Local dependence estimation using semiparametric archimedean copulas

The authors define a new semiparametric Archimedean copula family which has a flexible dependence structure. The generator of the family is a local interpolation of existing generators. It has locally‐defined dependence parameters. The authors present a penalized constrained least‐squares method to estimate and smooth these parameters. They illustrate the flexibility of their dependence model in a bi‐variate survival example.     

Nonparametric smoothing in the analysis of air pollution and respiratory illness

While most of epidemiology is observational, rather than experimental, the culture of epidemiology is still derived from agricultural experiments, rather than other observational fields, such as astronomy or economics. The mismatch is made greater as focus has turned to continue risk factors, multifactorial outcomes, and outcomes with large variation unexplainable by available risk factors. The analysis of such data is often viewed as hypothesis testing with statistical control replacing randomization. However, such approaches often test restricted forms of the hypothesis being investigated, such as the hypothesis of a linear association, when there is no prior empirical or theoretical reason to believe that if an association exists, it is linear. In combination with the large nonstochastic sources of error in such observational studies, this suggests the more flexible alternative of exploring the association. Conclusions on the possible causal nature of any discovered association will rest on the coherence and consistency of multiple studies. Nonparametric smoothing in general, and generalized additive models in particular, represent an attractive approach to such problems. This is illustrated using data examining the relationship between particulate air pollution and daily mortality in Birmingham, Alabama; between particulate air pollution, ozone, and SO₂ and daily hospital admissions for respiratory illness in Philadelphia; and between ozone and particulate air pollution and coughing episodes in children in six eastern U.S. cities. The results indicate that airborne particles and ozone are associated with adverse health outcomes at very low concentrations, and that there are likely no thresholds for these relationships.     

论工艺的观念和审美属性

工艺不仅是一种现象 ,而且还是一种精神。对工艺内涵的界定 ,如果仅凭直观 ,是不可能满足定义要求的。为了正确地把握工艺的本质 ,需要运用辩证的思维和发展的眼光 ,在精神层面展开研究。同时 ,将其纳入人类审美文化发展的广阔的视野 ,才能进一步看清工艺的审美属性 ,了解它的价值和意义     

长江三峡地区舟楫的主要功用和民俗文化

长江三峡地区自古以来就是水上交通和战略要道。舟楫对这一地区社会、经济的发展起着不可估量的重要作用。它不仅是这一地区运输的大动脉,更是旅游的主力军。此外舟楫与本地区的民俗和文化水乳交融,有着深厚的积淀和内涵,舟楫文化对该地区社会、文化的发展具有深远的影响和意义。     

Contre-exemple au théorème de P.C. Consul sur la factorisation des distributions de Poisson généralisées

This note exhibits two independent random variables on integers, X₁ and X₂, such that neither X₁ nor X₂ has a generalized Poisson distribution, but X₁ + X₂ has. This contradicts statements made by Professor Consul in his recent book.     

项目管理:基于生命周期和基于职能活动的管理

对应着项目的"一次性"和"多项活动复合性"的本质特征,项目管理有两种基本模式,即基于生命周期的项目管理和基于职能活动的项目管理,二者的内容体系不同,各有优劣,模式的选用要综合考虑项目的具体性质和企业的发展现状.     

大学文化建设探析

党的十七大把“加强文化建设，明显提高全民族文明素质”作为全面建设小康社会的新要求，发出“兴起社会主义文化建设新高潮”的号召。大学是传承、创新、引领文化的重要基地，理应在提升国家文化软实力方面发挥重要作用。文章针对存在对大学文化的模糊认识，对大学文化的若干要素，以及建设大学文化的原则要求等作了初步的分析和思考。     

经济发展、资源功能与中国的配置绩效

经济发展理论高度重视各种资源等劳动对象的开发利用。西方经济学的信仰者由于自身存在的认识论缺陷，难以科学认识劳动对象与经济发展的内在关系，进而也难以科学论述资源在发展理论及其模型中的作用和地位。因此，必须遵循马克思的方法论，从理论为实际的反映入手，建立科学的分析模型，以此指导中国经济发展方式的转变，建立生态与经济相协调的可持续发展的资源及能源支撑体系，调整、优化资源及能源的供给与需求结构。     

浅谈舞蹈教育在审美教育中的地位

从审美教育的本质入手,采用理论和实例相结合的方式以及依托个人在亲身工作体验中的感受,阐述了舞蹈教育中所体现的审美教育以及怎样在舞蹈教育中培养学生的审美能力等几方面的问题,说明了舞蹈教育在审美教育中所占有的相当重要的地位。     

青少年疏离感的特点及其与家庭功能的关系

通过对875名初一至高二学生的问卷调查,探讨了青少年疏离感发展的特点及其与家庭功能的关系。结果发现：（1）青少年的环境疏离感最高,其次是社会疏离感,人际疏离感最低。（2）高中生疏离感显著高于初中生,在每一年龄段内,疏离感随年级升高而增强;但青少年疏离感性别差异不显著。（3）家庭功能中的角色、沟通、情感反应和情感介入可以显著正向预测青少年的疏离感,问题解决和行为控制对青少年疏离感的预测不显著。