On the wavelet-based simulation of anomalous diffusion

The field of microrheology is based on experiments involving particle diffusion. Microscopic tracer beads are placed into a non-Newtonian fluid and tracked using high speed video capture and light microscopy. The modelling of the behaviour of these beads is now an active scientific area which demands multiple stochastic and statistical methods. We propose an approximate wavelet-based simulation technique for two classes of continuous time anomalous diffusion models, the fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process and the fractional generalized Langevin equation. The proposed algorithm is an iterative method that provides approximate discretizations that converge quickly and in an appropriate sense to the continuous time target process. As compared to previous works, it covers cases where the natural discretization of the target process does not have closed form in the time domain. Moreover, we propose to minimize the border effect via smoothing.     

A generalization of a Gaussian semiparametric estimator on multivariate long-range dependent processes

In this paper, we propose and study a general class of Gaussian semiparametric estimators (GSE) of the fractional differencing parameter in the context of long-range dependent multivariate time series. We establish large sample properties of the estimator without assuming Gaussianity. The class of models considered here satisfies simple conditions on the spectral density function, restricted to a small neighbourhood of the zero frequency and includes important class of vector autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average processes. We also present a simulation study to assess the finite sample properties of the proposed estimator based on a smoothed version of the GSE which supports its competitiveness.     

Estimation of population size in entropic perspective

Abstract

Nonparametric estimation of population size is a long standing and difficult problem. It is difficult because, particularly from a likelihood perspective, the underlying distribution could vary greatly and many small probability events may not be observed in a sample. However if approached from an entropic standpoint, certain trends can be exploited. This article proposes several estimators based on an entropic representation of population size, and establishes their consistency. Simulation results of the proposed estimators are also reported in comparison with a well-known estimator, and the advantages are noted. Two examples with real data are also included.     

Assessing the impact of measurement error in modeling change in the absence of auxiliary data

Measurement error is well known to cause bias in estimated regression coefficients and a loss of power for detecting associations. Methods commonly used to correct for bias often require auxiliary data. We develop a solution for investigating associations between the change in an imprecisely measured outcome and precisely measured predictors, adjusting for the baseline value of the outcome when auxiliary data are not available. We require the specification of ranges for the reliability or the measurement error variance. The solution allows one to investigate the associations for change and to assess the impact of the measurement error.     

Percentage points of LRC for testing equality of covariance matrices under intraclass correlation structure

The exact null distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic for testing equality of covariance matrices of q compound symmetric Gaussian models (bivariate or trivariate) has been obtained and percentage points for q ? 5 have been computed. The inverse Mellin transform and calculus of residues have been used to derive these results.     

Simulation-based estimation of threshold moving average models with contemporaneous shock asymmetry and an application to Turkish business cycles

Persistence of shocks to economic time series may differ depending on the sign of the shock or on a threshold value. Threshold moving average (TMA) models, by explicitly taking into account threshold behavior, can help discriminate whether there exists persistence asymmetry. This article considers TMA models in which both contemporaneous and lagged asymmetric effects are both present and examines the properties of simulation-based efficient method of moments estimation using Monte Carlo simulation experiments. The model is applied to analyze the persistence properties of shocks to growth rates of gross domestic product and industrial production index in Turkish economy.     

Lower Risk Bounds and Properties of Confidence Sets for Ill‐Posed Estimation Problems with Applications to Spectral Density and Persistence Estimation,Unit Roots,and Estimation of Long Memory Parameters

Important estimation problems in econometrics like estimating the value of a spectral density at frequency zero, which appears in the econometrics literature in the guises of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent variance estimation and long run variance estimation, are shown to be “ill‐posed” estimation problems. A prototypical result obtained in the paper is that the minimax risk for estimating the value of the spectral density at frequency zero is infinite regardless of sample size, and that confidence sets are close to being uninformative. In this result the maximum risk is over commonly used specifications for the set of feasible data generating processes. The consequences for inference on unit roots and cointegration are discussed. Similar results for persistence estimation and estimation of the long memory parameter are given. All these results are obtained as special cases of a more general theory developed for abstract estimation problems, which readily also allows for the treatment of other ill‐posed estimation problems such as, e.g., nonparametric regression or density estimation.     

ESTIMATORS BASED ON KENDALL'S TAU IN MULTIVARIATE COPULA MODELS

The estimation of a real‐valued dependence parameter in a multivariate copula model is considered. Rank‐based procedures are often used in this context to guard against possible misspecification of the marginal distributions. A standard approach consists of maximizing the pseudo‐likelihood. Here, we investigate alternative estimators based on the inversion of two multivariate extensions of Kendall's tau developed by Kendall and Babington Smith, and by Joe. The former, which amounts to the average value of tau over all pairs of variables, is often referred to as the coefficient of agreement. Existing results concerning the finite‐ and large‐sample properties of this coefficient are summarized, and new, parallel findings are provided for the multivariate version of tau due to Joe, along with illustrations. The performance of the estimators resulting from the inversion of these two versions of Kendall's tau is compared in the context of copula models through simulations.     

The local fractional bootstrap

We introduce a bootstrap procedure for high‐frequency statistics of Brownian semistationary processes. More specifically, we focus on a hypothesis test on the roughness of sample paths of Brownian semistationary processes, which uses an estimator based on a ratio of realized power variations. Our new resampling method, the local fractional bootstrap, relies on simulating an auxiliary fractional Brownian motion that mimics the fine properties of high‐frequency differences of the Brownian semistationary process under the null hypothesis. We prove the first‐order validity of the bootstrap method, and in simulations, we observe that the bootstrap‐based hypothesis test provides considerable finite‐sample improvements over an existing test that is based on a central limit theorem. This is important when studying the roughness properties of time series data. We illustrate this by applying the bootstrap method to two empirical data sets: We assess the roughness of a time series of high‐frequency asset prices and we test the validity of Kolmogorov's scaling law in atmospheric turbulence data.