Low dose risk estimation via simultaneous statistical inferences

Summary.  The paper develops and studies simultaneous confidence bounds that are useful for making low dose inferences in quantitative risk analysis. Application is intended for risk assessment studies where human, animal or ecological data are used to set safe low dose levels of a toxic agent, but where study information is limited to high dose levels of the agent. Methods are derived for estimating simultaneous, one-sided, upper confidence limits on risk for end points measured on a continuous scale. From the simultaneous confidence bounds, lower confidence limits on the dose that is associated with a particular risk (often referred to as a bench-mark dose ) are calculated. An important feature of the simultaneous construction is that any inferences that are based on inverting the simultaneous confidence bounds apply automatically to inverse bounds on the bench-mark dose.     

浅谈如何提高大学生英语阅读理解能力兼评《全新版大学英语快速阅读》

阅读理解能力是衡量一个人英语水平的重要因素之一,随着社会的发展和大学英语教学改革的大力推进,我们应当进一步加强对大学生阅读理解能力的培养,扩充他们对词汇量的掌握,并使他们了解相关的文化背景,从而达到提高阅读速度的目的。     

中国货币政策和财政政策相对有效性的实证研究

在我国由计划经济向市场经济的体制转轨过程中,货币政策和财政政策已成为我国宏观经济调节的主要手段,在我国的经济发展中发挥了重要作用。但货币政策和财政政策是各自独立的政策体系,由于作用的方式和条件有较大区别,其效果也有较大不同,文章试图应用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,对改革开放以来我国货币政策和财政政策的效果进行实证比较研究,并得出有关结论,为我国的宏观调控政策提供理论分析和实证检验的依据。     

北魏道士寇谦之的新道教论析

北魏道士寇谦之是新道教的倡行者,是民间道教转化为官方道教的重要人物。寇谦之的著述及《老君音诵诫经》所反映的思想,说明寇谦之秉承早期正一道教诫,新道教以维护张陵教法为特点。寇谦之汲取儒释思想于新科之中,其改革为道教成为国家宗教奠定了基础。     

Marginal and association regression models for longitudinal binary data with drop‐outs: A likelihood‐based approach

Longitudinal data often contain missing observations, and it is in general difficult to justify particular missing data mechanisms, whether random or not, that may be hard to distinguish. The authors describe a likelihood‐based approach to estimating both the mean response and association parameters for longitudinal binary data with drop‐outs. They specify marginal and dependence structures as regression models which link the responses to the covariates. They illustrate their approach using a data set from the Waterloo Smoking Prevention Project They also report the results of simulation studies carried out to assess the performance of their technique under various circumstances.     

Higher education outcomes, graduate employment and university performance indicators

Summary.  Official employment-related performance indicators in UK higher education are based on the population of students responding to the 'First destination supplement' (FDS). This generates potentially biased performance indicators as this population of students is not necessarily representative of the full population of leavers from each institution. University leavers who do not obtain qualifications and those who do not respond to the FDS are not included within the official analysis. We compare an employment-related performance indicator based on those students who responded to the FDS with alternative approaches which address the potential non-random nature of this subgroup of university leavers.     

细胞因子对运动训练的反应

从细胞因子的产生、作用特点及其对运动训练刺激所产生的生物学反应等方面。阐述了细胞因子对运动训练的反应受许多因素的影响，这一过程及其机制十分复杂．随着研究的深入，许多发现势必促使人们对运动损伤及其康复、运动与健康促进等一系列问题产生新的研究兴趣．     

50年代中国政治制度的基本特征及其初步调整

50年代的中国社会主义政治制度有两个基本特征 :一是党对政府的绝对领导 ,二是国家权力的高度集中统一。这套政治制度 ,既具有广泛的民主性和高效性 ,也存在着党政不分、权力过分集中的弊端。针对政治体制运行中存在的一些问题 ,以毛泽东为首的中国共产党人冲破苏联模式的束缚 ,与时俱进 ,勇于探索 ,大胆对中国社会主义制度进行调整和完善 ,取得了许多重大成效 ,也积累了政治体制改革的一些宝贵经验     

雷诺润滑系统中的瞬态响应和稳定性分析

章建立了雷诺润滑系统中的流体瞬态压力方程和镜板的运动方程，分析了该系统的瞬态响应和相对阻尼系数以及特征值，结果表明，雷诺润滑系统不会处于负阻尼运动状态，且系统是稳定的。     

文学翻译的创造性叛逆与读者接受

文学翻译是译者在理解、解释原文基础上的创造性叛逆与读者对译文创造性叛逆的理解和反应的过程。文学翻译活动中的创造性叛逆的程度与可接受性必须以如下标准为依据:符合知识的客观性,符合理解的合理性、解释的普遍有效性,符合原文文本的定向性。