,以个人活动和参与欧洲机构正式协商机制的方式 ,试图在欧洲早期一体化进程中维护基督教工会和工人的权利及利益。该组织的活动虽然取得了一定成就 ,但从总体上讲 ,其对欧洲经济政治一体化的影响仍然十分有限     

Intuitive Toxicology: Expert and Lay Judgments of Chemical Risks

Human beings have always been intuitive toxicologists, relying on their senses of sight, taste, and smell to detect harmful or unsafe food, water, and air. As we have come to recognize that our senses are not adequate to assess the dangers inherent in exposure to a chemical substance, we have created the sciences of toxicology and risk assessment to perform this function. Yet despite this great effort to overcome the limitations of intuitive toxicology, it has become evident that even our best scientific methods still depend heavily on extrapolations and judgments in order to infer human health risks from animal data. Many observers have acknowledged the inherent subjectivity in the assessment of chemical risks and have indicated a need to examine the subjective or intuitive elements of expert and lay risk judgments. We have begun such an examination by surveying members of the Society of Toxicology and the lay public about basic toxicological concepts, assumptions, and interpretations. Our results demonstrate large differences between toxicologists and laypeople, as well as differences between toxicologists working in industry, academia, and government. In addition, we find that toxicologists are sharply divided in their opinions about the ability to predict a chemical's effect on human health on the basis of animal studies. We argue that these results place the problems of risk communication in a new light. Although the survey identifies misconceptions that experts should clarify for the public, it also suggests that controversies over chemical risks may be fueled as much by limitations of the science of risk assessment and disagreements among experts as by public misconceptions.     

Inside two commercially available statistical expert systems

A decade of research into the applications of artificial intelligence in statistics has finally resulted in the appearance of commercially available statistical expert systems. This paper takes a closer look at two of these systems, which are now commercially available on microcomputers, and shows what knowledge they actually contain and how they operate. It is concluded that although the technology and concepts that drive these systems could still benefit from further improvement, the real challenge lies in defining and constructing the statistical knowledge and strategy that should be incorporated and in presenting the results to the user's full advantage.     

"中国的教研组现象"平议

我国学校教研组从表面看,是借鉴俄国先例建立的,其实是我国特殊历史条件的产物。它不是单纯的教学研究组织,还是学校基层行政组织。它越来越名不副实,对学校教学与教师发展,既有一定积极作用,也有不可忽视的消极影响。     

金融信用与大生集团兴衰关系探略

晚清状元张謇在为大生纱厂招募股本时,由于个人资信度问题致使直接融资受挫,从而认识到信用在资本主义经济运行中的重要性,逐步确立起信用至上的理念。在大生的生产经营活动中,张謇坚决维护金融信用,使得个人和企业的资信度不断上升,成为大生走向繁荣的重要原因。近代金融业的“存迫讨”,导致张謇及大生因信用过度膨胀而陷入全面危机,这也是大生日趋衰落的潜因。     

农村弱势少年儿童教育实践研究的时代意义

探讨农村弱势少年儿童的教育实践问题,具有极其重大的社会学与经济学意义。本文从四个方面论述了农村弱势少年儿童教育实践研究的时代意义:即农村弱势少年儿童教育实践研究与中国人口素质的提高;农村弱势少年儿童教育实践研究与中国综合国力的提高;农村弱势少年儿童教育实践研究与和谐社会;农村弱势少年儿童群体的教育与全面建设小康社会。     

基础产业集团企业在投资决策中的博弈分析

我国基础产业具有明显寡头垄断的行业特点,这些产业中的集团企业在投资决策中的一些行为可以博弈论的观点进行合理解释。本文在分析这些特点的基础上,建立了一个数学模型,对我国基础产业集团企业决策的博弈过程进行了描述,并利用该模型分析了集团企业的投资行为。分析结果表明,该模型较好地反映了我国基础产业集团企业投资决策过程中的一些现象,并使这些现象得到了经济学意义上的合理解释。