伸展构造背景下倾角资料的构造解释

系统总结了在伸展构造背景下，导致反映构造特征的地层倾角模式复杂化的多种因素。沉积相的不同、岩性变化、井眼状况和测井作业时间等多种因素都可能使地层倾角资料复杂化。进一步指出在拉张盆地中，进行倾角资料的构造解释，必须了解其构造样式的多样性和复杂性，解释存在的多解性。重点解剖了铲式断层在横剖面情况下，对于不同构造位置下的倾角模式。详细分析了一个倾角模式对应多种构造样式的倾角构造解释实例。倾角资料的构造解释应是综合解释，既要综合井筒的相关地质资料，又要综合测井与地质知识，还必须考虑综合地震资料。     

Tests for time series of counts based on the probability-generating function

We propose testing procedures for the hypothesis that a given set of discrete observations may be formulated as a particular time series of counts with a specific conditional law. The new test statistics incorporate the empirical probability-generating function computed from the observations. Special emphasis is given to the popular models of integer autoregression and Poisson autoregression. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistics are studied under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. A Monte Carlo power study on bootstrap versions of the new methods is included as well as real-data examples.     

Price bias and common practice in option pricing

Generally, the semiclosed-form option pricing formula for complex financial models depends on unobservable factors such as stochastic volatility and jump intensity. A popular practice is to use an estimate of these latent factors to compute the option price. However, in many situations this plug-and-play approximation does not yield the appropriate price. This article examines this bias and quantifies its impacts. We decompose the bias into terms that are related to the bias on the unobservable factors and to the precision of their point estimators. The approximated price is found to be highly biased when only the history of the stock price is used to recover the latent states. This bias is corrected when option prices are added to the sample used to recover the states' best estimate. We also show numerically that such a bias is propagated on calibrated parameters, leading to erroneous values. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 8–35; 2020 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

Media Disaster Reporting Effects on Public Risk Perception and Response to Escalating Tornado Warnings: A Natural Experiment

Previous research has evaluated public risk perception and response to a natural hazards in various settings; however, most of these studies were conducted either with a single scenario or after a natural disaster struck. To better understand the dynamic relationships among affect, risk perception, and behavioral intentions related to natural disasters, the current study implements a simulation scenario with escalating weather intensity, and includes a natural experiment allowing comparison of public response before and after a severe tornado event with extensive coverage by the national media. The current study also manipulated the display of warning information, and investigated whether the warning system display format influences public response. Results indicate that (1) affect, risk perception, and behavioral intention escalated as weather conditions deteriorated, (2) responses at previous stages predicted responses at subsequent stages of storm progression, and (3) negative affect predicted risk perception. Moreover, risk perception and behavioral intention were heightened after exposure to the media coverage of an actual tornado disaster. However, the display format manipulation did not influence behavioral responses. The current study provides insight regarding public perception of predisaster warnings and the influence of exposure to media coverage of an actual disaster event.     

Reducing sample size needed for cox-proportional hazards model analysis using more efficient sampling method

Abstract

In general, survival data are time-to-event data, such as time to death, time to appearance of a tumor, or time to recurrence of a disease. Models for survival data have frequently been based on the proportional hazards model, proposed by Cox. The Cox model has intensive application in the field of social, medical, behavioral and public health sciences. In this paper we propose a more efficient sampling method of recruiting subjects for survival analysis. We propose using a Moving Extreme Ranked Set Sampling (MERSS) scheme with ranking based on an easy-to-evaluate baseline auxiliary variable known to be associated with survival time. This paper demonstrates that this approach provides a more powerful testing procedure as well as a more efficient estimate of hazard ratio than that based on simple random sampling (SRS). Theoretical derivation and simulation studies are provided. The Iowa 65+ Rural study data are used to illustrate the methods developed in this paper.     

政府减排目标、产业结构与污染减排

政府是污染减排的重要主体,了解其行为对污染减排的作用对提升污染减排效果及实现中国绿色发展具有重要意义。创造性地将政府减排目标纳入研究框架,构建面板门槛模型,从工业污染排放总量的角度分析政府减排目标、产业结构、经济规模等因素对地方污染减排的影响,并用工业污染物强度进行稳健性检验。结果显示,政府减排目标对污染减排的作用存在阶段性不同:经济发展初级阶段,政府减排目标对污染排放总量的作用方向为正; 经济发展水平较高时,作用方向为负; 两者之间存在适应性调整阶段,作用方向具有不确定性,但总体由正向作用向负向作用转变。产业结构对工业污染排放总量的作用方向因污染物种类而异,经济规模对工业污染排放总量作用方向为正。     

消费者网评使用习惯对网评效应的影响研究---网评奖励效果的中介和调节效应探索*

本文以网购旅游者为调查对象，分析其网评使用习惯及其在网评奖励效果作用下对网络评论效用发挥的影响。通过问卷调查和数据分析发现，网评使用习惯和网评奖励效果都对网评效应具有显著正向影响，但网评使用习惯的影响力大于网评奖励效果。同时，网评奖励效果对网评使用习惯与网评效应间的关系具有显著负向调节效应，它削弱了消费者网评使用习惯对网评效应的影响；但消费者的网评使用习惯不通过网站的网评奖励效果对网评效应发挥作用，网评奖励效果不具有中介作用。可见，在网评使用习惯、网评奖励效果和网评效应三者关系中，网评使用习惯是个独立的影响因素，它并不通过网评奖励效果发挥作用，并且由于网评奖励效果的加入，反而削弱了网评使用习惯对网评效应的影响。研究结论表明，对于网评奖励政策的效果，需要客观辩证地看待，不应一味夸大。     

通货紧缩的经济社会效应分析

通货紧缩作为经济运行中的一种常态现象 ,必然对经济、社会产生多方面影响。其效应表现为 :通过一般物价水平的下降以及对现存市场供求关系的破坏 ,对生产产生促退效应 ,导致失业率上升 ;总体上降低居民的消费能力 ;造成分配不公 ,导致社会财富由债务人向债权人、由国家向公众、由企业向消费者、由低收入者向高收入者的转移。针对通货紧缩的负效应 ,政府要采取措施 ,抑制分配不公 ,适当地向收入较低的普通百姓倾斜 ;企业要抓住机遇 ,尽快清理库存 ,同时狠抓技术创新、质量提高和内部管理 ,为新一轮发展作准备 ;居民要调整“买涨不买落”的传统心态 ,树立消费新观念。     

试析我国房地产投资运作模式及其发展

随着我国房地产市场由卖方市场逐渐过渡到买方市场,房地产投资运作模式由作坊生产式投资模式逐渐向社会化大生产式投资模式椎进。