Consistent Testing of Cointegrating Relationships

In this paper we investigate methods for testing the existence of a cointegration relationship among the components of a nonstationary fractionally integrated (NFI) vector time series. Our framework generalizes previous studies restricted to unit root integrated processes and permits simultaneous analysis of spurious and cointegrated NFI vectors. We propose a modified F‐statistic, based on a particular studentization, which converges weakly under both hypotheses, despite the fact that OLS estimates are only consistent under cointegration. This statistic leads to a Wald‐type test of cointegration when combined with a narrow band GLS‐type estimate. Our semiparametric methodology allows consistent testing of the spurious regression hypothesis against the alternative of fractional cointegration without prior knowledge on the memory of the original series, their short run properties, the cointegrating vector, or the degree of cointegration. This semiparametric aspect of the modelization does not lead to an asymptotic loss of power, permitting the Wald statistic to diverge faster under the alternative of cointegration than when testing for a hypothesized cointegration vector. In our simulations we show that the method has comparable power to customary procedures under the unit root cointegration setup, and maintains good properties in a general framework where other methods may fail. We illustrate our method testing the cointegration hypothesis of nominal GNP and simple‐sum (M1, M2, M3) monetary aggregates.     

Dialogue and creativity: The generative dialogical perspective in therapy

The generative perspective in therapy understands relations and dialogue as a generative social space where participants can promote innovative resources and possibilities for themselves, and their relations and circumstances, along with new social ecologies. It focuses on the creative dimensions of human relationality. This epistemological and clinical perspective has a heuristic value that allows us to discern and work with micro dialogues—micro processes of creative, generative dialogues—in the ongoing dialogue, mindful of the opportunities for creativity and innovation they provide. The generative perspective promotes creative processes and transformations to help clients build possible and viable futures when faced with problems, conflicts and challenges. It involves the dialogical and relational co-creation of resources and possibilities, and actions for implementation. The perspective is illustrated with a therapy process involving a 3-year follow-up. The paper includes a section where differences and similarities between dialogical perspectives are presented.