数据仓库技术与应用

数据仓库是９０年代初提出的概念，是一个作为决策支持系统和联机分析（ＯＬＡＰ）的结构化数据环境，数据仓库对传统数据库的数据进行清理、抽取和转换，并按决策主题的需要进行重新组织，它在发达国家的金融、电讯、证券、保险、零售业也广泛应用，随着我国经济体制的变化、在我国有广泛的应用前景。     

书面"清谈"——谢灵运山水诗之本质论

谢灵运的山水诗是谢氏家族清谈的书面体现,谢氏清谈特点主要体现在:一是把清谈的务虚之风与务实抒怀有机结合,二是在清谈中重视语言的辞彩,注意语言音韵的流畅谐美。在家风濡染下,谢灵运抛弃了纯粹的空谈析理,而是借助于山水形象媚道,从而导致富有理趣、注重辞彩的山水诗的涌现,无心插柳般地完成了中国诗歌史的转关任务。     

丁克家庭的成因及社会功能分析

随着社会的发展和价值观念的变迁,丁克家庭开始在中国的大、中城市出现,并呈逐年上升的趋势。丁克家庭在中国的产生主要是由于生养孩子的成本太高、婚育观念的变迁、传统家庭生育动机的转变、外来文化的影响、社会保障制度的完善等原因造成的。丁克家庭的发展壮大对社会有正、负两方面的功能,但它暂时不会上升为一种社会问题。现阶段我们应探寻一种与传统家庭类型和谐共存的丁克家庭模式。     

Structural Nested Models and Standard Software: A Mathematical Foundation through Partial Likelihood

Abstract.  In observational studies treatment may be adapted to the patient's state during the course of time. These covariates may in turn also react on the treatment under study, and so on. This makes it hard to distinguish between treatment effect and selection bias. Structural nested models aim at estimating treatment effect in such complicated situations, even when treatment may change at any time. We show that structural nested models can often be calculated with standard software, by using standard models to predict treatment as a tool to estimate treatment effect. Robins ( Survival analysis, Volume 6 of Encyclopedia of Biostatistics , John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, 1998) conjectured this, but so far it was unproven. We use a partial likelihood approach to choose the estimators and tests as a subclass of the estimators and tests in Lok (math. ST/0410271 at http://arXiv.org , 2004). We show that this is the class of estimators and tests that can be calculated with standard software. The estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal, and have interesting asymptotic properties.     

Estimation of the Force of Infection from Current Status Data Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models

Based on sero-prevalence data of rubella, mumps in the UK and varicella in Belgium, we show how the force of infection, the age-specific rate at which susceptible individuals contract infection, can be estimated using generalized linear mixed models (McCulloch & Searle, 2001). Modelling the dependency of the force of infection on age by penalized splines, which involve fixed and random effects, allows us to use generalized linear mixed models techniques to estimate both the cumulative probability of being infected before a given age and the force of infection. Moreover, these models permit an automatic selection of the smoothing parameter. The smoothness of the estimated force of infection can be influenced by the number of knots and the degree of the penalized spline used. To determine these, a different number of knots and different degrees are used and the results are compared to establish this sensitivity. Simulations with a different number of knots and polynomial spline bases of different degrees suggest - for estimating the force of infection from serological data - the use of a quadratic penalized spline based on about 10 knots.     

A stochastic approximation algorithm for maximum-likelihood estimation with incomplete data

We propose a new stochastic approximation (SA) algorithm for maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) in the incomplete-data setting. This algorithm is most useful for problems when the EM algorithm is not possible due to an intractable E-step or M-step. Compared to other algorithm that have been proposed for intractable EM problems, such as the MCEM algorithm of Wei and Tanner (1990), our proposed algorithm appears more generally applicable and efficient. The approach we adopt is inspired by the Robbins-Monro (1951) stochastic approximation procedure, and we show that the proposed algorithm can be used to solve some of the long-standing problems in computing an MLE with incomplete data. We prove that in general O(n) simulation steps are required in computing the MLE with the SA algorithm and O(n log n) simulation steps are required in computing the MLE using the MCEM and/or the MCNR algorithm, where n is the sample size of the observations. Examples include computing the MLE in the nonlinear error-in-variable model and nonlinear regression model with random effects.     

A semiparametric method of multiple imputation

In this paper, we describe how to use multiple imputation semiparametrically to obtain estimates of parameters and their standard errors when some individuals have missing data. The methods given require the investigator to know or be able to estimate the process generating the missing data but requires no full distributional form for the data. The method is especially useful for non-standard problems, such as estimating the median when data are missing.     

供应链创新研究述评与展望:内涵、测量与影响机制

供应链创新有助于企业提高运营效率、增加收入、创造价值,越来越得到企业的重视,也被提升为国家战略,因此,对供应链创新的研究文献进行整理与分析,对未来的研究具有重要的理论意义.研究发现:概念界定可以分为技术创新论、组织创新论、管理工具论等三个视角,维度结构以供应链创新的三维模型为主,供应链技术创新是供应链创新的一个重要类别;借鉴有关创新的理论与测量工具,结合供应链的典型特征,或者在组织创新量表的基础上开发了供应链创新的量表,并以主观感知测量为主;从个体、组织与社会三个层面分析了供应链创新的前因与结果.最后提出了管理启示,并对未来研究做出了展望.     

中国人口控制的社会效益

中国实行计划生育以来 ,不仅促进了人口与国民经济的协调发展 ,而且有力地促进了教育事业和医疗卫生事业的发展 ,明显地改善了妇女的家庭地位和社会地位。本文主要从劳动就业、教育、卫生和妇女地位等四个方面分析实行计划生育取得的巨大社会效益     

Family-Enterprise Initiatives as a Response to Socioeconomic and Political Change in Eastern and Central Europe

It is argued that family business enterprises can be an adaptive response to the transformations that recently have characterized Eastern and Central Europe. Family-centered initiatives are important for sustainable socioeconomic development. In this article, a family-enterprise incubator scheme for the stimulation of family and socioeconomic development is discussed. This approach incorporates resources, services, and supports beyond those conventionally offered.