Teaching Social Work in an Online Environment

This article discusses the current debate surrounding online instruction (also known as distance) versus in-class social work instruction and reviews the relevant literature associated with those instructional models. The discussion specifically focuses on key issues, including the definition and growth of online education and the Blackboard revolution, and it addresses concerns about the effectiveness of teaching online compared to in-class social work instruction in areas related to students’ learning outcomes and satisfaction. Literature references also suggest that factors such as demographics may be related to outcome differences between distance and traditional students, while others found no significant differences between both student populations and their learning outcomes in particular courses such as research methods courses. Even today, however, the comparisons between online and traditional courses are unsettled, and many questions remain about the appropriateness or usefulness of these models. Therefore, the debate will continue to lead to even larger disagreements between researchers and educators on both sides. The concern about the effectiveness of teaching in an online environment is still the main concern of educational models in general and of social work education in particular. Even deeper concerns are found among educators and scholars about the ethical issues surrounding the entire online education debate.     

Social Stigma and Homelessness: The Limits of Social Change

We examine the issues around the stigmatization of homelessness and how it links to capitalism. Society focuses on the individual as the cause of his or her own state of homelessness, blaming the victim rather than focusing on the larger antecedent social and economic forces, such as unemployment, limited affordable housing, and breakdowns in kinship networks. Social stigma occurs in situations where there is unequal social, economic, and political power and there is an opportunity to label, stereotype, separate (us versus them), lose status, and discriminate. Stigmatization is due, in part, when people feel threatened by another group. Society categorizes people who are homeless as no longer “useful” and/or “functional” members of capitalism, since they do not actively work and support the system. The paper ends on a discussion of the limits of social change in a capitalist society.     

Generalized Linear Failure Rate Distribution

The exponential and Rayleigh are the two most commonly used distributions for analyzing lifetime data. These distributions have several desirable properties and nice physical interpretations. Unfortunately, the exponential distribution only has constant failure rate and the Rayleigh distribution has increasing failure rate. The linear failure rate distribution generalizes both these distributions which may have non increasing hazard function also. This article introduces a new distribution, which generalizes linear failure rate distribution. This distribution generalizes the well-known (1) exponential distribution, (2) linear failure rate distribution, (3) generalized exponential distribution, and (4) generalized Rayleigh distribution. The properties of this distribution are discussed in this article. The maximum likelihood estimates of the unknown parameters are obtained. A real data set is analyzed and it is observed that the present distribution can provide a better fit than some other very well-known distributions.     

Inference from the Exponentiated Weibull Model with Applications to Real Data

In this paper, a novel Bayesian framework is used to derive the posterior density function, predictive density for a single future response, a bivariate future response, and several future responses from the exponentiated Weibull model (EWM). We study three related types of models, the exponentiated exponential, exponentiated Weibull, and beta generalized exponential, which are all utilized to determine the goodness of fit of two real data sets. The statistical analysis indicates that the EWM best fits both data sets. We determine the predictive means, standard deviations, highest predictive density intervals, and the shape characteristics for a single future response. We also consider a new parameterization method to determine the posterior kernel densities for the parameters. The summary results of the parameters are calculated by using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method.     

京津冀人口集聚对能源消费的影响

京津冀作为我国重要的人口集聚区,其区域发展面临严重的能源和环境问题。首先,基于STIRPAT模型构建京津冀面板数据模型,研究1990—2017年京津冀人口密度、经济增长、产业结构和环境规制对能源消费的影响。其次,采用SVAR模型通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解,研究京津冀人口密度变动对能源消费的作用机理和动态影响关系。结果显示,京津冀三地的人口密度、人均实际GDP与能源消费之间存在正向影响关系,其中河北省影响系数最大;北京和天津第三产业占比与能源消费之间存在反向影响关系,河北省第三产业占比对能源消费的影响不显著;北京和天津的环境规制对能源消费影响不显著,河北省环境规制对能源消费具有正向影响;京津冀地区和京冀两地人口密度变动对能源消费的影响在短期呈现负向效应,但是在中长期京津冀地区和三地人口密度变动对能源消费的影响均先上升然后缓慢下降,人口集聚具有集约用能效应。相对于能源消费自身影响而言,京津冀人口密度变动对能源消费的贡献相对较小,其影响效应有限。最后,对京津冀人口流动和能源消费一体化协同发展提出对策建议。     

