Identifying Systemically Important Banks: A temporal approach for macroprudential policies

Contrary to the general belief, systemic risk does not only regard the risk posed by balance sheet relationships and interdependencies among institutions. It also features a temporal dimension related to the inappropriate responses of financial market participants to changes in risk over time. This paper proposes a method to simultaneously address the cross-sectional and the time dimension in which systemic risk materializes. The method is based on the TOPHITS algorithm. It provides three scores, namely borrowing, lending and time scores: the first two represent the systemic importance of the borrowing and the lending activity associated with each financial institution,while the third represents an empirical Early Warning Signal of the financial crisis. Our findings reveal that the identification of the time score as an indicator for an incoming market distress could be relevant to design macro prudential policies.     

FEPA-金融时间序列自适应组合预测模型

本文报告一种金融时间序列预测的信号分析、信息融合与智能计算组合模型,简称FEPA,由针对金融时间序列（FTS）信号分析的经验模态分解（EMD）、用于数据降维的主成分分析（PCA）和用于非线性建模的人工神经网络（ANN）三部分组成。该模型首先应用滑动窗口截取原始金融时间序列最近期数据集,应用EMD分解算法把数据集分解成不同尺度的本征模态函数（IMF）,然后通过主成分分析将分解后的数据降维,提取最有信息量的特征;然后将这些特征输入到神经网络进行组合预测。本文提出的组合预测模型FEPA是基于分解-提优-合成的信息融合思想,有效提高了预测可靠性。其创新点在于：1）首次给出了EMD算法的结构化表达,提供了今后融合更多信息的算法接口;2）通过多步长预测输出深入研究EMD分解的有效信息结构;3）通过切换到更细时间框架来处理EMD的端点效应,并探索了两级时间框架下的预测效果;4）给出了金融时间序列组合预测模型的一般性架构,具有可升级性和可扩展性。并且通过滑动窗口EMD使得实证更能切近实际。通过在沪深300股指和澳大利亚股指上的实证,结果表明FEPA预测模型在沪深300股指日线和15分钟线上的预测命中率高达78%和82%,在澳大利亚股指日线上也达到了74%的命中率,经比较,明显高于文献中常见的5种模型。     

金融集聚、生产率增长与城乡收入差距的实证分析——基于动态空间面板模型

本文利用中国2003-2013年285个地级及以上城市的统计数据,采用动态空间面板模型实证分析了金融集聚对城市总体生产率增长及其内部城乡收入差距的影响,研究结论表明：金融集聚是促进城市总体生产率增长的重要推动力,同时也是导致城市内部城乡收入差距扩大的关键因素,这主要是因为金融集聚显著推动了城市居民人均收入水平的提高,而对农村居民人均收入水平的提升作用不显著。本文的政策含义在于,在城市金融集聚的扩散阶段还没有到来之前,政府旨在缓解城乡收入差距的金融政策可能会抑制城市总体生产率增长。     

What Helped Nonprofits Weather the Great Recession?

This study examined the effectiveness of several financial strategies for nonprofit organizations in fighting the Great Recession. Using data from human services and community improvement organizations in the state of New Jersey, we tested hypotheses about the relationships between three measures of financial sustainability and various fundraising efforts and financial indicators. We found that (1) except for strong external funding relationships, funding efforts were generally not effective in enhancing financial sustainability during the crisis; (2) higher operating margin and equity ratio improved an organization's ability to generate revenue and maintain expense levels, but higher debt ratio and administrative cost ratio were generally harmful; and (3) revenue diversification might aggravate fiscal stress and cause more expense cuts in a severe crisis. These findings improve our understanding of the mechanics of nonprofit management during times of harsh fiscal conditions and suggest useful ways for nonprofit organizations to navigate future financial crises.     

