A class of weighted dependence measures for bivariate failure time data

This paper considers a class of summary measures of the dependence between a pair of failure time variables over a finite follow-up region. The class consists of measures that are weighted averages of local dependence measures, and includes the cross-ratio-measure and finite region version of Kendall's τ; recently proposed by the authors. Two new special cases are identified that can avoid the need to estimate the bivariate survivor function and that admit explicit variance estimators. Nonparametric estimators of such dependence measures are proposed and are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal with variances that can be consistently estimated. Properties of selected estimators are evaluated in a simulation study, and the method is illustrated through an analysis of Australian Twin Study data.     

晚明科场风变与士人科举心态的演变

明代科举体制的相对完善,并未从根本上解决科举竞争压力、内外廉考官权力的不对等与试文的程式化等内在弊端。随着晚明科举流通机制的日渐壅滞,这些弊端也日渐显露,导致了舞弊、权力寻租及揣摩等科场风变的泛生。科举取士公正与公平性的削弱,使基层士人之科举生存环境渐趋恶化,并促动了士人科举心态由"中和恬退"向"燥竞"与"游离"的转化。     

试论因果连词"因此"的产生时代和原因

本文在详细考察有关语料的基础上,对因果连词“因此”的产生时代和产生原因有所结论。它产生的时代是南北朝,产生的原因与其所在的句法结构、语义、句法功能等有密切关系。     

A Framework for Analyzing the Economic Tradeoffs Between Urban Commerce and Security Against Terrorism

This article presents a framework for economic consequence analysis of terrorism countermeasures. It specifies major categories of direct and indirect costs, benefits, spillover effects, and transfer payments that must be estimated in a comprehensive assessment. It develops a spreadsheet tool for data collection, storage, and refinement, as well as estimation of the various components of the necessary economic accounts. It also illustrates the usefulness of the framework in the first assessment of the tradeoffs between enhanced security and changes in commercial activity in an urban area, with explicit attention to the role of spillover effects. The article also contributes a practical user interface to the model for emergency managers.     

浅论近代青海女性社会地位变迁及其原因

近代是青海女性社会地位发生变迁的时期,本文从女性形体观的转变、女性教育等方面,论述了近代青海女性社会地位的变迁及其原因。     

民国的风俗变革与变革风俗

民国时期是时代大发展、社会大变革的时期 ,风俗的演进也进入到转型的阶段。风俗的全面变革促使了一系列变革风俗的产生。文章论述了当时风俗文化演进的三种趋势———对人的尊重、对迷信的涤荡以及政治因素的渗入 ,是民国风俗步入现代化进程的显著标志     

强化通识教育是提高西部民族高等教育质量的必由之路

文章就通识教育的提出、通识教育与西部民族高等教育质量提高的关系,以及如何实施通识教育提出了自己的看法。     

试论民族地区普通中学多媒体课件制作及管理

运用现代教育技术提高教学效率是民族地区普通中学发展的必由之路。只有正确认识民族地区普通中学教育技术应用的背景,加强对此类教学资源的管理,才能使之更好服务于教学,提高民族地区教学实践活动的效率。     

怒俅殖边:近代云南一次意义深远的边疆开发

民国初期 ,云南地方政府在滇西北怒江少数民族地区的设治经营 ,是云南边疆民族地区发展历史上的一个重大事件 ,它对怒江地区的社会发展和各民族的进步产生了极其重大而深远的影响。本文阐述了“怒俅殖边”这一历史进程 ,认为它使怒江地区的民族关系得到明显的调整与改善 ;使怒江经济社会发展进入一个新时期 ;遏制了英国侵略势头 ,对巩固滇西北边防产生了重要和深远的影响     

Collective versus Individual Effects in Survival Analysis of Multiple Failures

In survival analysis, we sometimes encounter data with multiple censored outcomes. Under certain scenarios, partial or even all covariates have ‘similar’ relative risks on the multiple outcomes in the Cox regression analysis. The similarity in covariate effects can be quantified using the proportionality of regression coefficients. Identifying the proportionality structure, or equivalently whether covariates have individual or collective effects, may have important scientific implications. In addition, it can lead to a smaller set of unknown parameters, which in turn results in more accurate estimation. In this article, we develop a novel approach for identifying the proportionality structure. Simulation shows the satisfactory performance of the proposed approach and its advantage over estimation under no assumed structure. We analyse three datasets to demonstrate the practical application of the proposed approach.