新疆塔里木河流域人口增长、水资源与沙漠化的关系

新疆塔里木河流域土地沙漠化的直接成因是干流和下游来水量的减少,而来水量的减少与上个流域段耕地面积的增加有密切关系。经过定性定量的分析,进一步发现在塔里木河这样典型的内陆河流域,人口增长对耕地面积(在干旱区流域基本等同于灌溉面积)不仅有密切的关系,而且不同的流域段人口增长对耕地增大的驱动效果也不同,人口增长的驱动对土地退化的影响具有从源流向下游的传递性,下游的土地沙化主要通过源流和上中游人口增长对下游来水量的影响传递产生。因此,治理下游严重的土地退化,控制源流和上中游的人口增长将比通过移民减少下游的人口更为重要。     

转变经济增长方式是全面且深入的改革——“政府主导”是模式还是改革对象

经济增长方式转变是十二五期间中国经济的主题。转变增长方式包含诸多内容,是一个系统工程,须全方位对中国转变经济增长方式作深入分析。转变增长方式包括:从出口导向型经济增长方式转向内需拉动型经济增长方式,从投资拉动型经济增长方式转向消费支撑型经济增长方式,从粗放型经济增长方式转向节能环保型经济增长方式,从政府主导型经济增长方式转向市场经济为基础的增长方式。转变增长方式也有其重点,关键是从政府主导型经济增长方式转向市场经济为基础的增长方式。转变的关键是:政府退出资源配置,宏观调控必须被约束在合理的限度内,国有经济必须回归本意,金融必须作为市场机制而作用,政府作用受法治社会约束等。     

A new regression model for bimodal data and applications in agriculture

We define the odd log-logistic exponential Gaussian regression with two systematic components, which extends the heteroscedastic Gaussian regression and it is suitable for bimodal data quite common in the agriculture area. We estimate the parameters by the method of maximum likelihood. Some simulations indicate that the maximum-likelihood estimators are accurate. The model assumptions are checked through case deletion and quantile residuals. The usefulness of the new regression model is illustrated by means of three real data sets in different areas of agriculture, where the data present bimodality.     

广州经济发展与水环境的关系

本文利用1981—2008年广州水污染数据,从时序维度实证考察广州水污染与经济增长之间的长期均衡关系和双向动态作用特征,并利用EVIEWS分别构造了两个水污染变量与人均GDP的误差修正模型。结果表明：水污染与经济增长之间存在稳定的协整关系,但短期相互作用不明显;经济增长是水污染的格兰杰原因;经济增长对水污染的方差贡献大于水污染对经济增长的方差贡献,但贡献度很低。     

Exploring patterns of personal growth initiative and posttraumatic stress: A latent profile analysis

Objective: This study examined the inconsistent relationship found between personal growth initiative (PGI) and posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) by exploring potential subgroups. In addition, after identifying the subgroups, potential predictors of these subgroups were examined. Participants: Participants were 534 undergraduate students who experienced a potentially traumatic event (PTE). Data collection occurred from March 2013 to December 2014. Methods: Because this was a preliminary study, archival data was used. Participants consisted of students who experienced a PTE within the past three years. Results: Latent profile analysis indicated a five-class model as the best-fitting model. Direct exposure and intentionality of the event were significant predictors of class membership; length of time since event and gender did not predict class membership. Conclusions: The current study provides a potential explanation of the inconsistent results between PGI and PTSS and also highlights the importance of acknowledging subgroups when utilizing PGI after a PTE.