Financial Knowledge and Behaviors of Chinese Migrant Workers: An International Perspective on a Financially Vulnerable Population

ABSTRACT

Making informed financial decisions is crucial to the wellbeing of Chinese migrant workers. Using interview survey data (N = 329), this study examined financial knowledge and behaviors of migrant workers in China. Results showed that participants demonstrated low levels of financial knowledge (51.4%) and beneficial financial behaviors (51.0%). Multivariate results indicated that a modest proportion of the variance in financial behaviors was explained by financial knowledge, attitudes, and socio-demographic characteristics (e.g., marital status and income). Findings underscore the importance of disseminating culturally-relevant educational interventions to financially at-risk, low-paid migrant workers in China.     

Good personal finances or a strong social capital—on different life conditions of importance for an active life when becoming alone in old age

Becoming alone in old age can be a decisive life event that brings major changes depending on various causes as health status, financial resources, family situation, and available welfare services. This article discusses the situation of older people in Sweden who have transitioned from a two-person to single-person household in recent years and what impact this might have on their everyday lives. Through in-depth interviews with 18 older people, age 67–90, their experiences about life conditions and opportunities were examined. Findings showed large differences between the men and women. They all tried to live as they always had done and they used the same personal life strategies that they always had. But the men could live as before on their own financial merits, while the women needed assistance from children, grandchildren and the welfare system. Transportation options were central and clearly related to both private economy and social services available. Shortcomings in the welfare state's way of caring for the elderly were clearly uncovered. The gap between social policy promises of opportunities for autonomy and independence to live an active life in old age and the everyday reality for older people still seems to be wide.     

武陵山区农村金融生态环境建设问题研究

武陵山区农村在金融生态经济环境、政策环境、法律环境、信用环境和社会中介环境等方面都存在着不同程度的缺陷,开展金融生态环境建设又面临经济环境难以得到根本改善、政府的主导地位作用难以得到真正发挥、相关部门单位难以形成有效合力等难点问题。因此,搞好武陵山区农村的金融生态环境建设工作,应着重从三个方面入手:一是提升农村经济运行质量,增强农村经济的发展力,实现农村经济的可持续发展;二是贯彻落实科学发展观,强化政府的执行力,充分发挥政府在金融生态环境建设中的主导作用;三是明确部门单位职责,建立相应的责任制度,广泛调动社会力量有针对性地开展金融生态环境建设工作。     

基于网络环境下社会保障基金财务管理

笔者从事社会保障财务管理工作,网络经济的发展已逐步深入到社会生活的每个角落,而社会保障工作在中国尚属朝阳事业,如何让两者结合一起,充分发挥网络在财务管理方面的优势作用,是社会保障工作新的方略选择和改革探索的新领域。结合中国当前社会保障工作实践,本文从网络化经济时代的需求分析了中国社会保障体系建设中存在的一些问题,并提出了社会保障财务管理工作的战略规划建议。     

改革开放前我国教育财政体制的演变与特征

建国后,在计划经济体制下,我国教育财政体制模式的选择与演变经历了“统收统支、三级管理”和“条块结合、以块为主”两个阶段,形成了中央集权的国家教育财政体制。这种体制的特征主要有:一是统收统支、高度集中;二是直接管理、年度平衡;三是完全指令、条块分割;四是两条腿走路,多渠道筹资。这种体制既推动了当时教育的发展,又日益显露弊端,这一时期教育财政制度安排的种种尝试,为改革开放后我国教育财政体制改革提供了宝贵的经验。     

"二元制"财务机构设置的理论与实践分析

管理学关于管理职能的理论是财务机构设置的理论基础,在对该理论阐述的基础详细地分析了会计属于企业的服务子系统,而财务属于企业的支持子系统,作为企业服务子系统的会计和作为支持子系统的财务有其各自的职能领域,所以应该在实践中将其有效地分开,即财务机构必须进行二元制的设置,并通过东西方企业实际情况的对比和所进行的社会调查,提出在市场经济环境下,财务与会计机构分设的二元制结构是当前我国大中型企业必然的选择,并且进一步提出了财务部门和会计部门各自的职责权限。