哪些创业失败者更可能卷土重来?———基于松 － 紧文化与制度环境的跨国比较研究

高失败率是创业热潮中创业者必须面对的基本事实.创业失败在为创业者带来大量情绪与财务成本的同时,也提供了独特的学习经验.如何激活创业失败者卷土重来的激情是降低创业社会成本的关键.文章整合组织学习和创业认知理论构建了统一的创业失败学习理论逻辑,结合全球创业观察(Global Entrepreneurship Monitor)、世界银行和松-紧文化3个跨国数据库,考察了不同国家文化与制度环境下不同性别个体的创业失败经历对其创业选择的影响.研究发现:与没有失败经历的个体相比,有创业失败经历的个体更可能选择创业;高宽松度的国家文化、好的制度环境分别强化了这一关系;性别与文化宽松度对这一关系有显著的三重调节效应.即在高宽松度的国家文化下,有创业失败经历的女性创业者再次创业的概率更高.将性别角色差异纳入到创业失败的分析框架中,同时也扩展了创业失败的文化与制度分析.     

服务恢复战略——企业如何修正服务缺陷并从中学习

为了保持长期的竞争优势要求企业不仅能够服务顾客、赢得顾客,更重要的是要留住顾客,而服务恢复战略对留住顾客至关重要。服务恢复战略以受理顾客投诉、发现服务缺陷为起点,通过圆满解决顾客问题提高顾客的满意度和忠诚度,并通过系统学习以不断改进服务质量,最终达到增加企业利润的目的。     

Translating cross-lagged effects into incidence rates and risk ratios: The case of psychosocial safety climate and depression

Longitudinal studies are the gold standard of empirical work and stress research whenever experiments are not plausible. Frequently, scales are used to assess risk factors and their consequences, and cross-lagged effects are estimated to determine possible risks. Methods to translate cross-lagged effects into risk ratios to facilitate risk assessment do not yet exist, which creates a divide between psychological and epidemiological work stress research. The aim of the present paper is to demonstrate how cross-lagged effects can be used to assess the risk ratio of different levels of psychosocial safety climate (PSC) in organisations, an important psychosocial risk for the development of depression. We used available longitudinal evidence from the Australian Workplace Barometer (N?=?1905) to estimate cross-lagged effects of PSC on depression. We applied continuous time modelling to obtain time-scalable cross effects. These were further investigated in a 4-year Monte Carlo simulation, which translated them into 4-year incident rates. Incident rates were determined by relying on clinically relevant 2-year periods of depression. We suggest a critical value of PSC?=?26 (corresponding to ?1.4 SD), which is indicative of more than 100% increased incidents of persistent depressive disorder in 4-year periods compared to average levels of PSC across 4 years.     

考虑质量失误的供应链博弈模型研究

在理性的制造商和供应商组成的二级供应链中,考虑存在产品质量失误的情况下,通过最优化方法选择中间品的质量水平和制造商的检测水平,以实现供应链的利润最大化.并结合实际情况,根据质量内部、外部失误的不同承担方式,讨论了三种质量损失承担方式,得到在整体损失由两者共同承担的情况下,通过制定合理的内、外部损失分配系数,可以使两者选择水平的纳什均衡解与供应链的全局最优解相符,从而实现供应链全局最优和局部最优的一致.所得结论对指导供应链的有效运作有着较好的实际意义和参考价值.     

Discount Rates in Risk Versus Money and Money Versus Money Tradeoffs

We use data from a survey of residents of five Italian cities conducted in late spring 2004 to estimate the discount rates implicit in (1) money versus future risk reductions and (2) money versus money tradeoffs. We find that the mean personal discount rate is 0.3-1.7% in (1) and 8.7% in (2). The latter is lower than the discount rates estimated in comparable situations in many recent studies, greater than market interest rates in Italy at the time, and exhibits modest variation with age and gender. The discount rate implicit in money versus risk tradeoffs is within the range of estimates from studies in the United States and Europe, and does not depend on observable individual characteristics. We use split samples to investigate whether a completely abstract risk reduction - one where the risk reduction delivery has been stripped of all specifics, so that respondents should focus on the risks without being distracted by details - results in WTP and discount figures comparable to those from an identified delivery mechanism (a medical test). We find that while WTP for an immediate risk reduction is 42-73% higher with the abstract risk reduction, the discount rate in the money versus risk tradeoffs and the variance of the error term in the WTP equation are the same across the two variants of the questionnaire.     

TEI@I方法论及其在外汇汇率预测中的应用

基于TE I@I方法论的理论框架,构建了一个基于TE I@I方法论的外汇汇率预测模型。在此模型中,传统的经济计量模型用于处理外汇汇率的主要趋势,人工神经网络技术用于分析外汇汇率的非线性,而文本挖掘和专家系统用于处理外汇市场中的突现性和不稳定性。最后,基于集成的思想,利用支持向量回归技术对上述3个部分进行非线性集成,从而获得一个更为精确的预测结果。通过实证方法验证了基于TE I@I方法论的外汇汇率预测模型的有效性。     

论当前财产保险公司经营面临的困境及改善办法

当前国内财产保险公司经营利润逐年降低，盈利空间变窄，大部分保险公司从盈利逐步陷入亏损的境地，经营风险不断加大。恶性竞争、承保费用提高、理赔难是造成这一局面的主要因素。如何扭亏为盈，摆脱困境，本文将从内部管理和外部监督两方面进行分析，并提出改善办法。     

我国定期存贷款利率期权隐含波动率研究

拓展Jiang和Tian[1]模型获得了看涨看跌期权的无模型隐含波动率的理论表达式.并对理论表达式做了进一步处理,获得满足实际应用需要的计算表达式.根据无套利原理,由当前商业银行不同期限存贷款利率构造出不同执行价的看涨和看跌期权,再运用3次曲线拟合的方法,获得满足实际应用需要的一系列看涨和看跌期权；最后计算得到5年期定...     

非再生性资源的价格路径问题研究

文章内对现有的非再生性资源的最优价格路径问题的文献进行了整合性研究，解释了在短期内非再生性资源的价格路径呈U型原因。并进一步从产权制度的不确定性和供需双方的战略性的博弈行为两个角度对价格路径进行了拓展。在霍特林规则失灵的情况下，资源配置可能与社会最优相偏离，也可能不会。针对市场失灵，提出了相应的政策建议。     

对设备新度系数的讨论

设备新度系数是反映设备更新速度的指标之一，本文主要研究并提出了如何提高设备新度系数以及对设备新度系数进行定量控制的方法．